Contracts of risk sharing of the enterprise, the employee and the dealer

The output of the enterprise changes with the change of natural states, therefore it brings relatively great risk to enterprise. The enterprise hopes to reduce the same kind of risk through more contracts than one kind of contract of risk sharing. This paper presents a new method to disperse the same kind of risk in two kinds of ways. Basing on principal-agent theory, through the optimum contract of risk sharing, the Pareto-optimum solving is solved-the optimum contract of risk sharing. The employee shares some risks through the optimum contract of risk sharing between the enterprise and the employee-when the output is high, the employee's income increases; when the output is low, the income decreases. In order to reduce the risk of the enterprise further, the dealer also shares the risk. To maximize the utility of the enterprise, the Pareto optimum solving is given-another optimum contract of risk. The dealer offers following contract of risk sharing to the enterprise-when the output is high, the dealer receives the repayment; when the output is low, the enterprise is compensated. The enterprise, the employee and the dealer share the risk together, thus the risk of the enterprise is reduced to relatively great degree.     

Application of Multivariate Statistics in Early-warning of Corporation Financial Crisis

This paper is focused on early warning of corporation financial crisis for the China's household electric appliance manufacturers in stock market. Firstly, using company's open-disclosed annual statements as data resource, the financial indexes system is constructed. Secondary, adopting the multivariable statistical analysis method, such as cluster, discriminate and principle component analysis, the multivariate models for the empirical study on early warning of financial crisis by making use of SPSS statistical software are set up. The corporation might discover the financial affairs crisis that shall probably arise beforehand by using the financial affairs crisis early warning system. This study and analysis may serve as reference for domestic industries and enterprises.     

Analysis of Causes and Impacts of Soft Budget Constraints of Enterprises Based on Dynamic Game for Three Players

This paper researches the behavior difference among government,banks and enterprises and how it affects soft budget constraints of enterprises and non-performing loans of banks based with dynamic game.The game model suggests that government will give banks some assistance and let them refinance enterprises,especially government has strong(incentive) to sustain SOEs in China's transitional economy.Banks will do it if the assistance from government is more than the loss from refinance enterprises.In addition the value of liquidation of enterprises and the new loans affect banks' refinancing old enterprises.     

河道堤防设计高程的概率设计和风

介绍河道堤防设计高程的概率和风险校核方法。该方法综合考虑多种不确定性因素的影响，利用随机微分方程推求河道水位的概率分布，并对风浪的随机影响进行分析，按照随机可靠性理论，对常规采用确定性方法确定的河道堤防高程进行漫顶风险校核和可靠性设计。     

基于Landsat数据的条件植被温度指数升尺度转换方法

以陕西省关中平原为研究区域,应用点扩散函数、混合像素面积权重法和中值像素变异权重法将基于Landsat卫星遥感数据反演的分辨率为30 m的条件植被温度指数(VTCI)干旱监测结果上推至930 m的干旱监测结果,并与Aqua MODIS数据反演的分辨率为930 m的VTCI干旱监测结果进行对比分析,以期为两种空间尺度的干旱监测结果的综合应用提供技术支持。以MODIS数据反演的VTCI为参考,应用相关系数、均方根误差、半变异函数的估计值和图像纹理特征等对尺度上推的VTCI进行评价。结果表明,点扩散函数和混合像素面积权重法的尺度上推效果均较好,而中值像素变异权重法的尺度上推效果较差,说明点扩散函数和混合像素面积权重法均适用于研究区域VTCI干旱监测结果的尺度转换,且点扩散函数的数据处理过程更为简单。典型样点VTCI的尺度上推结果表明,空间异质性越小,尺度上推的结果越好。     

基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价研究

风险评价是风险管理的重要阶段,针对农产品加工企业特点,提出了一种基于模糊层次分析法的农产品加工企业风险评价方法。该方法初步解决了农产品加工企业风险管理中的关键问题——风险因素的识别。以某农产品加工公司为例,介绍了该方法的应用过程。     

农村污染缓流水体的修复研究

农村缓流水体是维系乡村生态平衡的重要组成部分, 水质污染已成为国内乡村缓流水体普遍现状。讨论了农村缓流水体的污染成因，并以水生植物大漂为水体修复主体，进行了大漂的水体修复特性的试验，讨论了在可控条件下用大漂对缓流污染水体进行修复治理的植物修复技术及大漂在水体修复中可能带来的生态风险及其防范。