Predictions for the timing and use of culling or vaccination during a foot-and-mouth disease epidemic

First-fortnight incidence (FFI) is a modelling parameter that can be used to predict both the prevalence and duration of a foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) epidemic at regional and national levels. With an indication of how long an epidemic may last by the end of week two, it becomes possible to estimate whether vaccination would be economically viable from the start of an epidemic. Where FFI indicates that an epidemic is unlikely to last for as long as an export ban on agricultural produce, it may be inappropriate to implement a policy of 'vaccination to live'. Alternatively where FFI indicates that an epidemic will equal or exceed the ban length, then the benefits of vaccination should be considered at an early stage, during or after the first fortnight. Since blanket vaccination of the national or regional herds and flocks would be both costly and heighten the risk of producing carrier animals, targetting vaccination through risk assessment becomes useful.     

A longitudinal study to identify constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in Northern Vietnam

The objective of the study was to investigate constraints to dairy cattle health and production in rural smallholder communities in northern Vietnam, one of the target areas of the Vietnam government's dairy development programme. A total of 99 dairy farms (11 per commune) were recruited from 9 of 32 communes in Ba Vi District, using random two-stage cluster sampling. After the initial questionnaire interviews were conducted, farms were visited at three monthly intervals over a period of 1 year. Information on several health and production parameters relating to the study cattle was collected. Using multiple indicator modelling, it was found that Fasciola infestation, farmers who had been involved in dairying for longer (not indicative of better management skills), larger herd size, and cattle being kept in a shed were linked to reduced reproductive performances.     

Pharmacokinetic-Pharmacodynamic Modelling of Danofloxacin in Turkeys

Colibacillosis is a systemic disease responsible for important economic losses in poultry breeding; fluoroquinolones, including danofloxacin, are used to treat diseased animals. The purpose of the present study was to estimate pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) surrogates for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity and bacterial elimination against Escherichia coli O78/K80, using a PK-PD approach, for danofloxacin in turkeys after oral administration. Eight healthy turkeys, breed BUT 9, were included in a two-way crossover study. The drug was administered intravenously (i.v.) and orally at a dose rate of 6 mg/kg bw. The values of the elimination half-life and the total body clearance after i.v. administration were 8.64 ± 2.35 h and 586.76 ± 136.67 ml kg^-1h^-1, respectively. After oral administration, the values of the absolute bioavailability and the elimination half-life were 78.37± 17.35% and 9.74± 2.93 h, respectively. The minimum inhibitory concentration against the investigated strain in turkey serum was 0.25 μg/ml, four times higher than in broth. The lowest effective ex vivo AUC₂₄/MIC ratios required for bacteriostasis, bactericidal activity, and total killing of E. coliO78/K80 were 0.416 h, 1.9 h and 6.73 h, respectively. The oral dose of 6 mg/kg used in the present study could be interpreted as being sufficient to eliminate E. coli with an MIC 0.25 μ g/ml. However, considering the demand that antimicrobial resistance should be avoided by complete bacterial elimination, PK-PD considerations suggest that an even higher dose of 32 mg/kg per day or 0.7 mg/kcal per day should be evaluated in clinical trials.     

Ecdysteroid receptor docking suggests that dibenzoylhydrazine-based insecticides are devoid of any deleterious effect on the parasitic wasp Psyttalia concolor (Hym. Braconidae)

BACKGROUND: The moulting accelerating compounds (MACs) or ecdysteroid agonists represent a selective group of insecticides acting upon binding to the ecdysteroid receptor (EcR) and leading to lethal premature moulting in larval stages and aborted reproduction in adults. Psyttalia concolor Szèpl. is a useful parasitic wasp attacking important tephritid pests such as the medfly and olive fruit fly. RESULTS: Contact and oral exposure in the laboratory of female parasitic wasps to the dibenzoylhydrazine‐based methoxyfenozide, tebufenozide and RH‐5849 did not provoke negative effects. No mortality and no reduction in beneficial capacity were observed. The ligand‐binding domain (LBD) of the EcR of P. concolor was sequenced, and a homology protein model was constructed which confirmed a cavity structure with 12 α‐helices, harbouring the natural insect moulting hormone 20‐hydroxyecdysone. However, a steric clash occurred for the MAC insecticides owing to a restricted extent of the ligand‐binding cavity of the PcLBD‐EcR, while they did dock well in that of susceptible insects. CONCLUSIONS: The insect toxicity assays demonstrated that MACs are selective for P. concolor. The modelling/docking experiments are indications that these insecticides do not bind with the LBD‐EcR of P. concolor and support the theory that they show no biological effects in the parasitic wasp. These data may help in explaining the compatible use of MACs together with parasitic wasps in IPM programmes. Copyright © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry     

Derivation of stumpage value and logging costs for individual forest stands using aerial photographs and cartographic modelling

A procedure for calculation of stumpage value and logging costs of individual mature forest stands using aerial photo‐interpretation and a grid‐based geographical information system (GIS) is presented. The stumpage value may be computed from characteristics related to the trees, i.e. site index, stand mean height, crown closure, and tree species distribution, using price equations. By means of cost equations, the logging costs may be calculated from the tree characteristics and the terrain characteristics of slope gradient and skidding distance. The practical application of the procedure was demonstrated by a case study in a 710 ha forest area in southern Norway. The tree characteristics were determined by photo‐interpretation of individual stands. Skid paths for wood transportation from the stands to landings along the forest roads were delineated by photo‐interpretation of the ground conditions. Slope and skidding distances were derived by a digital elevation model and cartographic modelling. Finally, the photo‐interpreted tree characteristics and the computed slope and skidding distances were used for calculation of the stumpage value and the logging costs of each stand. According to previous tests, the accuracy of the procedure corresponded to the accuracy that could be achieved by the field‐survey methods used most frequently.     

Community-based alternative breeding plans for indigenous sheep breeds in four agro-ecological zones of Ethiopia

Based on the results of participatory approaches to define traits in the breeding objectives, four scenarios of ram selection and ram use were compared via deterministic modelling of breeding plans for community-based sheep breeding programmes in four diverse agro-ecological regions of Ethiopia. The regions (and production systems) were Afar (pastoral/agro-pastoral), Bonga and Horro (both mixed crop-livestock) and Menz (sheep-barley). The schemes or scenarios differed in terms of selection intensity and duration of ram use. The predicted genetic gains per year in yearling weight (kilograms) were comparable across the schemes but differed among the breeds and ranged from 0.399 to 0.440 in Afar, 0.813 to 0.894 in Bonga, 0.850 to 0.940 in Horro, and 0.616 to 0.699 in Menz. The genetic gains per year in number of lambs born per ewe bred ranged from 0.009 to 0.010 in both Bonga and Horro. The predicted genetic gain in the proportion of lambs weaned per ewe joined was nearly comparable in all breeds ranging from 0.008 to 0.011. The genetic gain per year in milk yield of Afar breed was in the order of 0.018 to 0.020 kg, while the genetic gain per generation for greasy fleece weight (kg) ranged from 0.016 to 0.024 in Menz. Generally, strong selection and shorter duration of ram use for breeding were the preferred options. The expected genetic gains are satisfactory but largely rely on accurate and continuous pedigree and performance recording.     

Effect of edge stands on the development of young Pinus sylvestris stands in southern Finland

Abstract

The quantitative effect of pine-dominated edge stands in southern Finland on the density and growth of pine saplings was addressed in the study. The cumulative effect of a mature edge stand on the development of a pine sapling stand with variable cutblock sizes was also estimated. The data were acquired from 10 study sites with a Scots pine sapling stand with a current dominant height of 1–6 m and an adjoining middle-aged to mature edge stand dominated by Scots pine. Tree level models were constructed to describe and simulate the structure and development of the sapling stands. The results indicated that dividing an average regeneration area (2 ha) into smaller cutblock units (1.0–0.5 ha) appreciably increased the edge stand effect. Total stand volume growth was 6% lower on 1 ha cutblocks, and 31% lower on 0.5 ha blocks, than on 2 ha blocks.     

Obituaries

Uittreksel

Die groeifunksies benodig vir die simulasie van produksie van ‘n Themeda triandra‐grasveld met behulp van die PUTU 11 simulasiemodel is ontwikkel. Vir die ontwikkeling van die model is die veldproduksiedata van die 1980/81 groeiseisoen gebruik waarna dit suksesvol, vir drie groeiseisoene met uiteenlopende klimaatstoestande, getoets is. In die model is koolhidraatverdeling tussen verskillende plantdele gesimuleer deur van verskillende funksies vir elke groeistadium gebruik te maak. Die hipotese is gestel dat die verskillende plantdele na ‘ n gewenste massaverhouding tot die totale plantmassa streef deur die translokasie van koolhidrate. ‘n Beperkte maksimum tempo van translokasie in en uit plantdele is gestel. Die werklike translokasietempo verander sigmoidaal met die relatiewe massaverhoudingafwyking.     

Prediction of enteric methane production from dairy cows

Abstract

The main objective of this study was to elucidate the potential for prediction of enteric methane (CH₄) emissions from dairy cows by using predicted rumen plus hindgut digested (fermented nutrients) and total tract digested nutrients (by using NorFor) as input variables. Twenty-one experiments (78 dietary treatments) were collected. The data-set was used to develop prediction models and to test their and extant models ability to predict enteric CH₄ emissions. Models were compared based on mean squared prediction error and concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) analysis. Fermented nutrients did not predict enteric CH₄ emissions adequately (CCC < 0.420). Including total digested (td) nutrients in the model [CH₄ (MJ/d) = ?2.13 + 1.64 tdOM (kg/d) ?9.74 tdFat (kg/d) + 1.64 tdNDF (kg/d)] predicted enteric CH₄ emissions more precisely (CCC = 0.733), and showed an improvement in the prediction of enteric CH₄ emissions over the extant models tested.