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21.
渔业数据失真对两种非平衡剩余产量模型评估结果的影响比较 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
为了研究渔业数据失真对两种非平衡剩余产量模型评估结果的影响,以南大西洋长鳍金枪鱼渔业产量和单位捕捞努力量渔获量(CPUE)数据作为基础数据,加入5种不同程度[变异系数(CV)=1%、5%、10%、20%和30%]的随机误差,模拟了(1)无数据失真,(2)仅产量数据失真,(3)仅CPUE数据失真,(4)产量和CPUE数据均失真等4种情况。利用基于ASPIC的非平衡剩余产量模型(ASM)和基于贝叶斯状态空间建模方法的非平衡剩余产量模型(BSM)分别评估了最大可持续产量(MSY)、B_(MSY)、F_(MSY)、B_(2011)/B_(MSY)、F2011/F_(MSY)等5种生物学参考点和管理指标。结果显示,在无数据失真情况下,ASM和BSM评估的MSY分别为2.866×10~4 t和2.836×10~4 t,B_(2011)/B_(MSY)分别为1.366和1.324,F2011/F_(MSY)分别为0.627和0.667,均相差不大,表明该渔业目前状态良好,ASM得到了较大的B_(MSY)(31.48×10~4 t)和较小的F_(MSY)(0.091);数据失真对ASM评估的B_(MSY)和F_(MSY)分别产生了严重的过低估计和过高估计,且CPUE数据失真产生的影响要比产量数据失真大;随着随机误差的增大,BSM评估的生物学参考点和管理指标的绝对百分比偏差有增大趋势;与ASM相比,BSM能够更好地处理渔业数据中存在的随机误差,除了MSY以外,BSM评估的生物学参考点和管理指标绝对百分比偏差均要比ASM的评估结果低,尤其是B_(MSY)和F_(MSY)。因此,在使用存在较大随机误差的渔业数据进行资源评估时,BSM具有一定的优势。 相似文献
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The implications of temperature on bioenergetics for barramundi (Lates calcarifer) were defined in an improved factorial model that encompassed revised parameters accounting for effects over the temperature range of 16–39 °C and size range of 10–3000 g. A revised growth function describing weight gain by barramundi as a function of fish weight and temperature was derived from farm and laboratory data and included a term for a shift in optimal temperature with fish size: Gain (g fish?1 day?1) = (K + xT + yT 2 + zT3) * (weight)ax+b. Maintenance energy and protein demand functions were also derived on a similar form, and all three functions combined to form the basis of a factorial model for energy and protein demand. Using this model, optimal iterative feed specifications were defined for a range of fish sizes at temperatures of 25, 30 and 35 °C. A feed demand model was also developed based on the demand for digestible energy (DE) at each of these temperatures. The model shows that at high temperatures (35 °C), there is an increase in digestible protein (DP) to DE demand, and that with increasing size, there is a decrease in the DP to DE demand. 相似文献
24.
Catherine Taverny Isabelle Ortusi Charles Roqueplo Mario Lepage Patrick Lambert 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2012,21(1):87-99
Abstract – Habitat requirements of lamprey ammocoetes (Petromyzon marinus and Lampetra genus) were investigated, for the first time, from shallow to deep waters, at different spatial scales across the Gironde‐Dordogne continuum, thanks to a water suction dredge. Fish‐habitat relationships were assessed through two complementary statistical analyses: habitat‐use curves and habitat suitability models using the Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) technique. Analyses were performed on a small‐size data set that was characterised by the low prevalence of lamprey. The sea lamprey larvae occurred in deeper areas than their Lampetra genus counterparts. ‘Pools’ of 2 m’ depth and more were optimal habitats for the former species. Among the environmental variables retained to model lamprey occurrences, the mesohabitat (a categorical variable) was demonstrated to be highly influential, in terms of fine grain‐size substratum and vegetation cover. These preliminary results suggest that monitoring using the water suction dredge method may contribute to sea lamprey conservation. 相似文献
25.
T. R. Chandrasekhar 《林业研究》2012,23(3):365-375
No attempt has been made to date to model growth in girth of rubber tree (Hevea brasiliansis). We evaluated the few widely used growth functions to identify the most parsimonious and biologically reasonable model for describing the girth growth of young rubber trees based on an incomplete set of young age measurements. Monthly data for girth of immature trees (age 2 to 12 years) from two locations were subjected to modelling. Reparameterized, unconstrained and constrained growth functions of Richards (RM), Gompertz (GM) and the monomolecular model (MM) were fitted to data. Duration of growth was the constraint introduced. In the first stage, we attempted a population average (PA) model to capture the trend in growth. The best PA model wasfitted as a subject specific (SS) model. We used appropriate error variance-covariance structure to account for correlation due to repeated measurements over time. Unconstrained functions underestimated the asymptotic maximum that did not reflect the carrying capacity of the locations. Underestimations were attributed to the partial set of measurements made during the early growth phase of the trees. MM proved superior to RM and GM. In the random coefficient models, both Gf and G0 appeared to be influenced by tree level effects. Inclusion of diagonal definite positive matrix removed the correlation between random effects.The results were similar at both locations. In the overall assessment MM appeared as the candidate model for studying the girth-age relationships in Hevea trees. Based on the fitted model we conclude that, in Hevea trees, growth rate is maintained at maximum value at t0, then decreases until the final state at dG/dt ≥ 0, resulting in yield curve with no period of accelerating growth. One physiological explanation is that photosynthetic activity in Hevea trees decreases as girth increases and constructive metabolism is larger than destructive metabolism. 相似文献
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27.
Repeated sequences of digitised and geo-referenced historical aerial photography provide a powerful means of understanding
landscape change. We use this method to demonstrate a landscape wide expansion of closed forest (42% increase in total coverage)
in the Australian monsoon tropics over the past five decades. Retrospective habitat suitability models (HSI) of closed forest
derived using four landscape measures (drainage distance, slope angle, aspect and elevation) for imagery taken in 1947 correctly
forecast the subsequent spatial distribution of the expansion, with topographic fire protection primarily determining the
closed-forest distribution. The dynamics of the closed forest-savanna boundary were predicted accurately by generalised linear
models, with closed-forest expansion in fire-protected sites along forest edges and regression in the more fire-prone areas.
Two factors may plausibly explain the expansion of closed forests. First, eco-ethnographic records stress the skilful use
of fire by Aboriginal people in protecting isolated and locally resource-rich closed-forest patches. Second, the recent global
increase in atmospheric CO2 may be changing the competitive balance between savanna and forest by enabling C3 trees to grow fast enough to escape the fire trap presented by flammable C4 grasses. 相似文献
28.
Comparison of the Sensitivity of Landscape-fire-succession Models to Variation in Terrain, Fuel Pattern, Climate and Weather 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Geoffrey J. Cary Robert E. Keane Robert H. Gardner Sandra Lavorel Mike D. Flannigan Ian D. Davies Chao Li James M. Lenihan T. Scott Rupp Florent Mouillot 《Landscape Ecology》2006,21(1):121-137
The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of modelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of
independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely
terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer & wetter,
and warmer & drier) and weather (year-to-year variability) was determined for four existing landscape-fire-succession models
(EMBYR, FIRESCAPE, LANDSUM and SEM-LAND) and a new model implemented in the LAMOS modelling shell (LAMOS(DS)). Sensitivity
was measured as the variance in area burned explained by each of the four factors, and all of the interactions amongst them,
in a standard generalised linear modelling analysis. Modelled area burned was most sensitive to climate and variation in weather,
with four models sensitive to each of these factors and three models sensitive to their interaction. Models generally exhibited
a trend of increasing area burned from observed, through warmer and wetter, to warmer and drier climates with a 23-fold increase
in area burned, on average, from the observed to the warmer, drier climate. Area burned was sensitive to terrain for FIRESCAPE
and fuel pattern for EMBYR. These results demonstrate that the models are generally more sensitive to variation in climate
and weather as compared with terrain complexity and fuel pattern, although the sensitivity to these latter factors in a small
number of models demonstrates the importance of representing key processes. The models that represented fire ignition and
spread in a relatively complex fashion were more sensitive to changes in all four factors because they explicitly simulate
the processes that link these factors to area burned.
The US Government's and the Canadian Government's right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license is acknowledged 相似文献
29.
Emily Fobert Grzegorz Zięba Lorenzo Vilizzi Michael J. Godard Michael G. Fox Saulius Stakėnas Gordon H. Copp 《Ecology of Freshwater Fish》2013,22(1):106-116
Predictions of future climate change include shifts in patterns of precipitation, evapotranspiration and water run‐off, resulting in increased periods of drought as well as variability and intensity of rainfall events. In the United Kingdom, the non‐native North American sunfish, pumpkinseed Lepomis gibbosus (L.), is expected to benefit from these changes. We examine how hydrological variability induced by predicted changes in climate will affect the dispersal and spread of pumpkinseed in England by: (i) determining the relationship between discharge regime and pumpkinseed propagule pressure; (ii) examining a newly‐established pumpkinseed population following a flood event in 2007; and (iii) comparing the growth and life‐history traits of this new population with fish collected from the source population to demonstrate how the pumpkinseed's life‐history plasticity contributes to its success as a coloniser. Using Bayesian modelling, we determined that the number of pumpkinseed escapees is likely to increase with increasing discharge. The newly‐established pumpkinseed population showed fast juvenile growth, early age at maturity and small size at maturity. These traits differed significantly from the source population, specifically total length (TL) means at ages 1 and 2 were significantly greater in the new population, whereas TL at age 4 was significantly greater in the source population, and a significantly higher proportion of mature females were found at smaller size classes in the newly established pumpkinseed population. This study demonstrates the potential link between hydrological variability (current and future) and the dispersal of non‐native pumpkinseed, leading to the establishment of new populations. 相似文献
30.
MICHAEL BAUMANN 《Fisheries Oceanography》1998,7(1):63-65
In this paper I discuss some of the shortcomings of today's marine science in response to a recently published paper by Ann Gargett (1997). Three problem areas have been identified in the field linking climate forcing and fish production: First, the yet-to-be established observational proof for a relationship between the two; Second, the strongly neglected biology of organisms at evolutionary and ecological time scales; and thrird, the disregard for spatial and temporal scales in the discussion of mechanisms and supporting data. 相似文献