绿洲农业作物生态─—经济优势分析及布局调整

本文以临河市绿洲农业为例，通过建立高产效益、生物量、等价产量、稳产性能、增产性能、综合性能、产值、光能利用率、热生产效率的隶属函数关系，用Ｆｕｚｚｙ向量Ａ和Ｆｕｚｚｙ矩阵Ｒ根据Ｂ＝Ａ·Ｒ的关系，首次分析了临河市绿洲农业粮经作物的生态经济优势。由此确定调整农作物结构数学比例关系，并结合生产实际提出了粮经作物的调整方案，为绿洲农业建设的作物初级生产力调控提供理论依据。     

Evaluation of uncalibrated preferential flow models against data for isoproturon movement to drains through a heavy clay soil

The uncalibrated predictive ability of four preferential flow models (CRACK‐NP, MACRO/MACRO_DB, PLM, SWAT) has been evaluated against point rates of drainflow and associated concentrations of isoproturon from a highly structured and heterogeneous clay soil in the south of England. Data were available for four plots for a number of storm events in each of three successive growing seasons. The mechanistic models CRACK‐NP and MACRO generally gave reasonable estimates of drainflow over the three seasons, but under‐estimated concentrations of isoproturon over a prolonged period in the first season and over‐estimated them in the two remaining seasons. CRACK‐NP simulated maximum concentrations of isoproturon over the first two events of each of the three seasons of 156, 527 and 24.4 µg litre^?1, respectively, and matched the observed data (465, 65.1 and 0.65 µg litre^?1) slightly better than MACRO (69.1, 566 and 58.5 µg litre^?1). Automatic selection of parameters from soils information within MACRO_DB reduced the emphasis on preferential flow relative to the stand‐alone version of MACRO. This gave a poor simulation of isoproturon breakthrough and simulated maximum concentrations were 0, 50.1 and 35.1 µg litre^?1, respectively. The capacity model PLM gave the best overall simulation of total drainflow for the first two events in each season, but over‐estimated concentrations of isoproturon (967, 808 and 51.3 µg litre^?1). The simple model SWAT represented total drainflow reasonably well and gave the best simulation of maximum isoproturon concentrations (140, 80.2 and 8.2 µg litre^?1). There was no clear advantage here in using the mechanistic models rather than the simpler models. None of the models tested was able to simulate consistently the data set, and uncalibrated modelling cannot be recommended for such artificially drained heavy clay soils. © 2001 Society of Chemical Industry     

Soil tillage for crop production and for protection of soil and environmental quality: a Scandinavian viewpoint

Based on experience from 35 years of tillage research in Sweden, future development of soil tillage is discussed and some research problems are identified. Tillage and seeding methods must be more carefully adapted to conditions at individual sites and occasions. Low-pressure typres, better weed control and improved seed coulters favour the increased use of reduced tillage. In order to diminish the impact of agriculture on the environment, it is necessary to develop methods for establishment of crops in the early spring or immediately after harvest, even in soils with large amounts of crop residues or high moisture content. The roles of tillage methods, and of soil compaction and structure on environmental impact of agriculture must be investigated. World food production must increase, since the world population is rapidly increasing. Therefore, it is necessary to develop improved crop production systems, including crop establishment systems, which favour efficient use of basic crop growth factors, while protecting or increasing soil productivity. Compaction, decreased organic matter content, and erosion are important long-term threats to soil productivity.     

Postcards from the past: charting the landscape-scale conversion of tropical Australian savanna to closed forest during the 20th century

Repeated sequences of digitised and geo-referenced historical aerial photography provide a powerful means of understanding landscape change. We use this method to demonstrate a landscape wide expansion of closed forest (42% increase in total coverage) in the Australian monsoon tropics over the past five decades. Retrospective habitat suitability models (HSI) of closed forest derived using four landscape measures (drainage distance, slope angle, aspect and elevation) for imagery taken in 1947 correctly forecast the subsequent spatial distribution of the expansion, with topographic fire protection primarily determining the closed-forest distribution. The dynamics of the closed forest-savanna boundary were predicted accurately by generalised linear models, with closed-forest expansion in fire-protected sites along forest edges and regression in the more fire-prone areas. Two factors may plausibly explain the expansion of closed forests. First, eco-ethnographic records stress the skilful use of fire by Aboriginal people in protecting isolated and locally resource-rich closed-forest patches. Second, the recent global increase in atmospheric CO₂ may be changing the competitive balance between savanna and forest by enabling C₃ trees to grow fast enough to escape the fire trap presented by flammable C₄ grasses.     

Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather

The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter, and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models (EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them, in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather, with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate the processes that link these factors to area burned. The US Government's and the Canadian Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license is acknowledged     

Agent-based land-use models: a review of applications

Agent-based modelling is an approach that has been receiving attention by the land use modelling community in recent years, mainly because it offers a way of incorporating the influence of human decision-making on land use in a mechanistic, formal, and spatially explicit way, taking into account social interaction, adaptation, and decision-making at different levels. Specific advantages of agent-based models include their ability to model individual decision-making entities and their interactions, to incorporate social processes and non-monetary influences on decision-making, and to dynamically link social and environmental processes. A number of such models are now beginning to appear—it is timely, therefore, to review the uses to which agent-based land use models have been put so far, and to discuss some of the relevant lessons learnt, also drawing on those from other areas of simulation modelling, in relation to future applications. In this paper, we review applications of agent-based land use models under the headings of (a) policy analysis and planning, (b) participatory modelling, (c) explaining spatial patterns of land use or settlement, (d) testing social science concepts and (e) explaining land use functions. The greatest use of such models so far has been by the research community as tools for organising knowledge from empirical studies, and for exploring theoretical aspects of particular systems. However, there is a need to demonstrate that such models are able to solve problems in the real world better than traditional modelling approaches. It is concluded that in terms of decision support, agent-based land-use models are probably more useful as research tools to develop an underlying knowledge base which can then be developed together with end-users into simple rules-of-thumb, rather than as operational decision support tools. This paper arises from research conducted as part of the UK Research Councils’ RELU Programme (award number RES-224-25-0102). RELU is funded jointly by the Economic and Social Research Council, the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council and the Natural Environment Research Council, with additional funding from the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs and the Scottish Executive Environment and Rural Affairs Department.     

Predicting non‐native fish dispersal under conditions of climate change: case study in England of dispersal and establishment of pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus in a floodplain pond

Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations.     

The fallacy of the missing middle: physics →…→ fisheries

In this paper I discuss some of the shortcomings of today's marine science in response to a recently published paper by Ann Gargett (1997). Three problem areas have been identified in the field linking climate forcing and fish production: First, the yet-to-be established observational proof for a relationship between the two; Second, the strongly neglected biology of organisms at evolutionary and ecological time scales; and thrird, the disregard for spatial and temporal scales in the discussion of mechanisms and supporting data.     

基于知识模型的作物适应性评价专家系统设计

系统引入了知识模型概念,建立了以知识模型为特征的知识系统,将知识工程、数据库有机结合,采用正向与反向相结合的推理控制策略,建立了基于知识模型的作物适应性评价专家系统,实现了作物适应性评价的计算机辅助决策,具有较强的跟踪解释能力。用本系统对江苏省地区小麦适应性还进行了实例分析。