A dynamic, optimal disease control model for foot-and-mouth disease: I. Model description

A dynamic optimization model was developed and used to evaluate alternative foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) control strategies. The model chose daily control strategies of depopulation and vaccination that minimized total regional cost for the entire epidemic duration, given disease dynamics and resource constraints. The disease dynamics and the impacts of control strategies on these dynamics were characterized in a set of difference equations; effects of movement restrictions on the disease dynamics were also considered. The model was applied to a three-county region in the Central Valley of California; the epidemic relationships were parameterized and validated using the information obtained from an FMD simulation model developed for the same region. The optimization model enables more efficient searches for desirable control strategies by considering all strategies simultaneously, providing the simulation model with optimization results to direct it in generating detailed predictions of potential FMD outbreaks.     

黑龙江省水稻单产增长潜力预测方法研究

水稻是黑龙江省的主要粮食作物。加入WTO后,水稻生产、贸易、进出口等方面都面临新的形势,同时水稻产量的稳定和增长对于国家粮食安全、人民生活水平提高以及农民奔小康都有着重要意义。因此,探讨了应用Peal曲线函数模型对黑龙江省水稻单产进行预测的方法。     

A Study on the FMS Planning and Scheduling System

After researching the function requirements of the planning and scheduling in manufacturing cells, the paper advanced a control structure with three phases, i. e. planning , scheduling and dispatching. The paper represented in detail the main purposes, requirements and scheduling actions in each phase. It suits to general machining FMSs.     

Estimation of Cleaner Production Potential

The term Cleaner Production(CP)and Estimation of Cleaner Production Potential are introduced, meanwhile their importance are pointed out. Three kinds of cleaner technologies are put forward-Best Available Technology(BAT), Best Economic Attractive Technology(BEAT), and usually used new technology, combined with some CP casesat home and abroad. several cleaner technologies are compared, and the results show that the implementation of CP can greatly reduce consumption of resource and energy and pollution emission, There are obvious environmental, economic and social benefits. The great potential of CP in industrial pollution control are estimated and demonstrated ultimately.     

区域经济系统的分形特征及模型研究

通过对区域经济系统模型的研究,确定了经济系统的分形特征,并通过实例建立投入与产出的数学模型,验证了其分形特征,利用分维确定了各投入与产出量的变化趋势,揭示了区域经济系统的复杂变化,为了解和指导区域经济发展提供了新的方法和依据。     

粮食生产的机械化问题

粮食牛产机械化是生产力发展的一个重要方而，也是一种必然趋势。机械化生产手段可以提高粮食产量，确保粮食生产持续发展，提高粮食生产效率和经济效益。粮食生产机械化不仅是农业技术变迁的一种自然发展过程，而且与制度变迁密切相关、互相促进。在粮食生产机械化中，有很多现实问题需要解决。     

Effects of silvopastoral areas on milk production at dual-purpose cattle farms at the semi-humid old agricultural frontier in central Nicaragua

In extensive cattle production systems, the composition of grazing areas may significantly influence productivity. In dual-purpose cattle production systems in the lowland tropics, pasture lands with trees, so-called silvopastoral areas, are considered as being important, particularly to facilitate the management of crossbred European native cattle. The aim of the study was to quantify the effects of silvopastoral areas on production at dual-purpose cattle farms in the semi-humid lowlands of central Nicaragua. The relationships between seasonal milk production and herd data, and the proportions of land use types were examined for 74 farms by stepwise regression analysis.     

Resource allocation tradeoffs in Manila’s peri-urban vegetable production systems: An application of multiple objective programming

This paper designed and developed a multi-objective programming (MOP) model to illustrate the dynamic relationship among technologies, productive activities, constraints and farmers’ objectives in the peri-urban vegetable production system and use the model as an economic tool in analysing probable consequences of a given action or innovation on the farm. The best compromise solution was generated using four analytical steps, as follows: single-objective optimization (to determine the ideal and anti-ideal values of the objective functions); constrained optimization (to generate the set of Pareto non-dominated solutions); cluster analysis (to trim down efficient set into smaller homogeneous groups); and compromise programming (to determine where the best compromise solution lies).     

Monitoring forage production for farmers’ decision making

Objective management of grazing livestock production systems needs monitoring of forage production at the managerial unit level. Our objectives were to develop a system that routinely estimates forage above-ground net primary production (ANPP) at the spatial and temporal resolution required by farmers in the Pampas of Argentina, and to facilitate adoption of the system by end users as a managerial support tool. Our approach was based on the radiation use efficiency (RUE) logic, which proposes that ANPP is determined by the amount of photosynthetically active radiation absorbed by the canopy (APAR), and the efficiency with which that energy is transformed in above-ground dry matter (radiation use efficiency, RUE). APAR is the product of incoming photosynthetically active radiation (PAR) and the fraction absorbed by the canopy (fPAR). We estimated fPAR as a non-linear function of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). RUE was empirically estimated for the two principal forage resources of the region, yielding the following relations: ANPP = 0.6 × APAR + 12, (R² = 0.86; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the upland sown pastures, and ANPP = 0.27 × APAR + 26, (R² = 0.74; p < 0.001; n = 18) for the lowland naturalized pastures, with ANPP in g/m²/60 days and APAR in MJ/m²/60 days. The models were able to predict independent ANPP values with acceptable accuracy. Computational procedures were automated and run in a Relational Data Base Manager System that stored and managed all the information. The system is currently monitoring 212,794 ha in 83 farms and provides monthly ANPP values for the previous month and a history of the last 6 years. The data so generated show ANPP differences between the two major forage resources, considerable variability of a given month’s ANPP among years and paddocks, and contrasting among-farm differences in the efficiency of conversion of ANPP and forage supplements into beef production. The system was well accepted by end users who utilize it mainly for making near real time decisions according to last month ANPP, and explaining results of previous production cycles by incorporating ANPP as an explicative variable. However, there were differences among farmers in the degree of utilization, apparently related to the advisor’s attitude toward this new technology. Our results indicate that (1) forage production of large extensions can be monthly monitored at the paddock level by a small laboratory with capabilities in geographic information systems, and (2) advisors and farmers apply this information to their managerial decisions.     

荒漠化预警模型及其应用研究

分析了土地生产潜力的影响因子及其计算方法，从机理上分析各因子给未来荒漠化的发展趋势可能造成的影响，并从土地生产潜力退化基本原理出发，建立了荒漠化顸警模型。以疏勒河流域为背景，在GIS平台支持下，应用预警模型分析了该流域昌马灌区农业综合开发后的荒漠化趋势，对灌区荒漠化的发展趋势和潜在危险性进行了分析判断。