Analysing commercial catch and effort data from a Penaeid trawl fishery: A comparison of linear models, mixed models, and generalised estimating equations approaches

Statistical methods are often used to analyse commercial catch and effort data to provide standardised fishing effort and/or a relative index of fish abundance for input into stock assessment models. Achieving reliable results has proved difficult in Australia's Northern Prawn Fishery (NPF), due to a combination of such factors as the biological characteristics of the animals, some aspects of the fleet dynamics, and the changes in fishing technology. For this set of data, we compared four modelling approaches (linear models, mixed models, generalised estimating equations, and generalised linear models) with respect to the outcomes of the standardised fishing effort or the relative index of abundance. We also varied the number and form of vessel covariates in the models. Within a subset of data from this fishery, modelling correlation structures did not alter the conclusions from simpler statistical models. The random-effects models also yielded similar results. This is because the estimators are all consistent even if the correlation structure is mis-specified, and the data set is very large. However, the standard errors from different models differed, suggesting that different methods have different statistical efficiency. We suggest that there is value in modelling the variance function and the correlation structure, to make valid and efficient statistical inferences and gain insight into the data. We found that fishing power was separable from the indices of prawn abundance only when we offset the impact of vessel characteristics at assumed values from external sources. This may be due to the large degree of confounding within the data, and the extreme temporal changes in certain aspects of individual vessels, the fleet and the fleet dynamics.     

Plenty more fish in the sea?

Only in the last century did humans overwhelmingly accept that fisheries resources are finite. Consequently, ‘there are more fish still in the sea than ever came out of it’ served as a popular metaphor for unbounded expectations for half a millennium, expectations that also extended to use of the planet in general. By reconstructing historical fishing back 1200 years, we identify when this metaphor actually ceased to be true. For some of our most important stocks, it has not been true for centuries, although surprisingly, for fishes globally, it applied until the last century. We demonstrate, however, that there can still be ‘plenty more fish in the sea’ and that with effective management they provide a continuous flow of benefits for our future.     

Survival of smaller sport caught chinook, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), and coho, Oncorhynchus kisutch (Walbaum), salmon from Lake Michigan and its management implications

Abstract The survival of small-sized (<50.8 cm) chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha (Walbaum), and coho salmon, Oncorhynchus kitsutch (Walbaum), caught by sport fishing was determined to assess the potential for increasing the size limit for these fish. Fishermen were recently catching smaller salmon than in the 1970s, but salmon growth rates had not changed. To be an effective management option, the survival rate of hooked and returned fish must be high. The overall survival rates were high: 76% for chinook salmon and 70% for coho salmon. There was no significant difference in survival of the coho salmon with size of hook used ( P = 0.31). Any mortality among fish was generally acute; fish hooked deep in the mouth or gills generally bled and died shortly after capture. Fish hooked in the gills had a significantly greater mortality ( P = 0.0002). The overall high survival rate for these species was the result of a small proportion of fish being hooked in the gills or deep in the mouth. Since the survival rate of the salmon was high, the size limit could be increased to allow smaller fish to grow to sizes preferred by sport fishermen.     

南极磷虾中层拖网捕捞参数对CPUE变动的影响

根据中国在南极海洋生物资源养护委员会(CCAMLR)48.1亚区和48.2亚区内2010—2014年南极磷虾拖网渔船的捕捞数据,采用广义可加模型(generalized additive model, GAM)分析各拖网捕捞参数(因子)对南极磷虾汛期单位捕捞努力量渔获量(catch per unit effort, CPUE )的影响。结果表明:2010—2014年我国南极磷虾作业渔场主要位于南极半岛等岛屿的周边海域,CPUE 值月变化明显,2—5月为捕捞高峰期。 CPUE 最高值为2014年,最低值为2012年,年平均CPUE呈略上升趋势。从月变化来看,除6月外,标准化 CPUE 均大于名义 CPUE;且最大值出现在4月或5月,最小值均出现在10月。GAM分析表明各捕捞参数对 CPUE 的影响由大到小依次为:拖网速度、网口高度、网口水平扩张、拖曳水深、曳纲长度;各因子的偏差解释率分别为22.8%、14.5%、12.7%、6.0%、1.6%,所有因子对 CPUE 的总体偏差解释率为57.6%。研究认为,我国南极磷虾捕捞作业中最适拖网速度范围2.6~3.1 kn;最适网口高度范围22~30 m;最适网口水平扩张范围20~25 m;最适曳纲长度范围100~200 m;最适拖曳水深范围0~40 m。     

聚酮单丝材料的渔用适配性

聚酮(POK)材料是由一氧化碳、烯烃(乙烯、丙烯)共聚合成的一种工程塑料,有着良好的拉伸性能和优异的抗冲击性能,有望成为一种渔用新材料。为了探究聚酮单丝材料的渔用适配性,本文对POK单丝进行了热性能和动态力学性能测试,又测试分析了其蠕变性能、力学性能和耐磨性能。结果表明：POK单丝的结晶度为38.44%、熔融温度为200.8℃,且使用环境温度可达150℃;与相同直径的超高分子量聚乙烯(UHMWPE)单丝和聚酰胺(PA)单丝相比,同等温度下POK单丝的模量最大(118.04 MPa),且在低温下(0-20°C)具有更优异的力学模量;蠕变试验测得POK单丝的拉伸应变在9%左右,在绳网的长效应用上POK单丝优势明显高于UHMWPE单丝和PA单丝;在结节状态下,POK单丝的结节强力在干(3.96 daN)、湿(4.02 daN)状态下均高于同等直径的UHMWPE单丝和PA单丝;另外,POK单丝的耐磨性能表现优异,在相同摩擦条件下,干(湿)态下POK单丝的强力保持率达58.38%(60.90%),也高于同等直径的UHWMPE单丝和PA单丝。研究表明,与相同直径的UHMWPE单丝和PA单丝相比,POK单丝耐磨、耐高温、高模量、低蠕变、高结节强力,其综合性能和适配性好,这为渔用POK单丝绳索网具的开发及其产业化应用提供了理论和技术支撑。     

阿根廷专属经济区内鱿钓渔场时空分布年间差异比较

阿根廷滑柔鱼(Illex argentinus)是西南大西洋重要的经济性头足类,其中分布在阿根廷专属经济区的渔场是极为重要的作业海区,掌握其渔场时空分布有助于合理利用该资源。根据2008～2011年中国鱿钓船在阿根廷专属经济区内的生产统计资料,利用空间距离分析和聚类分析,对渔场时空分布及其年间差异进行了研究。结果表明,阿根廷专属经济区内2008年的产量明显高于其它三年,2008年渔场主要分布于46°S以南,与其它三年也有所差异。产量重心在各年的2月份差异最小,3月份显示出较大的差异。计算欧式距离表明,2008年和2010年产量重心空间距离最小,2010年和2011年空间距离最大。聚类分析表明,2008年与2010年归为一类,2009年和2011年为一类。对不同月份进行聚类分析发现,不同年份2月均在一类中,空间差异较小,其它月份并没有呈现出明显的规律性变化,同一年相邻月份渔场变化不明显。研究认为,阿根廷滑柔鱼年间渔场分布变化很大,今后应该结合各项生物学指标和海洋环境因子进行全面的分析。     

生计资本对退捕渔民家庭收入质量的影响研究——以湖南省退捕渔民为例

长江“十年禁捕”政策是贯彻“生态优先,绿色发展”理念的重要举措。渔民作为禁捕政策的最终执行者和最重要利益主体,退捕后的收入保障直接关系着禁捕政策的顺利推进。本文基于可持续生计理论,利用湖南省11个县区市渔民实地调研数据,运用OLS模型和中介效应模型,分析生计资本差异对家庭收入质量的影响及其作用机制,探讨影响效应在渔民间的异质性。结果表明,渔民生计资本原始积累方面,社会、人力、物质和金融资本处于较好水平,均值分别为1.57、1.54、1.51和1.50,自然资本水平相对较低,均值仅为1.06;退捕后渔户收入明显下降,年均收入由退捕前的10.31万元跌至6.43万元,而且渔户间收入差距加大,渔民家庭年均收入最高与最低分位区间的比值由退捕前的4上升至8。人力、物质、金融和社会资本均对收入质量影响显著,其中人力资本影响最大。人力、社会和物质资本存量增强渔民转产就业的积极性,金融资本虽然正向决定收入质量,但一定程度上会抑制渔民的再就业努力。另外,公共事务参与度、土地生产资料分别对收入充足性、结构性的促进作用最强;政府补贴支持对收入持续性和知识性的正向作用最大;信息资源获取便捷性对收入成本的负向作用最显著,而且生计资本对家庭收入质量的影响存在年龄异质性。由此,提出落实各项惠农政策、禁捕资金重点投放、加大乡村“能人”扶持和基于渔民年龄分类施策等建议。     

以双拖渔船为例分析浙江省海洋捕捞渔船捕捞区域差异

海洋捕捞渔船现为属地化管理,但其海上生产具有跨地区管辖水域作业特点.传统上,各地渔船因在近岸水域沿袭地方捕捞经验与传统捕捞习惯,均具显著的地方特性.但随着捕捞渔船的钢质化、大型化,海洋捕捞的作业空间不断扩展,了解与掌握当前海洋捕捞是否具有区域特征差异,对于渔业抽样统计调查研究和精准渔业管理有着重要的科学理论指导意义.本...     

关于发展增殖渔业的讨论

渔业资源增殖具有增加种群数量,恢复已衰败种群和重建渔业的作用,如何营造一个大型增殖系统,首先要克服阻碍系统运行的限制条件。本文就如何解决这个问题提出了自己的意见：决策部门启动一个增殖系统要进行可行性研究,如果不能解决限制条件时不能增殖,增殖效果与放流位置和放流时的天气状况有关,多数增殖渔业在社会条件允许下,都可进行脉冲式捕捞。     

Evaluation of the effect of stock enhancement in the coastal waters of Guangdong,China

A total of 14.573 million fish fry and 96.32 million shrimp larvae were released across 31 locations into the coastal waters off Guangdong, China, in 2010. The released fish and shrimp were sampled through a combination of market and fishing log‐book surveys. The combined fishery production reached 362 868 kg. The input–output ratio was 1:5.99 for released fish (over 3 years) and 1:11.01 for released shrimp (over 2 years). The average increase in income was 721 RMB per capita. Approximately 240 thousand fish (after 3 years) and 1.2 million shrimp (after 2 years) survived to sexual maturity and could contribute to the spawning stock. The stockings were approximately one‐seventh of the fish and one‐half of the shrimp stocking carrying capacities, respectively. Based on these results, the intensity of stocking could be increased. Stocking and recapture strategies should be adjusted to align with the optimal stocking carrying capacity determined from this study.