THE INDUSTRIAL ORGANIZATIONS AND THE L-S-BUSINESS STRATEGIES

This papar presents an evolution model in business behaviors-the L-S Business Strategies,gives some examples and predictions which support these strategies,and analyzes the relationship between the industrial organizations in China and the L-S Business strategies.     

The Method of Diagnosing Brain-dysfunction Based on Membership Function and BP Neural Network

Membership functions.formed with the characteristic values obtained by applying the continuous reaction time (CRT) theory from controls and heptic encephalopthy and proposedin this paper.whith these membership functions,the CRT data to be diagnosed are calculated in advance,and then discriminated by BP meural network to differentiate patients with or without braindysfunction.The troubles of low accuracy and efficiency,encountered in training BP network withfuzzy samples.scattered data and extended samples,are solved.     

基于LS-SVM的小水电站年发电量智能预测模型

针对小水电站年发电量序列的特点,将最小二乘支持向量机(least squares support vector machine,LS-SVM)回归模型引入年发电量预测领域,并给出了相应的过程和算法。与常规基于人工神经网络(artificial neural net-works,ANN)的智能预测方法比较,该模型优点是明显的:①将神经网络迭代学习问题转化为直接求解多元线性方程;②整个训练过程中有且仅有一个全局极值点,确定了预测的稳定性。最后,一个实际的预测例子表明:该模型实现容易、预测准确,适用于小水电站预测。     

两种有效的预测方法理论分析及实践

预算实际上是一种建模,即根据过去和现在已有的信息建立一个从过去引伸到未来的模型。而时序分析法和灰色系统理论是两种有效的预测方法。为此,介绍了这两种预测方法的原理,并预测了新疆兵团的农机情况。其结果表明:未来10年,新疆农机总动力和投入将会有较大幅度的增长,而农业机械化程度将趋于最高值。     

全射流喷头水力尺寸对运转可靠性

从研究全射流喷头水力尺寸与可靠性的关系入手，寻找提高产品可靠性的方法。提出了影响喷头工作稳定可靠性的主要因素为主射流的附壁时间及主射流的附壁力。探讨了接嘴插拔深度及其内孔直径、作用区位差S、盖板出口位差H1和H2、出口间隙C等关键水力尺寸及其相互之间配合对主射流附壁时间及主射流的附壁力的影响，进而得出对喷头可靠性的影响。最后得出要使喷头运转稳定可靠，需对喷头的水力尺寸进行深入的研究，找出水力尺寸间的最佳组合。     

A comparative description of two farmer-managed irrigation systems in Nepal

The organization of two farmer-managed irrigation systems in the western hills of Nepal is described by examining the ways in which the activities of water allocation, water distribution, maintenance, and resource mobilization are performed. Due to the topography and environment, these two organizations are structured primarily to mobilize the large amount of labor required for maintenance of the intake and canal. Both organizations precisely define each member's water allocation. In one system, water is allocated in proportion to the area of an individual's land holding, while in the other water allocation is by purchased shares. These two cases were used to analyze the importance of the principle of water allocation for expansion of area irrigated and equity of access to irrigation. Evidence from the two systems shows that in this hill environment water allocation by purchased shares provides the individual incentive and an organizational mechanism for efficient development of irrigation resources. Expansion of area irrigated and equity of access to irrigation were found to be greater in the system which allocates water by purchased shares than where water was allocated in proportion to area irrigated.     

水产品收购价格预测的时序组合模型研究

我国水产品市场已经出现了区域性、结构性的供大于求及价格持续下降的现象。为此，对水产品价格进行预测是必要的。以1978～1999年数据为样本，利用时序组合模型对2000年的水产品收购价格进行了预测研究。     

万亩农田节水灌溉综合开发区的规划与效果

通过对开发区农田生态系统的综合论证,提出研究目标、技术决策和规划原则,采用水利、农业相结合的节水技术体系,运用汇水、输水、调水、配水相结合的方式,联合调用地表、地下水资源,提高水的利用率,为中低产贫水区大面积推广综合节水灌溉提供可行的技术模式。     

基于小波分析的年最大径流预测方

径流序列可以看成是各种不同成分线性叠加构成的时间序列。利用小波变换良好的局部化时频分析能力，将年最大径流序列进行分解，使其趋势项、周期项和随机项得以分离。各子序列分别代表不同的时间尺度，反映了各种物理因素对径流过程的影响。然后根据各子序列的特性分别建立幂函数、周期函数或ARMA模型并进行预测。最后将各子序列的预测值合成，得到年最大径流序列的预测值。对宜昌站1991年至2002年最大径流量的预测结果表明，该方法是切实可行的。并指出小波包变换在分析中、高频信息方面优于小波变换，有助于进一步提高预测的精度。     

Resource allocation tradeoffs in Manila’s peri-urban vegetable production systems: An application of multiple objective programming

This paper designed and developed a multi-objective programming (MOP) model to illustrate the dynamic relationship among technologies, productive activities, constraints and farmers’ objectives in the peri-urban vegetable production system and use the model as an economic tool in analysing probable consequences of a given action or innovation on the farm. The best compromise solution was generated using four analytical steps, as follows: single-objective optimization (to determine the ideal and anti-ideal values of the objective functions); constrained optimization (to generate the set of Pareto non-dominated solutions); cluster analysis (to trim down efficient set into smaller homogeneous groups); and compromise programming (to determine where the best compromise solution lies).