湖南省节水灌溉分区与规划

将模糊聚类方法用于湖南省节水灌溉分区，建立了湖南省节水灌溉区划模型，将系统动力学的动态仿真原理用于节水灌溉发展规划，建立了节水灌溉发展规划的动态仿真模型。据此，提出了湖南省节水灌溉区划，并对各分区及全省“九五”期间节水浇灌发展作了详细规划。     

Finding niches for whole-farm design models – contradictio in terminis?

Whole-farm design models quantitatively analyze the effects of a variety of potential changes at the farm system level. Science-driven technical information is confronted with value-driven objectives of farmers or other social groupings under explicit assumptions with respect to exogenous variables that are important drivers of agricultural systems (e.g., market conditions). Hence, farm design is an outcome of objective specification and the potential of a system. In recent publications, whole-farm design modelling has been proposed to enhance (farm) innovation processes. A number of operational modelling tools now offers the opportunity to assess the true potential of whole-farm design modelling to enhance innovation. In this paper, we demonstrate that it is not trivial to find niches for the application of goal-based farm models. Model outcomes appeared not to match questions of farm managers monitoring and learning from their own and other farmers’ practices. However, our research indicates that whole-farm design modelling possesses the capabilities to make a valuable contribution to reframing. Reframing is the phenomenon that people feel an urge to discuss and reconsider current objectives and perspectives on a problem. Reframing might take place in a situation (i) of mutually felt dependency between stakeholders, (ii) in which there is sufficient pressure and urgency for stakeholders to explore new problem definitions and make progress. Furthermore, our research suggests that the way the researcher enters a likely niche to introduce a model and/or his or her position in this niche may have significant implications for the potential of models to enhance an innovation process. Therefore, we hypothesize that the chances of capitalizing on modelling expertise are likely to be higher when researchers with such expertise are a logical and more or less permanent component of ongoing trajectories than when these researchers come from outside to purposefully search for a niche.     

The effect of salinity on corn yield using the CERES-maize model

In most cases, when calculating soil water availability, only thewater content is considered. The effect of salinity on the wiltingpoint is neglected. The objective of this work is to use asimulation model (CERES-maize) in order to predict cornyields as a function of water salinity under severalenvironmental, agrotechnical, and plant characteristics. A modelis presented in which the wilting point is a function of the soilsalt content. At high salinity, the water content at wilting pointis higher than at low salinity, resulting in an insufficient amountof available water and, therefore, a reduced yield. The modelwas used to simulate several theoretical and experimentalsituations for forage corn and grain corn. Simulation resultsshowed that nitrogen fertilization increases the salinity thresholdvalue and the yield sensitivity (rate of yield reduction per unitof salinity). The also showed that forage corn is more sensitiveto salinity than grain corn. If the soil is not leached, a heaviersoil texture has a higher salinity threshold value. On the otherhand, if the soil is leached, the soil texture has no influence onthe salinity threshold value and the yield is less sensitive tosalinity in sandy soils. The determination coefficient (r²= 0.75) indicated that the results of the simulations were in goodagreement with the field data.     

An integrated modelling toolbox for water resources assessment and management in highland catchments: Model description

Water and land resource competition and environmental degradation pose difficult questions for resource managers. In particular, the ensuing trade-offs between economic, environmental, and social factors and their spatiotemporal variability must be considered when implementing management policies. This paper describes an integrated modelling toolbox that has been developed for highland catchments – specifically the Mae Chaem catchment in Northern Thailand. This toolbox contains models of crop growth, erosion and rainfall-runoff, as well as household decision and socioeconomic impact models. The approach described advances and complements previous approaches by: considering more complex interactions between land-use decisions and the hydrological cycle; modelling household decisions based on uncertain expectations; and assessing impacts of changes not only on flows and household income, but also on subsistence production and erosion. An example of the types of trade-offs and scenarios that can be assessed using the integrated modelling toolbox is also presented. This demonstrates that for the scenarios presented, the magnitude and direction of impacts simulated by the model is not dependent on climate. Further testing of the model is demonstrated in a companion paper. Overall, the plausibility of the model is shown.     

Using drainage systems for supplementary irrigation

The use of drainage systems for supplementary irrigation is widespread in The Netherlands. One of the operating policies is to raise the surface water level during the growing season in order to reduce drainage (water conservation) or to create subsurface irrigation. This type of operation is based on practical experience, which can be far from optimal.To obtain better founded operational water management rules a total soil water/surface water model was built. In a case study the effects of using the drainage system in a dual-purpose manner on the arable crop production were simulated with the model. Also, the operational rules for managing this type of dual-purpose drainage systems were derived.The average annual simulated increase in crop transpiration due to water conservation and water supply for subsurface irrigation are 6.0 and 5.4 mm.y^–1, respectively. This is equivalent with 520 × 10³ and 460 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for the pilot region (2 Dfl 1 US $). The corresponding investments and operational costs are 600 × 10³ Dfl and 9 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for water conservation and 3200 × 10³ Dfl and 128 × 10³ Dfl.y^–1 for subsurface irrigation. Hence, water conservation is economically very profitable, whereas subsurface irrigation is less attractive.Comparing the management according to the model with current practice in a water-board during 1983 and 1986 learned that benefits can increase with some 50 and 500 Dfl per ha per year, respectively.     

Potential chemical time bombs in the schelde estuary

The Schelde estuary is heavily polluted with many different (micro)pollutants. This results in high concentrations in the abiotic and biotic compartments of the Schelde estuary and in various effects. the present day suboxic and anoxic conditions in the upper estuary are probably responsible for the high distribution coefficients for some trace metals in the lower Schelde estuary (Western Schelde). a future reduction in discharges with a high biological oxygen demand will therefore not only result in higher oxygen concentrations, but probably also in lower distribution coefficients for trace metals in the Western Schelde. Simulations show that lower trace metal distribution coefficients will probably result in higher concentrations of dissolved (bioavailable) trace metals, even with substantially reduced discharge rates, due to the desorption of trace metals from resuspended bottom sediments.     

Simulation modelling of potato virus Y spread in relation to initial inoculum and vector activity

Potato virus Y(PVY) is a non-persistent virus that is transmitted by many aphid species and causes significant damage to potato production. We constructed a spatially-explicit model simulating PVY spread in a potato field and used it to investigate possible effects of transmission efficiency, initial inoculum levels, vector behavior, vector abundance, and timing of peak vector activity on PVY incidence at the end of a simulated growing season. Lower PVY incidence in planted seed resulted in lower virus infection at the end of the season. However, when populations of efficient PVY vectors were high, significant PVY spread occurred even when initial virus inoculum was low. Non-colonizing aphids were more important for PVY spread compared to colonizing aphids, particularly at high densities. An early-season peak in the numbers of noncolonizing aphids resulted in the highest number of infected plants in the end of the season, while mid-and late-season peaks caused relatively little virus spread. Our results highlight the importance of integrating different techniques to prevent the number of PVY-infected plants from exceeding economically acceptable levels instead of trying to control aphids within potato fields. Such management plans should be implemented very early in a growing season.     

爬壁机器人翻越焊缝过程动力学建模研究

用于远洋渔船外板除锈的爬壁机器人在进行壁面作业时需要翻越焊缝,采用充气轮的爬壁机器人在翻越焊缝后会出现轮胎压缩量的减小,导致磁铁气隙增大、磁铁吸附力减小,从而削弱爬壁机器人的负载能力,降低了壁面行走可靠性,为此对爬壁机器人翻越焊缝的动力学过程进行研究。首先,将驱动轮轮胎简化为弹簧阻尼器,建立爬壁机器人翻越焊缝过程的动力学模型,并将驱动轮的翻越焊缝过程划分为不同的阶段;其次,利用数值方法求解该动力学模型,分析不同胎压下驱动轮翻越焊缝过程中爬壁机器人的运动状态;最后,进行了爬壁机器人翻越焊缝过程试验,结果表明,机器人翻越焊缝过程的试验结果与数值仿真结果基本一致,验证了本文所建动力学模型的正确性与合理性。     

Geomorphic estimates of the stability of a uranium mill tailings containment cover: Nabarlek,Northern Territory,Australia

The geomorphic stability of the cover (cap) over the pit of Nabarlek Uranium Mine in Arnhem Land, Northern Australia, is important because radon gas and other long-lived radio-nuclides arising from mill tailings must be contained for long periods. The primary agents of denudation in the region's seasonally wet tropical environment of low relief are rainwash, overland flow, rilling and gullying. Other agents of erosion are of less concern, although biogenic agents of erosion (e.g. termites and windthrow) may enhance fluvial activity. A combination of modelling, using the Universal Soil Loss Equation, and analogue estimates of denudation and thresholds of rilling and gullying from areas with similar geology, topography and climate are used to estimate the stability of the Nabarlek cover. Denudation rates are conservatively estimated at less than 100mm ky⁻¹. It is suggested that with some minor design modifications the cover will retain its integrity for several thousand years.     

消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素

为探索消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的影响因素和机制路径,本研究基于PPM理论,构建结构方程模型分析了消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为及其影响因素,并运用多群组分析不同消费者行为影响因素的差异性。结果表明：1）价格、信息、服务不满意构成正向影响消费者生鲜水果线上购买迁徙行为的推力因素;感知有用性、搜索、消费体验感构成正向影响迁徙行为的拉力因素;程序转移成本构成负向影响迁徙行为的锚定因素。2）锚定因素负向调节推力因素对迁徙行为的作用效果。3）性别、年龄、学历水平三个人口统计特征在不同假设路径中的影响较为显著。其中女性、30岁及以下、学历水平大专以上的群体更愿意在线上渠道购买生鲜水果。结论丰富了生鲜水果领域消费者迁徙行为的研究成果,并为生鲜电商可持续发展提供了启示。