Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

新疆棉区转Bt基因棉对棉田主要害虫及其天敌种群数量的影响

20 0 0～ 2 0 0 1年 ,在新疆棉区系统地研究了转Bt基因棉田主要害虫及其天敌的发生规律。结果表明 :转Bt基因棉对棉铃虫有良好的控制作用 ,发生高峰期百株落卵量和百株幼虫数量都显著低于常规对照 ,转Bt自控田和转Bt化防田棉蚜和棉盲蝽发生数量则显著高于常规棉对照田。在天敌方面 ,转Bt自控田和转Bt化防田较常规棉对照田 ,丽草蛉种群数量有所增加 ,而小花蝽和黑食蚜盲蝽等 5种捕食性和几种寄生性天敌数量都有所下降。转Bt基因棉田棉蚜和棉盲蝽等刺吸性害虫发生数量加重而多种天敌数量减少的趋势值得引起重视。鉴于新疆地区棉铃虫发生数量较低目前无需专门防治的特点 ,作者建议 :可以考虑推广农艺性状较好的常规棉品种并保护天敌 ,以达到控制害虫、丰产丰收的目的。     

Pest Management in Traditional Tropical Agroecosystems: Lessons for Pest Prevention Research and Extension

Based on current agroecological theory and IPM practices, this review explores the role of traditional practices, involving site selection, soil management, timing of planting and harvesting, crop resistance, intercropping, weed management, harvest residue management, post-harvest management, natural enemies management, mechanical control, repellents and traps in the natural regulation of potential pests. In synthesis, the literature suggests that although pest management professionals focus their efforts on pest control, the preventative approach taken by traditional farmers is more effective. Potential constraints to the implementation of this preventive pest management approach include:(1) lack of integration of ecological theory and pest management, (2) lack of cooperation among social and biological scientists, and (3) lack of real efforts to work with farmers as equals and support mechanisms that protect their knowledge. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

塔里木河干流中游灌区退耕封育效益分析

塔里木河干流中游灌区退耕封育的规模为 9× 10 3 hm2 ,其中 ,库灌区退耕 1.4 2× 10 3 hm2 ,河灌区退耕 3.5 7× 10 3 hm2 ,泵灌区退耕 4 .0 1× 10 3 hm2 。退耕封育后 ,农田灌溉用水改为生态灌溉用水 ,用水量减少。人工种植的农作物被天然野生植被所替代 ,同时可提高对保留耕地的利用率 ,扩大耕地的播种面积 ,增加地表植被的覆盖度。退耕封育后 ,可节约水量 0 .97× 10 8m3 ,除满足封育生态用水外 ,还可增加塔里木河下泄水量 0 .31× 10 8m3 。     

Variation and distribution of virulence phenotypes of Bremia lactucae in natural populations of Lactuca serriola

During 1997–2000 the virulence variation and distribution of virulence phenotypes of Bremia lactucae (lettuce downy mildew) in natural populations of Lactuca serriola (prickly lettuce) were studied. Altogether 139 isolates of B. lactucae originating from the Czech Republic, France and Germany were examined for the presence of 27 virulence factors (v-factors) and their combinations. In the Czech population, 37 different v-phenotypes (P1–P37) of B. lactucae were found to occur on L. serriola . Most v-phenotypes were characterized by v-factors that match resistance ( Dm genes/R-factors) carried by L. serriola . A wide diversity of v-phenotypes was recorded every year, but most were rare and did not reappear in other populations of B. lactucae . The three v-phenotypes P21, P28 and P29 were most frequent and widely distributed. There was variation both between spatially isolated populations and within populations of the pathogen. Geographic differences in virulence were found for the southern parts of Moravia, where the phenotypic composition of pathogen populations was completely different from the remaining part of the area investigated. However, some populations had v-phenotypes similar to those of spatially distant populations in Moravia.     

生物牛黄中间体的抗病毒作用及对家兔血液流变学指标的影响

运用比较药理学方法研究了生物牛黄中间体与天然牛黄、人工牛黄在抗病毒及对家兔血液流变学指标影响方面的不同。结果显示，生物牛黄中间体以25、50、100mg／kg体质量及人工牛黄50mg／kg体质量灌胃给药的大鼠含药血清，灭活后，在10倍稀释的情况下，在鸡胚成纤维细胞上使新城疫Ⅰ系疫苗毒的TCID50升高1个滴度；生理盐水组、天然牛黄50mg／kg体质量组10倍稀释大鼠含药血清，灭活后，在鸡胚戍纤维细胞上使新城疫Ⅰ系疫苗毒的TCID50降低1.5个滴度。生物牛黄中间体以25、50、100mg／kg体质量灌胃给药，可明显降低高分子右旋糖酐所致“血瘀”家兔的血沉值、血沉方程K值和红细胞聚集指数；天然牛黄50mg／kg体质量组对血沉值和血沉方程K值具有显著降低作用；人工牛黄50mg／kg体质量组时血沉值具有显著降低作用。     

近15年新疆伊犁河谷草地退化时空变化特征

以伊犁河谷为研究区,利用MODIS NDVI数据及像元二分模型,反演草地植被覆盖度,以草地植被覆盖度为评价标准,结合数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)数据及Getis-Ord Gi*冷/热点分析方法,对伊犁河谷2001-2015年草地退化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,1)受持续过度放牧及气候条件影响,2001-2015年伊犁河谷草地整体持续退化,15年内退化草地比例达46.18%,但退化以轻度为主;2)空间上退化草地的分布范围逐步向高海拔区域扩展,海拔1 500-3 000 m的中山和中高山区退化草地扩张最明显;3)草地生态保护政策的实施减缓了草地退化速度,草地退化与改善的空间差异逐渐明显,以退化为主的单一变化趋势有所改变;4)利用NDVI反演植被覆盖度对草地退化进行评价的方法存在对高植被覆盖区域草地退化敏感性相对较弱的缺陷。     

天然生胶杂质含量测量结果不确定度评定

根据GB/T 8086—2008规定的测定方法,分析了测定过程中的随机效应与系统效应,计算这两种效应对测定过程导致的不确定度和,最终对本方法所产生的不确定度给予综合评定。     

基于“3S”技术的辽宁省某尾矿库扩容工程生态影响预测与评价

以辽宁省某尾矿库为例,基于GIS技术,利用2010年的TM遥感影像及地形图,预测该尾矿库扩容后的生态影响。分析结果显示:尾矿库扩容工程对生态的影响主要体现在土地利用、植被、生态景观和地形地貌的变化4个方面。     

湖南桃花源国家森林公园森林景观改造规划

通过对湖南桃花源国家森林公园植被及森林景观的现状分析,在剖析其设计理念与构思的基础上,结合森林公园总体规划布局,采取补植、封育、更新、抚育、综合改造等具体植被改造措施,达到绿化、美化、多样化的森林景观的提质改造建设目标。