Data of the 1997–1998 epidemic of classical swine fever (CSF) in The Netherlands were analysed in survival analysis to identify risk factors that were associated with the rate of neighbourhood infections. The study population consisted of herds within 1000 m of exclusively one previously infected herd. Dates of virus introduction into herds were drawn randomly from estimated probability distributions per herd of possible weeks of virus introduction. (To confirm the insensitivity of the results for this random data-selection procedure, the procedure was repeated 9 times (resulting in 10 different datasets).) The dataset had 906 non-infected and 59 infected neighbour herds, which were distributed over 215 different neighbourhoods. Neighbour herds that never became infected were right-censored at the last date of the infectious period of the infected source herd. Neighbour herds that became empty within the infectious period or within the following 21 days due to preventive depopulation or due to the implemented buying-out programme were right-censored 21 days before the moment of becoming empty. This was done as a correction for the time a herd could be infected without being noticed as such.
The median time to identified infection of neighbour herds was 2 weeks, whereas the median time to right censoring of non-infected neighbour herds was 3 weeks. The risk factors, radial distance ≤500 m, cattle present on source herd and increasing herd size of the neighbour herd were associated multivariably with the hazard for neighbour herds to become infected. We did not find an association between time down wind and infection risk for neighbour herds. Radial dispersion of CSFV seemed more important in neighbourhood infections than dispersion along the road on which the infected source herd is situated. The results of this study support the strategy of preventive depopulation in the neighbourhood of an infected herd. Recommendations are presented to adapt the applied control strategy for neighbourhood infections. 相似文献
Two wild genotypes from the same species Lycopersicon pimpinellifolium, WVA106 (susceptible) and INRA-Hirsute (so-called ‘resistant’), were compared with respect to their reaction to Tomato yellow leaf curl virus isolate Réunion (TYLCV-Mld[RE]), using both whitefly-mediated inoculation and graft inoculation. Disease incidence and symptom
severity were scored. Presence and quantification of viral DNA were assessed by dot blot hybridisation. Upon insect inoculation,
accession INRA-Hirsute showed a moderate resistance against TYLCV that was overcome by a high inoculation pressure obtained
by increasing the cumulative number of inoculative whiteflies. Temporal analyses of the disease progress in relation to this
criterion exhibited that the protection was quantitative, mainly reducing the TYLCV-Mld[RE] incidence by at maximum 50% at
low inoculation pressure. When graft inoculated, the final TYLCV-Mld[RE] disease incidence was 100% in both susceptible and
resistant genotypes with severe symptoms, suggesting a reduction of virus transmission by a vector resistance as a possible
mechanism. Implications of using such type of resistance in breeding programmes are discussed. 相似文献
Tobamoviruses are serious pathogens because they have extremely stable virions, they are transmitted by contact, and they often induce severe disease in crops. Knowledge of the routes of transmission and resilience of tobamovirus virions is essential in understanding the epidemiology of this group of viruses. Here, an isolate of the tobamovirus yellow tailflower mild mottle virus (YTMMV) was used to examine root‐to‐root transmission in soil and in a hydroponic growth environment. Root‐to‐root transmission occurred rarely, and when it occurred plants did not exhibit systemic movement of the virus from the roots to the shoots over a 30‐day period. The resilience of YTMMV virions was tested in dried leaf tissue over time periods from one hour to one year under temperatures ranging from ?80 to 160 °C. Infectivity was maintained for at least a year when incubated at ?80 or 22 °C, or at fluctuating ambient temperatures of 0.8 to 44.4 °C, but incubation under dry conditions at 160 °C for >4 days eliminated infectivity. Exposure of virions to 0.1 m sodium hydroxide or 20% w/v skimmed milk solution for 30 min, treatments recommended for tobamovirus inactivation, did not abolish infectivity of YTMMV. 相似文献
Sustainability indices are proliferating, both to help synthesize scientific understanding and inform policy. However, it remains poorly understood how such indices are affected by underlying assumptions of the data and modelling approaches used to compute indicator values. Here, we focus on one such indicator, the fisheries goal within the Ocean Health Index (OHI), which evaluates the sustainable provision of food from wild fisheries. We quantify uncertainty in the fisheries goal status arising from the (a) approach for estimating missing data (i.e., fish stocks with no status) and (b) reliance on a data‐limited method (catch‐MSY) to estimate stock status (i.e., B/BMSY). We also compare several other models to estimate B/BMSY, including an ensemble approach, to determine whether alternative models might reduce uncertainty and bias. We find that the current OHI fisheries goal model results in overly optimistic fisheries goal statuses. Uncertainty and bias can be reduced by (a) using a mean (vs. median) gap‐filling approach to estimate missing stock scores and (b) estimating fisheries status using the central tendency from a simulated distribution of status scores generated by a bootstrap approach that incorporates error in B/BMSY. This multitiered approach to measure and describe uncertainty improves the transparency and interpretation of the indicator and allows us to better understand uncertainty around our OHI fisheries model and outputs for country‐level interpretation and use. 相似文献