Bayesian methods for estimating pathogen prevalence within groups of animals from faecal-pat sampling

Pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7 and Campylobacter spp. have been implicated in outbreaks of food poisoning in the UK and elsewhere. Domestic animals and wildlife are important reservoirs for both of these agents, and cross-contamination from faeces is believed to be responsible for many human outbreaks. Appropriate parameterisation of quantitative microbial-risk models requires representative data at all levels of the food chain. Our focus in this paper is on the early stages of the food chain-specifically, sampling issues which arise at the farm level. We estimated animal–pathogen prevalence from faecal-pat samples using a Bayesian method which reflected the uncertainties inherent in the animal-level prevalence estimates. (Note that prevalence here refers to the percentage of animals shedding the bacteria of interest). The method offers more flexibility than traditional, classical approaches: it allows the incorporation of prior belief, and permits the computation of a variety of distributional and numerical summaries, analogues of which often are not available through a classical framework. The Bayesian technique is illustrated with a number of examples reflecting the effects of a diversity of assumptions about the underlying processes. The technique appears to be both robust and flexible, and is useful when defecation rates in infected and uninfected groups are unequal, where population size is uncertain, and also where the microbiological-test sensitivity is imperfect. We also investigated the determination of the sample size necessary for determining animal-level prevalence from pat samples to within a pre-specified degree of accuracy.     

Density estimates of rural dog populations and an assessment of marking methods during a rabies vaccination campaign in the Philippines

We estimated the population density of dogs by distance sampling and assessed the potential utility of two marking methods for capture-mark-recapture applications following a mass canine rabies-vaccination campaign in Sorsogon Province, the Republic of the Philippines. Thirty villages selected to assess vaccine coverage and for dog surveys were visited 1 to 11 days after the vaccinating team. Measurements of the distance of dogs or groups of dogs from transect lines were obtained in 1088 instances (N = 1278 dogs; mean group SIZE = 1.2). Various functions modelling the probability of detection were fitted to a truncated distribution of distances of dogs from transect lines. A hazard rate model provided the best fit and an overall estimate of dog-population density of 468/km² (95% confidence interval, 359 to 611). At vaccination, most dogs were marked with either a paint stick or a black plastic collar. Overall, 34.8% of 2167 and 28.5% of 2115 dogs could be accurately identified as wearing a collar or showing a paint mark; 49.1% of the dogs had either mark. Increasing time interval between vaccination-team visit and dog survey and increasing distance from transect line were inversely associated with the probability of observing a paint mark. Probability of observing a collar was positively associated with increasing estimated density of the dog population in a given village and with animals not associated with a house. The data indicate that distance sampling is a relatively simple and adaptable method for estimating dog-population density and is not prone to problems associated with meeting some model assumptions inherent to mark-recapture estimators.     

家蚕一代杂交种成品卵微粒子病检疫抽样检查存在问题及解决方案

利用近年来集团抽样检查接收概率函数的研究成果,分析了家蚕一代杂交种成品卵微粒子病检疫抽样检查在信赖度的估算、集团检出率的考虑和样本量大小等方面存在的问题,提出了成品卵微粒子病检疫抽样检查方案制定的基本原则和相应的改进方案。新方案考虑了集团检出率、样本的代表性等问题,通过增加检验集团内的个体数减少了检验工作量,使消费者风险和生产者风险都得到有效控制。     

浅析出境竹制品检疫的三个关键点

湖州安吉县每年大量的竹制品出境,笔者针对当前竹制品检疫工作中产品水分含量、抽样方法、检疫项目这三个关键点,简要分析了存在的问题以及探讨解决的方法.     

马尾松球果小卷蛾幼虫混合种群空间分布型与抽样技术研究

马尾松球果小卷蛾幼虫混合种群空间分布型与抽样技术研究兰星平，杜凌（贵州省森林病虫检疫防治站贵阳５５０００１）（贵州省种苗站贵阳５５０００１）陈恩军，黄丽（林业部种苗总站北京１００７１４）（贵州黄平县横坡林场黄平５５６１００）关键词马尾松，种子园，球果...     

黄脊竹蝗空间格局及抽样技术的初步研究

本文采用聚集度指标法和回归分析法，对黄脊竹蝗在林间的空间格局进行测定，并采用刀切法给出了聚集度指标的估计区间，3次设计最优拟合提高了回归模型参数的精度；结果表明，黄脊竹蝗在林间为聚集分布，分布的基本成分是个体群。     

An inventory of Guadua (Guadua angustifolia) bamboo in the Coffee Region of Colombia

Management of renewable natural resources and the corresponding policy formulation should be founded on reliable data and information. This refers both to information on the resource itself and to information on the market situation. In this paper, we present methodology and major results of an inventory of the Guadua resources, in a study area of about 1 million ha within the Coffee Region of Colombia. This inventory produced for the first time sample-based statistical estimations of the Guadua area and growing stock. In the study area, land cover of Guadua patches was estimated to be 3.9% or about 40,000 ha (minimum patch area 0.3 ha). This is higher than figures published earlier. Estimation for mean number of standing culms (including shoots and dry culms) per hectare was 6,940 with a mean diameter at breast height of 10.8 cm, apparent commercial volume of 654 m3/ha, commercial wood volume of 304 m3/ha, oven-dry biomass of 311 ton/ha, and total carbon stock of 156 ton/ha. While the low-intensity sampling approach worked well and may serve as an example for similar studies, we identified a number of issues for further research, particularly in what refers to as the basic mensurational models for Guadua volume and biomass estimation from inventories.     

阶层抽样理论抽样数模型的简化

本文对阶层抽样的理论抽样数模型作了简化。简化后的模型计算简单,便于在生产上应用。