Consequences of climate change for European agricultural productivity, land use and policy

This paper reviews the knowledge on effects of climate change on agricultural productivity in Europe and the consequences for policy and research. Warming is expected to lead to a northward expansion of suitable cropping areas and a reduction of the growing period of determinate crops (e.g. cereals), but an increase for indeterminate crops (e.g. root crops). Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations will directly enhance plant productivity and also increase resource use efficiencies.

In northern areas climate change may produce positive effects on agriculture through introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. Disadvantages may be an increase in the need for plant protection, the risk of nutrient leaching and the turnover of soil organic matter. In southern areas the disadvantages will predominate. The possible increase in water shortage and extreme weather events may cause lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and a reduction in suitable areas for traditional crops. These effects may reinforce the current trends of intensification of agriculture in northern and western Europe and extensification in the Mediterranean and southeastern parts of Europe.

Policy will have to support the adaptation of European agriculture to climate change by encouraging the flexibility of land use, crop production, farming systems etc. In doing so, it is necessary to consider the multifunctional role of agriculture, and to strike a variable balance between economic, environmental and social functions in different European regions. Policy will also need to be concerned with agricultural strategies to mitigate climate change through a reduction in emissions of methane and nitrous oxide, an increase in carbon sequestration in agricultural soils and the growing of energy crops to substitute fossil energy use. The policies to support adaptation and mitigation to climate change will need to be linked closely to the development of agri-environmental schemes in the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Research will have further to deal with the effect on secondary factors of agricultural production, on the quality of crop and animal production, of changes in frequency of isolated and extreme weather events on agricultural production, and the interaction with the surrounding natural ecosystems. There is also a need to study combined effects of adaptation and mitigation strategies, and include assessments of the consequences on current efforts in agricultural policy to develop a sustainable agriculture that also preserves environmental and social values in the rural society.     

中国发展现代农业的对策选择

中国加入WTO后农业产业发展面临一个全新的国际环境。论述了发展现代农业的特征、分析了制约中国发展现代农业的症结因素,并提出了创新农业知识,建立现代农业科技体系,发展农业科技企业与农业产业化,将农业科技推向广度、深度,提高农民素质,培养知识型农民,优化生态系统,倡导持续、标准化农业和重视国际农业科技交流与合作等五个方面的对策选择。     

黄土丘陵沟壑区不同退耕类型径流、侵蚀效应及其时间变化特征

在自然降水条件下,连续14年对半干旱黄土丘陵沟壑区坡耕地及其4种退耕类型径流、侵蚀进行观测实验。结果表明:坡耕地退耕显著减少地表径流和土壤侵蚀,退耕类型之间径流量和侵蚀量存在显著差异,其大小次序为:农耕坡地>牧草地>乔木林地>自然草地>灌木林地。地表径流和侵蚀具有明显的季节分布特征,减流、减沙效应主要发生于7月和8月。牧草地累积减流、减沙效应随年度增加逐步下降,乔木林地的累积减流效应逐渐下降而减沙效应则逐步增加,灌木林地累积减流、减沙效应持续提高,自然草地则为先增长后降低的过程。14年观测结果表明:累积减流、减沙效应次序为:灌木林地>自然草地>乔木林地>牧草地。牧草地和乔木林地在短期具有较好的减流、减沙效应,而灌木林地和自然草地具有较好稳定持久的水土保持功能。     

Spatial and seasonal distribution of organic amendments affecting methane emission from Chinese rice fields

The effect of fertilizers on methane emission rates was investigated using an automated closed chamber system in Chinese rice fields (Human Province). Each of three experiments compared two fields treated with a first uniform fertilizer dose and a second fertilizer dose which was different for each of the two fields. The uniform fertilizer doses for both fields in each experiment comprised mineral (experiment 1), organic (experiment 2) and combined mineral plus organic components (experiment 3). In all three experiments the second fertilizer dose comprised organic amendments for field 1 and no organic amendments for field 2. The rate of increase in methane emission with a given amount of organic manure was found to depend on the total amount of organic manure applied. A single dose of organic manure increased the emission rates by factors of 2.7 to 4.1 as compared to fields without organic manure (experiment 1). In rice fields that had already been treated with organic manure, the application of a second dose of organic manure only slightly enhanced the emission rates in experiment 2 by factors of 1.1 to 1.5 and showed no detectable increase in experiment 3. The net reduction achieved by separation of organic and mineral fertilizers was maximized by concentrating the organic amendments in the season with low emission rates, i.e. early rice, and using exclusively mineral fertilizers on late rice when emission rates were generally higher. This distribution pattern, which was not associated with significant yield losses, resulted in an annual methane emission corresponding to only 56% of the methane emitted from fields treated with blended fertilizers.     

期权定价模型中几个重要比率的分析

评估期权价格的方法之一，就是分析期权定价模型中的参数，本文对“时间耗损因子”Theta值，期权价值相对于波动率、无风险利率变动比率的Vega值和Rho值，在已有的基础上进行了更加全面、深刻的分析，另外，本文首次讨论了期权价值变化相对于红利率和执行价格变化的比率Phi值和Tau值，在一定程度上，提高了我们正确运用期权定价模型的准确性和制定期权交易策略抗风险的能力。     

Pharmacokinetics and clinical efficacy of cyclosporine treatment of dogs with steroid-refractory inflammatory bowel disease

The usual treatment of dogs with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) consists of administration of immunosuppressive doses of steroids. However, some dogs are refractory to steroid treatment and pose a significant challenge to the veterinarian. Because cyclosporine A (cyA) has been shown to be effective in steroid-resistant IBD in humans, the purpose of this study was to investigate the pharmacokinetics and clinical efficacy of PO cyA treatment in dogs with steroid-refractory IBD (n = 14). All dogs were treated with cyA 5 mg/kg PO q24h for a period of 10 weeks. A clinical activity score was assigned to assess severity of clinical signs before and after treatment. The total number of infiltrating lymphocytes and T cells in duodenal biopsies were assessed before and after treatment in 9 dogs. In addition, serum concentration of cyA was measured in 8 dogs over a 24-hour period. Pharmacokinetic profiles in dogs with IBD were similar to those of healthy dogs. Improvement of clinical signs was observed in 12 of 14 dogs with IBD. Median clinical activity score after treatment with cyA was significantly reduced from a median score of 9 to a median score of 5 (P = 0.001). T cell numbers in duodenal biopsies were significantly decreased after treatment from a median +/- 95% range in the villous region of 28 (19-30) cells/10,000 microm2 before versus 7 (0-10)/10,000 microm2 after treatment, P = 0.01; and from a median +/- 95% range number in the crypt region of 15 (6-23) cells/10,000 microm2 before versus 4 (0-9)/10,000 microm2 after treatment, P = 0.02, implying T cell lysis as a possible mechanism of action. In conclusion, based on this small study, cyA appears to be an effective alternative drug in dogs with IBD that are refractory to immunosuppressive doses of steroids.     

农田温室气体N2O排放研究进展

N2O是重要的温室气体之一,1mol N2O的温室效应是CO2的150～200倍.在提倡发展“农业现代化即机械化+化学化”的模式下,农业已然成为温室气体排放的第二大排放源.综述了农田N2O的产生机制以及影响农田土壤N2O排放的相关因素,同时从对土壤养分控制的角度入手提出了相应的减排措施.     

Track Counts as a Means of Estimating Population Densities of Bushbuck

Counts of bushbuck tracks were used to estimate their population densities. Good correlations were obtained between various indices of track frequency and estimated absolute population density. The technique is therefore recommended for assessing the absolute density of a population. High sampling costs, however, disqualify the technique for detecting small changes in density.     

Contrasting the spatial management of nitrogen and phosphorus for improved water quality: Modelling studies in New Zealand and France

Critical source areas (CSAs) define areas of a farm or catchment that emit the majority of water quality contaminants but account for a minority of the area at a field, farm or catchment scale. Using process based modelling we tested the hypothesis that the definition and management of CSAs would decrease losses of phosphorus (P) in two New Zealand catchments and nitrogen (N) in a French catchment. In the New Zealand catchment, CSAs of P loss were isolated to small areas within fields commensurate with surface flow pathways, while in the French catchment, CSAs for N loss were influenced by factors (inputs and land use) relevant at a field (or multiple field) scale. Scenarios were tested that examined the management of CSAs versus whole field management for P, and decreasing N loss within CSAs by increasing the proportion of grassland fields and changing their location relative to cropland. The results showed that N losses decreased by up to 25% as more grassland was incorporated into the catchment, especially in wet areas near valley bottoms due to a longer growth period and better utilisation/storage of N than cropland. For P, focusing mitigation on CSAs decreased catchment losses to a similar degree as mitigations applied across the whole catchment, but was on average 6–7 times more cost-effective. Therefore, the definition and management of CSAs at an appropriate scale is recommended to improve water quality and minimise the impact on farm profitability.