基于GIS和RS的黄龙山林区土地时空动态变化分析

以黄龙山林区为研究对象,结合1990年、2000年、2008年3期TM图像,运用RS和GIS技术分析黄龙林区1990-2008年间土地利用动态的空间变化过程,并利用马尔柯夫模型对土地动态变化及演变趋势进行预测分析。结果表明:2000年以前,土地利用变化快,土地利用动态度为1.60%,并且转移较分散,而从2000年以后,土地利用动态度降为0.94%,转移方向趋于集中;1990-2008年期间,有林地面积增加最多,达427.06km2,疏林地和未利用地面积大幅减少,耕地面积先增后减,主要土地利用转变方式为其他土地利用类型转向有林地;预测结果表明:2008年以后的16a内(2008-2024年),研究区内耕地、疏林地、未利用地等将进一步减少且增减幅度不断降低;有林地和其他林地面积将继续增加,城乡用地和水域等也有增减但幅度不大。     

容忍最小收益下带干扰的双C O X风险模型

Lundberg-Cramer经典保险风险模型及其推广后的许多风险模型在研究破产概率时都假定破产时刻为盈余过程首次取负值的时刻.但在保险实务中,当盈余低于容忍最小收益时,保险公司就很难再经营下去或需要调整经营策略.在定义盈余低于容忍最小收益时的时刻为破产时刻的基础上,建立一个带干扰且保费随机收取的双COX风险模型,利用鞅论方法,研究其最终破产概率的性质及Lundberg型不等式.     

长江经济带景观格局对生态系统服务价值影响的概率评估

经济的快速发展改变了区域景观格局,定量评价景观格局变化对生态系统服务价值的影响是实现生态文明建设和高质量发展的重要途径。该研究以长江经济带为研究对象,使用1980—2020年8期土地利用数据,在渔网分析的基础上,采用线性回归和相关性检验方法分析了4种景观格局指数和生态系统服务总价值的时空演化特征与线性响应,最后通过构建非线性概率评估框架,定量评估了生态系统服务总价值对景观格局指数变化的敏感性。结果表明：1）1980—2020年间,耕地、林地和草地是长江经济带的主要土地利用类型,耕地和林地面积逐年减少,其他土地利用面积均有所增加。2）四川省南部、云南省东部、贵州省西部和重庆市等地区多年平均景观分离度指数较大,景观破碎化严重。长江经济带43.97%地区景观分离度指数和64.28%的区域的香农多样性指数显著增加,大部分地区景观呈现均衡化和多样化发展,城市化会降低生态系统服务总价值。3）景观分离度和香农多样性指数的增加可能加剧景观破碎化,导致生态系统服务价值的降低。4）根据概率评估框架,较高的生态系统服务总价值对景观分离度指数或香农多样性指数比较敏感,林地和草地是影响长江经济带生态系统服务总价值变化的主导景观。研究成果有助于掌握长江经济带景观格局和生态系统服务的变化特征,从而进一步为长江经济带生态保护与高质量发展提供科学依据。     

Adaptive relay selection algorithm in decode-and-forward cooperative communication networks

An adaptive relay selection algorithm(ARS) is proposed to optimize the performance of decode-and-forward cooperative communication networks, both system outage probability and average numbers of cooperative relays are analyzed. When the direct transmission between source and destination is fail, according to the channel quality, the destination orders relay nodes in the decode set, and the ordered relays are included in cooperation in turn until the instantaneous received SNR at destination is not smaller than the preset SNR threshold. Simulation results show that, the proposed algorithm can get optimal outage performance, decrease the average numbers of cooperative relays efficiently, to incrense bandwidth efficiency and reduce system overhead.     

生态文明建设视角下的高标准农田建设适宜性评价

在全面推进生态文明建设的当下,中国的耕地保护工作进入数量、质量、生态"三位一体"保护新时代,以耕地质量提升为中心的高标准农田建设对生态保护和修复的作用意义重大。本文以吉林省梅河口市为研究区,结合农用地等别更新、土地利用现状调查、土壤普查报告及实地调查采样数据,从耕地的自然禀赋、基础设施状况、空间特征和生态环境质量4个方面选取耕层质地、排水条件、田块规模、土壤综合污染指数等14个指标,运用贝叶斯概率模型对高标准农田建设进行适宜性评价,以期为梅河口市高标准农田建设项目规划布局与选址提供技术服务支撑。研究表明:①在高标准农田建设中,耕地坡度、障碍层距地表深度、有机质含量、有效土层厚度、田间道路通达度、土壤微生物生物量碳和土壤综合污染指数7个指标对高标准农田建设适宜性的影响程度较大;②根据后验概率结果,将梅河口市耕地划分为4个不同程度的建设适宜性区,今后高标准农田建设首先在优先建设区开展,同时后备建设区为其提供了可靠的保证;③耕地本底质量和基础设施条件良好状况下,应引入土壤微生物生物量碳、生物丰度系数和土壤综合污染指数等指标从生态保护的角度进一步划分建设适宜性程度。本文旨在实现生态服务功能和生产功能同步提升,从而为生态文明建设的理论思考和实践创新提供科学依据。     

越橘品质指标评价

【目的】 探讨越橘品质指标间的相互关系,构建和完善越橘品质性状的综合评价体系,为合理评价越橘品质提供理论参考。【方法】 以92份越橘果实为材料,测定单果重、果形指数、果实硬度、维生素C含量、可溶性固形物含量、可滴定酸含量、固酸比7项品质指标,运用相关分析揭示指标间的相互关系,运用正态分布理论进行品质指标概率分级,利用因子分析确定越橘品质评价指标,运用层次分析确立评价指标的权重并建立指标评分标准。【结果】 越橘品质指标间离散程度差异很大,其变异系数分别为67.12%（固酸比）、45.46%（可滴定酸含量）、35.28%（单果重）、23.48%（维生素C含量）、18.23%（可溶性固形物含量）、18.05%（果实硬度）和6.05%（果形指数）。可滴定酸含量和维生素C含量均服从正态分布,概率值P均大于0.05,果形指数、果实硬度和可溶性固形物含量去掉个别极端值后,也服从正态分布,单果重的概率值P为0.0494,接近0.05,视为符合正态分布,固酸比呈偏态分布。可滴定酸含量和固酸比之间呈极显著的负相关,相关系数为-0.81742,二者间存在极显著的幂函数变化趋势,决定系数R ²为0.9005。筛选出4项越橘品质代表性指标,包括可溶性固形物含量（甜味指标）、可滴定酸含量（酸味指标）、维生素C含量（营养指标）和果实硬度（质地指标）,4项代表性指标划分为5个等级,即极低、低、中、高和极高。建立4项代表性指标评分标准,将92份越橘果实划分为3个等级,即优等、中等和差等。 【结论】 越橘品质代表性指标包括可溶性固形物含量、可滴定酸含量、维生素C含量和果实硬度,建立的4项品质指标评分标准可用于越橘品质的科学评价与分类。     

带借贷利率和干扰的双Poisson-Geometric风险过程模型

考虑了带借贷利率及干扰的双复合Poisson-Geometric风险过程,借助全期望公式、微分和伊藤积分等知识,并综合引起破产的原因得到无限时破产概率积分微分方程和有限时破产概率的积分偏微分方程.     

含气率对小流量下混流式混输泵轴系振动的影响

振动是反映混输泵运行稳定性的关键指标,液体含气率对混输泵的振动强度有重要影响.为探究小流量工况下含气率变化对混输泵轴系振动的影响规律,该研究以某3级混流式气液混输泵为研究对象,采用建立的多通道振动测试系统采集小流量工况下混输泵输送不同含气率的水时主轴和轴承座的振动信号,然后分析水中含气率对主轴和轴承座振动特性的影响规律...     

Study on a soil erosion sampling survey in the Pan-Third Pole region based on higher-resolution images

Soil erosion is one of the most severe global environmental problems, and soil erosion surveys are the scientific basis for planning soil conservation and ecological development. To improve soil erosion sampling survey methods and accurately and rapidly estimate the actual rates of soil erosion, a Pan-Third Pole region was taken as an example to study a methodology of soil erosion sampling survey based on high-spatial-resolution remote sensing images. The sampling units were designed using a stratified variable probability systematic sampling method. The spatiotemporal characteristics of soil erosion and conservation were taken into account, and finer-resolution freely available and accessible images in Google Earth were used. Through the visual interpretation of the free high-resolution remote sensing images, detailed information on land use and soil conservation measures was obtained. Then, combined with the regional soil erosion factor data products, such as rainfall-runoff erosivity factor (R), soil erodibility factor (K), and slope length and steepness factor (LS), the soil loss rates of some sampling units were calculated. The results show that, based on these high-resolution remote sensing images, the land use and soil conservation measures of the sampling units can be quickly and accurately extracted. The interpretation accuracy in 4 typical cross sections was more than 80%, and sampling accuracy, described by histogram similarity in 11 large sampling sites, show that the landuse of sampling uints can represent the structural characteristics of regional land use. Based on the interpretation of data from the sample survey and the regional soil erosion factor data products, the calculation of the soil erosion rate can be completed quickly. The calculation results can reflect the actual conditions of soil erosion better than the potential soil erosion rates calculated by using the coarse-resolution remote sensing method.     

Effects of landscape urbanization on magpie occupancy dynamics in France

Responses of species to landscape modifications are generally documented through their distribution at a given time along an intensity gradient of land transformation. By focusing on patterns, we are limited to infer ecological processes occurring within a system and its response to environmental disturbances which can further change over time. Using diachronic datasets at the scale of France, we analyzed the spatial responses of the black-billed magpie, which has recently colonized cities, to landscape urbanization. This study applied recently developed statistical approaches incorporating detection uncertainty of the magpie, based on the capture-recapture statistical framework. We tested whether, and how, extinction and colonization mechanisms influenced variations of magpie occupancy from 2001 to 2005. In addition, we assessed the importance of the recent urbanization of the French countryside in determining population dynamics. Overall, our analysis proved that the proportion of urban areas and recent urbanization in France led to an increase in the probability of magpie occupancy. Unexpectedly, the species is concomitantly disappearing from the countryside, leading to a rapid change in the distribution of the species. This study stressed the importance of incorporating detection uncertainty in inference process about spatial dynamics. Overall, we show how useful it is to account for the dynamic evolution of the landscape in ecological studies.