绥芬河大麻哈鱼的生长分析

为了解绥芬河大麻哈鱼( Oncorhynchus keta Walbaum)的年龄、生长以及初次性成熟叉长情况。通过对2015 2017年采捕到的绥芬河大麻哈鱼洄游群体241个样本的鳞片观察和基础生物学测定,将其分为1 +、2 +、3 +、4 +、5 +五个年龄组,采用Von Bertalanffy生长方程模拟了大麻哈鱼不同性成熟年龄以及雌、雄个体间的生长,通过最大似然法估计模型的参数。残差平方和分析( ARSS)显示,绥芬河大麻哈鱼雌、雄个体间以及不同性成熟年龄组( 2 +,3 +)间的生长差异显著。采用Logistic曲线方程拟合了绥芬河大麻哈鱼的性成熟概率曲线,结果显示大麻哈鱼雌性个体的50%初次性成熟叉长( L 50 )比雄性大,ARSS分析结果表明不同年份间雌、雄个体的性成熟概率差异极其显著。此外,调查结果显示绥芬河大麻哈鱼的平均叉长有减小的趋势,且出现低龄( 1 +龄)个体。     

Design and FPGA Implementation of animproved structure of digital matched filter

An improved structure of digital matched filter(DMF)is presented. Two same pseudorandom spread spectrum sequences with the length of N are used to spread the same baseband symbol at the transmitter, which is equal to spread the baseband symbol with a spread spectrum sequence with the length of 2N. At the receiver, only a spread spectrum sequence with the length of N is needed to de spread the data, and then cumulates the two correlation peaks and exports to the output. The detection probability(Pd)and the false alarm probability(Pf)are analyzed and simulated. The improved structure of DMF is implemented based on the recursive and folded principle. Experimental results show that, for the same spread gain, the improved structure has the same Pd and Pf as the basic DMF, while saves the hardware resources greatly compared with the recursive and folded structure.     

中国西北三省(区)风雪流发生的可能性

[目的]揭示新疆、内蒙古和甘肃西北3省(区)风雪流发生的可能性,为风雪灾害防治提供理论依据。[方法]利用1981—2010年3省(区)130个区站地面气象资料,划分风雪流发生可能性等级。[结果](1)研究区65.4%的地区有发生风雪流灾害的可能性,其中16.9%的地区发生风雪流可能性的等级较高;(2)研究区风雪流灾害最严重的月份为3和12月,少数地区受地形影响有所差异;(3)研究区30a间气象数据在一定范围内波动,风雪灾害发生可能性没有减弱趋势。[结论]西北3省(区)需重视风雪灾害防治,尤其是3和12月应重点防护;同时要加强生态修复工作,降低风雪灾害。     

基于灰色概率模型的耕地集约利用评价——以湖北省为例

采用层次分析法以及文献参考法建立了耕地集约利用评价指标体系,在此基础上结合模糊集理论提出了耕地集约利用评价的灰色概率模型,并依据该模型对湖北省及其所属的17个市（州）的土地集约利用程度进行了评价。结果表明:2011年,湖北省耕地处于基本集约利用向比较集约利用过渡状态;湖北省17个市（州）中高集约利用的有2个,比较集约的有6个,基本集约的有7个,不集约的2个。通过区域差异分析,验证了该模型应用于耕地集约利用评价切实可行,可以为耕地集约利用提供理论支持。     

冶炼厂周边土壤重金属污染范围的界定与不确定性分析

在浙江省富阳市某冶炼厂周边以网格法采集了147个表层土壤样品,测定了铜、锌、铅和镉总含量。运用组合预测法(普通块状克里格法和三角网格插值法)预测了研究区各种重金属含量的空间分布,又运用指示克里格法预测了研究区各种重金属的污染概率;再分别依据土壤污染临界值(土壤环境质量标准)和污染概率的临界值(50%)来界定各种重金属的污染范围。本研究将基于两种方法的界定结果相对比来综合界定污染范围,并将污染土壤重金属污染状况分为污染、未污染和不确定。综合界定结果表明,研究区分别有71.7%、80.0%、3.0%、83.1%的区域土壤被重金属Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd所污染,不能被确定是否被重金属Cu、Zn、Pb、Cd所污染的区域分别占20.8%、10.5%、12.5%和10.9%。     

Identification of risk factors for the prevalence and persistence of Salmonella in Belgian broiler chicken flocks

According to the European Food Safety Authority, salmonellosis is still one of the main causes of infectious foodborne gastroenteritis in humans. Broilers are an important source of salmonellosis after eggs and pork. Between 1987 and 1999 the trend of human salmonellosis incidence in Belgium increased constantly. However, from 2000 until 2005 a decrease in human cases was observed, probably following the sanitary measures implemented in the poultry breeder and laying sector. In order to decrease human infections it is essential to tackle the problem at the farm level to minimize cross-contamination from farm to fork. This paper seeks to answer two questions: (i) given the Salmonella status of the farm at a certain occasion (equal to the sampling time of the flock), what are the risk factors that the farm will be Salmonella positive at a following occasion? And (ii) what are the risk factors for a farm to be persistently positive for two consecutive flocks? We used surveillance data on 6824 broiler flocks studied for Salmonella infectivity from 2005 to 2006 in Belgium. The farms were tested regularly (3 weeks before slaughter of each broiler flock) for the presence of Salmonella based on multiple faecal samples per flock on a farm yielding clustered data. Generalized estimating equations, alternating logistic regression models, and random-intercept logistic regression models were employed to analyse these correlated binary data. Our results indicated that there are many factors that influence Salmonella risk in broiler flocks, and that they interact. Accounting for interactions between risk factors leads to an improved determination of those risk factors that increase infection with Salmonella. For the conditional analysis, the risk factors found to increase the risk of Salmonella infection on a farm at a current occasion given the previous Salmonella status included: Salmonella infection of day-old chicks (of the current flock); a previously infected flock even though the farm was equipped with a hygiene place to change clothes prior to entering the broiler house; having temporary workmen when there was a separation between birds of different species; and separating birds of different species in the Walloon region relative to the Flanders region. Sanitary measures such as a cleaning and disinfecting procedure conducted by an external cleaning firm, applying the all-in all-out procedure, and hand washing decreased the risk despite their interaction with other factors. From the joint analysis, the most important factors identified for increased risk for persistent Salmonella on a farm involved the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with foreign poultry or persons, and the interaction between having temporary workmen when there were poultry or farmers in contact with external poultry or persons.     

吉林省玉米生产自然灾害风险评估与气象灾害产量的影响因素研究

结合吉林省玉米生产情况,分析玉米生产中自然灾害风险大小与发生规律,采用信息扩散理论风险概率评估模型,测算玉米生产中主要灾害因子的发生概率,构建气象灾害产量影响因素分析模型,估计影响吉林省气象灾害产量的主要因素。结果表明,吉林省玉米生产自然灾害风险较大,水、旱灾害发生的概率较高,是导致玉米灾害产量形成的主要原因。     

小概率原理在林火预报中的应用

对于林火预报工作中一些不能准确预测未来或尚未发生的事件,我们可以对火灾历史资料进行统计分析,找出林火发生发展规律,应用小概率事件原理,对林火发生的可能性进行预估假设检验,从而解决问题。本文将通过实例应用来说明。     

篮球最佳投篮时机的选择

篮球比赛中,投篮时机的选择对运动员的投篮命中率和比赛胜负影响巨大。在自已投篮命中率较高的位置或区域,在避开防守队员防守,在出现投篮机会且又有同伴处于抢篮板球的有利位置,在进攻战术成功后或战术需要时应果断出手投篮。