Numerical Simulation of Berthing Velocity of the Ship

Based on the field data of berthing velocity for the ship (10000t-50000t), the berthing velocities have been numerically simulated by using Monte Carlo method in this paper. After statistical tests, it shows that the maximum values of the berthing velocity follow a Gumber distribution and the probability curves of failure for the means of maximum values are also obtained. The present results have been compared with the ones determined by specification of harbor engineering both at home and abroad.     

MEASURING PROBABILITY OF SKY BRIGHTNESS IN CLASSIFICATION BY THE AVERAGE INSOLATION

According to the daily change law from curves for percentage insolation,this paper presents a new formula of the average insolation in the zones where the insolation is more than 70%. By means of the hourly observing data during two years for solar direct ratiation, cloudage and sunshine condition in seven zones different lighting climate,considering the vaper pressure and the altitude present the function of percentage insolation and the probability of four sky brightness classification,this formula has a certain precision to be proved by observation.     

A methodology for evaluating a location as a selection site for an international plant breeding program

Summary A method for comparing locations as selection sites based upon their abilities to predict yield and disease reaction over a target region is proposed. The probability of coincidence in selection for a site is defined as the probability for a line selected at the site to be selected at other sites within the region. The probability of divergence in rejection is defined as that associated with regional selection of a line given that is discarded by the site where selection is being conducted. The ideal selection site would maximize the probability of coincidence in selection and minimize the probability of divergence in rejection. The method is illustrated using a set of data from the rice yield nurseries of the International Rice Testing Program for Latin America planted under the rainfed conditions of Central América and México during the period 1978–1984. Five locations were compared for their predictive ability in selecting for the rainfed rice growing region, based on yield and disease reaction. Selection for yield was defined as performance superior to the best check in each location. Selection for disease reaction was based on an index derived from the Standard Evaluation System for Rice for diseases of regional importance. Locations varies 10–15 percent in their selection coincidence with the region for both yield and disease selection criteria applied independently.     

利用Markov过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化

根据浙江安吉山区2个时期山地资源清查资料获得的土地利用类型数据,成功地确定了土地利用类型的转移矩阵,并用Markov链模型预测了该山区土地利用类型变化趋势.结果表明,当前该区的土地利用格局正处在一种荒山、农田、居民点及水域逐渐减少,林地、果园用地逐渐增加的变化状态,而且这种变化将持续很长时间,最后达到以山区林地78.4%为主体,同时湿地在不断减少的新的土地利用格局.表3参11     

噪声对瞬时测频接收机性能的影响

瞬时测频接收机性能最基本的要求就是测频精度，而空问内的各种非接收信号的电磁辐射源和由于各种反射体引起与接收信号路程差的反射信号等噪声信号，对瞬时测频接收机的测频精度和频率的分辨力的性能有着不可忽视的影响，并且这种影响具有不确定性。本文着重分析了噪声对瞬时测频接收机测频误差、系统的灵敏度及接收机的虚警概率和探测概率所造成的影响。     

腐蚀管道的失效概率和剩余寿命预测方法

以腐蚀管道失效压力和腐蚀速率分析为基础,建立了腐蚀管道可靠性极限状态函数和管道剩余寿命预测模型.采用改进的一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管道的可靠性指标和失效概率进行了分析和计算.结合工程实例,求解了某含腐蚀缺陷天然气管道不同服役年限的可靠性指标和失效概率,预测了该腐蚀管道的剩余寿命,计算和分析了工作压力、腐蚀速率、腐蚀深度和长度等参数对腐蚀管道可靠性的影响.     

评价企业合作伙伴的集值统计方法

针对企业联盟合作伙伴的评价问题，讨论了确定评价指标值以及指标权重的一种集值统计方法。考虑联盟合作伙伴应具备的技术和经营能力，建立了评价指标体系。对于一些很难给出准确评价值的评价指标。给出了当指标值取值区间给定时，计算评价指标值及其置信度的方法和公式。分析了影响指标权重的因素，主要包括评价者对指标的重视程度、指标在决策中的作用、指标评价值的置信度，基于这些因素得出了计算指标权重的方法，为评价合作伙伴提供了定量分析。具体算例表明评价方法合理、可行。     

沈阳市降水概率预报模式研究

利用日本数值天气预报产品和地面天气图，集成多种统计学方法对沈阳市降水概率进行预报，经专家订正后对社会发布。本预报模式避免了单一统计学方法的局限性，并且实现了历史因子的自动追加，能够反映最新的天气信息。经在沈阳市气象台一年的试预报，根据预报结果计算得半贝里尔得分B=0．065；Bias得分为Bias=2％；预报技巧得分Bs=80．8％。同时准确率明显高于日本数值预报结果。     

异步电机效率测试误差的分析计算

用间接测量法分析了异步电动机效率测试的随机误差规律,研究了效率测试误差区域的计算方法,并作了实测计算例证。     

玉米弯孢菌叶斑病侵染概率测定

试验采用人工接种方法，初步测定了室内和田间条件下玉米不同生育期的病害侵染概率。结果表明，玉米弯孢菌侵染概率界于0.0101-0.2628之间，其中玉米拔节期室内离体叶保湿接种侵染概率平均值为0．1627，而玉米拔节期田间雨天 接种侵染概率平均值为0．1543；玉米开花期室内离体叶保湿接种侵染概率平均值为0．2628；而玉米开花期田间干旱条件下接种，侵染概率平均值仅为0.0101。玉米在开花期比拔节期抗病性差，同时湿度是影响侵染概率高低的主要因素。试验为玉米弯孢菌叶斑病流行模型的组建提供了理论依据。