蜀南竹海旅游环境容量的测算及分析

旅游环境容量的研究能为区域旅游开发和管理提供科学依据。以蜀南竹海为例,通过实地走访获取有关数据,从旅游生态、设施、空间以及社会环境容量4 个方面分别对该景区的旅游环境容量进行计算,结果表明：社会环境容量（9150 人次/日）最大,生态环境容量（7766 人次/日）次之,空间环境容量（4908 人次/日）和设施环境容量（4000 人次/日）相当,结合木桶原则和专家赋分权重,估算出蜀南竹海旅游环境容量为276 万人/年,与近期景区游客接待量相比,仍有较大挖掘潜力。为此,结合景区实际,从鼓励景区内使用公共交通工具、加强垃圾分类管理、优化旅游线路、实行景区弹性门票价格等方面,提出了可行性建议,为实现景区旅游业的可持续发展提供理论参考。     

基于负荷历时曲线估算新疆河流泥沙通量的方法

目前,准确估算河流泥沙通量是实施河流泥沙总量控制的前提。以新疆北疆河流1980年的含沙量资料为基础,基于负荷历时曲线方法计算泥沙通量,分析泥沙通量的年际变化及其影响因素,探讨基于负荷历时曲线通量估算的不确定性、适用性。得出基于负荷历时曲线的通量估算方法能较准确估算新疆河流泥沙通量,可为新疆河流泥沙通量的研究提供新思路,为泥沙防治工作提供理论依据,具有一定的学术意义和应用价值。     

黑龙江省农机购置补贴工作实施成效及建议

介绍近几年黑龙江省农机购置补贴工作的实施措施和成效,指出购机补贴工作中存在的问题．并对今后的农机购置补贴工作提出几点建议,以促进全省农机结构更加趋向合理化,推动农业机械化水平进一步提高,实现粮食增产、农业增效、农民增收。     

基于Alpha稳定分布的滚动轴承故障信号分析

提出了基于Alpha稳定分布的统计模型的滚动轴承故障信号分析方法,这种非高斯模型可以准确地描述具有脉冲特性的轴承故障信号。不同故障程度的轴承故障信号的特征指数α由Alpha稳定分布参数估计方法计算得到。实验结果表明,轴承故障信号属于Alpha稳定过程,各轴承故障信号的Alpha稳定密度分布在双对数坐标图中,适合经验概率密度分布以及它们的尾部都具有相同的重尾行为,表明这种统计模型对于不同故障程度的轴承信号都是有效的。     

大豆蚜为害损失估计数学模型研究

根据前人提出的为害量、为害当量观点,提出连续种群下为害当量的含义,给出为害当量的理论模型,修正了累计蚜量的偏差,提出产量损失估计的数学表达式,讨论了模型参数的田间设计方法。     

Ancillary data supply strategies for improvement of temperature-based ETo ANN models

The development of new and more precise models for reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) estimation from minimum climatic data is mandatory, since the application of existing methods that provide acceptable results is limited to those places where large amounts of reliable climatic data are available. The performance quality of empirical equations and their local calibrations is to be questioned in a large variety of climatic contexts. As an alternative to traditional techniques, artificial neural networks (ANNs) are highly appropriate for the modelling of non-linear processes, which is the case of evapotranspiration. Nevertheless, temperature-based ANN models do not always provide accurate enough ET_o estimations and their performance depends highly on the specific relationships temperature-ET_o of the studied continental context. This paper describes the performance improvement of temperature-based ANN models through the consideration of exogenous ET_o records as ancillary inputs in different continental contexts of the autonomous Valencia region, on the Spanish Mediterranean coast. The influence on the model performance of the number of considered ancillary stations and the corresponding number of training patterns is also analysed. Finally, this performance is compared with existing empirical and ANN temperature-based models. The proposed models can be used with high accuracy not only for infilling purposes, but also for estimating ET_o outside the training station. Concerning models which demand scant climatic inputs, the proposed model provides performances with lower associated errors than the currently existing temperature-based models, which only consider local data. The local performance of the model presents 0.084 of average absolute relative error (AARE). The external performance of the model presents 0.1072 of AARE.     

陕南地区主要生态环境问题及其潜在影响初探

阐述了陕南地区目前所存在的水土流失、地质灾害频发,环境污染防治水平低等主要生态环境问题的现状。采用替代市场价值法、影子工程法、恢复费用法和补偿价值法,分别估算了每年因土壤侵蚀的养分损失,河道（水库）清淤费用,退耕还林补偿费以及工程性缺水对该地区发展可能造成的潜在经济损失,并分析了其对我国南水北调中线工程水质的可能影响。在此基础上,提出了加强水土保持,水源地保护等加速地区生态环境建设的方法,实施居民避让搬迁和生态移民工程、环境污染综合治理等解决陕南地区生态环境问题的对策。     

极端天气影响下城镇洪水水位快速估计与淹没分析

由于城镇化的快速发展和极端天气影响,土地利用与防洪安全的矛盾日益突出,城镇洪涝风险增加。以四川省渠县为研究区域,综合运用历史洪水记录与多年水文观测数据重建洪水水位数据序列,快速估计城镇洪水水位并进行淹没分析。通过分析洪水频率与水位的关系、洪水水位差以及不同位置洪峰相关性,更新渠县沿江主要城镇各重现期洪水水位;结合沿江城镇发展定位和预期人口规模,重新核定防护等级和防洪标准。结果表明:渠县主要城镇的洪水水位较历史水平平均上升40 cm,其中100年一遇、50年一遇和10年一遇洪水水位分别上升至254.75,253.48,250.54 m。根据国家防洪标准,渠县主城区和三汇镇的防洪重现期标准应分别提高至50年一遇和20年一遇,其他沿江城镇和乡村的防洪重现期标准保持为10年一遇。与现行防洪标准相比,提高设防标准可减少农地淹没面积超过30 km²,减少建设用地淹没面积7~8 km²。     

Vegetative protein and its relation to grain protein in high and low grain protein winter wheats

Summary Better understanding of the physiological and genetic basis of wheat grain protein will contribute to breeding efforts for this characteristic. This study provides information about plant protein distribution in high and low grain protein winter wheats (Triticum aestivum L.) at different growth stages and its relation to grain protein. Field experiments involved two winter wheats with high grain protein, Redwin and Lancota, and two with low grain protein, Centurk and Brule in two years. Protein content in the head, the upper three leaves, the first and second leaf, and the peduncle were estimated with Near Infrared Reflectance Spectrophotometer (NIR) at five growth stages. High protein cultivars had higher leaf protein at ripe and higher protein content in the heads at most growth stages than low grain protein cultivars. High protein cultivars had lower protein content in the peduncle than low protein cultivars at ripe. Correlation coefficients between plant-part protein and grain protein ranged from 0.48 to 0.87 for the heads, from –0.45 to –0.79 for the peduncle, and from 0.55 to 0.84 for the leaves. A combination of head, peduncle, and first leaf protein at heading was significantly related to grain protein (R²=0.71). Indirect selection for head, peduncle, and first leaf (flag leaf) protein at heading should result in increased grain protein. Recurrent selection for increased grain protein, with parent selectionbefore anthesis and hybridization should be successful.     

基于粒子群优化投影寻踪的玉米单产估测

为了提高玉米单产估测精度,以河北省中部平原为研究区域,以与玉米长势和产量密切相关的条件植被温度指数(vegetation temperature condition index,VTCI)和叶面积指数(leaf area index,LAI)为遥感特征参数,通过投影寻踪法确定玉米主要生育时期VTCI和LAI的权重,进而构建基于县域尺度加权VTCI和LAI与玉米单产间的线性回归模型。结果表明,同时构建加权VTCI和LAI与玉米单产间的回归模型的精度最高,达到极显著水平(P0.001)。与变异系数法相比,基于投影寻踪法所建双参数回归模型的精度较高,研究区域各县(区)估测单产与实际单产的平均相对误差降低了0.88个百分点,均方根误差降低了50.56kg/hm2。通过投影寻踪法构建的双参数回归模型对研究区域玉米单产进行估测,结果表明研究区域玉米单产具有西部单产最高、北部和南部次之、东部最低的空间分布特征,以及在研究年份间玉米单产在波动中呈先下降后上升趋势的时间演变特征。