ANN在森林资源预测中的应用研究

人工神经网络(ANN)方法是基于实例的方法,不需要考虑数学模型的内部结构,不需要假设前提条件,不需要人为地确定因子权重,作为一个黑箱综合地映射研究对象的整体性。应用人工神经网络多步预测方法对甘肃连城林场吐鲁沟营林区有林地面积进行预测,网络模型的最大相对误差为0 080 8％,最小相对误差达到0 0089％,平均为0.038 6％,表明预测值与实际值吻合程度很好,因此模型的精度较高,并且建模简单经预测,林场2000-2004年有林地面积稍有下降趋势,分别为2 873.2 hm2,2 618 7 hm2,2 484.5 hm2,2 346 hm2,2 171 6hm2。     

Pocono mesic till barrens in retreat: topography,fire and forest contagion effects

The Pocono mesic till barrens (PMTB) are a unique assemblage of fire-maintained shrub communities that support numerous rare species. Historically these barrens covered a large area in the vicinity of Long Pond, Pennsylvania, USA. However, due largely to regional fire suppression instituted in the early 1960s, over 70% of the area covered by barrens succeeded to fire-intolerant forest that does not support the rare species. We investigated the influence of forest proximity on barrens succession across three geomorphic types during periods of high fire frequency and fire suppression, testing the hypothesis that forest processes such as seed rain, shading, and detrital enrichment of soils enhances barrens succession through a contagion effect. Evidence of a forest contagion effect should be shown by increased rates of barrens succession with increasing proximity to the nearest forest edge. In order to detect a forest contagion effect, barrens persistence and barrens succession were modeled in proximity zones of 0-50 m, 50-100 m, 100-200 m, and greater than 200 m from the nearest forest edge. We used existing GIS data layers for fire, geomorphology, and vegetation distribution in 1938, 1963, and 1992. The layers were modified and overlain using ArcView software to determine persistence and succession rates for each unique combination of layers in each proximity zone from 1938 to 1963 (pre-fire suppression) and 1963 to 1992 (post-fire suppression). ANCOVA results indicate that proximity to the nearest forest edge significantly affected barrens persistence rates in both time periods, but succession rates were significantly affected in 1938 to 1963 only. Twenty-eight percent of the 1938 barrens succeeded to forest by 1963; 56% of the 1963 barrens became forest by 1992. Results support previous findings that barrens persistence is enhanced by increased fire frequency, and that barrens persist longer where they overlie flat glacial till than on other geomorphology types.     

天山北麓的水资源利用与绿洲稳定性-以玛纳斯河流域为例

玛纳斯河是天山北麓最大的河流流域 ,玛纳斯流域拥有天山北麓最大的绿洲 ,以玛纳斯河流域绿洲为研究对象 ,来分析天山北麓水资源的利用对流域绿洲稳定性的影响。天山北麓自然环境体现为山地 -绿洲 -荒漠复合生态系统。绿洲是干旱区所特有的一类景观 ,它是一个人工与自然的复合生态系统 ,它作为发育在干旱气候大背景下的隐域性的自然景观 ,水分条件是决定其存在和发展的基础。天山北麓地区人类活动历史悠久 ,对水资源利用的影响较大 ,也是引起天山北麓绿洲演变、分布变化及其稳定性的重要因子。处于不同地貌位置的绿洲 ,由于其水资源特点不同 ,绿洲的稳定性以及绿洲演变规律也有所区别。总的来说 ,绿洲的稳定性由其内部与外部生态系统的结构、功能及生态过程决定 ,直接关系到区域社会经济的持续发展 ,水资源状况及利用是关系到天山北麓绿洲稳定性的关键性因素。合理利用水资源 ,可保持绿洲面积的稳定性 ,绿洲分布的稳定性 ,以及绿洲生态系统结构、功能的稳定性 ;水资源利用不当会导致绿洲内部土地发生大面积次生盐渍化 ,绿洲外围则由于生态用水不足加之人为破坏 ,使作为绿洲屏障的过渡带转变成生态断裂带 ,威胁绿洲的稳定性。利用工程技术方法和工程管理方法解决好灌区水利工程存在的问题 ;实施高新技术?     

金昌水资源特点及供需平衡研究

本文通过建立金昌市人口与牲畜增长规律 ,第二、三产业的GDP增长率规律数学模型 ,计算出在长时间序列中的用水量持续增长状况及根据金昌市农业节水技术和城市生态规划 ,得到农业、生态用水量规划数据。根据水量平衡原理 ,分析了金昌市未来水量供需平衡问题 ,对指导金昌水资源利用 ,具有一定的现实意义。     

Ascorbic acid level of Belgian apple genetic resources

With the help of the public, a wide collection of old apple cultivars (cvs) was established progressively at our Department from 1975 onwards. Currently, more than 1400 apple accessions are being maintained and three quarters of them are subjected to field evaluation for disease resistance and agronomic characters. This paper presents results of the ascorbic acid (Vitamin C) contents of old cvs combining interesting disease resistance and agronomic features in order to promote them as cvs adapted to production systems which are more environmentally friendly or to be used as parents in breeding programmes. First, a methodological study shows the importance of the variability of ascorbic acid content depending on fruit position in the trees, fruit size, fruit skin colour and maturity stage. Statistical analyses show that the sample size of six fruits per cv is sufficient to detect a difference of 20% between cvs. Old apple cvs such as Grenadier^RGF, Transparente de Croncels, Bramley’s Seedling, Reinette des Capucins, Reinette Libotte and Reinette de Waleffe contain three and seven times more ascorbic acid than the commercial cvs Gala and Elstar, respectively. The paper highlights the need to evaluate the rich potential in our genetic resources.     

西北内陆河流域水资源利用的生态经济研究

水资源是西北内陆河流域生态环境建设和经济社会发展的控制因素,是进行各类基础设施建设的前提条件.利用生态经济学中的生态经济协调发展理论和可持续发展的思想,从生态、社会和经济3个方面对水资源开发利用的可持续性进行综合评价,找到水资源生态系统和社会经济系统的平衡点,达到生态和经济平衡,实现水资源的可持续利用.     

内蒙古农牧交错带饲草资源饲用价值评价

对地处内蒙古农牧交错带的林西县饲草资源进行了营养成份分析及饲用价值评价,结果表明:苜蓿粗蛋白质含量高于灌木类及青贮玉米,其营养动态变化规律是随生育期的变化粗蛋白质含量呈下降趋势,粗纤维含量呈上升趋势,各种成份在茎叶中的含量也随生育期变化而变化;灌木类饲用植物粗蛋白质含量15.69%～18.48%,青贮玉米粗蛋白质含量7.64%～11.15%。     

The value of vegetation cover for ecosystem services in the suburban context

Latin-American cities can be characterized by dynamic processes of urbanization that encroach upon the natural and semi-natural surrounding landscapes. Our study presents the effects of landscape development, transformed from semi-natural conditions into a mostly disperse suburban settlement. We explore the impact that this transformation has had on this context by three ecosystem services that regulate rainwater runoff, enhance microclimate conditions and help to improve air quality by monitoring vegetation cover. We have designed a spatio-temporal hierarchical analysis which employs remote sensing techniques to capture the structural changes of this landscape over long, medium and short term scales on two spatial levels. This methodological approach was tested in the Metropolitan Area of Santiago (MAS) as case study area. Despite of the increase in impervious surfaces due to urban processes, there has also been an increase in vegetation cover, which has led to an improvement in the provision of the above-mentioned ecosystem services. Hence, if diverse urbanization processes continue and they are coupled with an increase in vegetation cover, the provision of ecosystem services could also expand. This phenomenon can be observed in some areas, where public and private green spaces are created and maintained. Our data analyses give evidence that certain types of suburban areas which increase the share of vegetation cover can provide daily ecological benefits for urban neighborhoods, and beyond, for adjacent areas. Moreover, suburban development can successfully provide ecological benefits to citizens. Such processes can only be ecologically sustainable if the composition of vegetation is well-adapted to the regional climatic conditions.     

广州石门国家森林公园野生观赏植物资源调查

通过野外调查和查阅文献资料,得出石门国家森林公园共有野生观赏植物122科267属377种,其中蕨类植物19科23属28种,裸子植物4科5属7种,被子植物99科239属342种。分析了石门国家森林公园野生观赏植物资源的基本特征和用途,并探讨其保护和开发利用。     

广州市绿道体育资源开发与利用*

运用了文献资料法、实地考察法、专家访谈法、问卷调查法、数理统计法等研究方法，根据我市不同绿道建设的特点对其进行分层和归类，选取了具有代表性的区域绿道体育资源作为研究对象。现有的体育设施有自行车驿站、健身路径、简易球场等，开展的体育运动项目有远足、越野赛、自行车等。拟通过开发场地、交通、文化、参与人群等来整合绿道体育资源，提升绿道价值。