A comparison of diameter distribution models for Khaya ivorensis A.Chev. plantations in Brazil

The purpose of this study was to compare Beta, Gamma, Johnson's S_B and Weibull functions fitted by different methods for describing the horizontal structure of Khaya ivorensis (African mahogany) plantations in Brazil. The database comprised 128 plots from six plantations at varying ages. The function fits were compared using the Kolmogoroff–Smirnoff test, mean bias and mean absolute error for the number of trees and basal area per hectare per diameter class. Johnson's S_B outperformed the other functions, although all functions provided an adequate fit. The best methods were method of moments and maximum likelihood fitted using 25% of the minimum observed diameter as the location parameter for the Johnson's S_B function. The errors were greater in diameter classes with higher frequencies. Location and scale parameters were highly correlated with mean diameter and age for the Weibull and Johnson's S_B functions, respectively, which is convenient for diameter prediction. Gamma's scale parameter had medium correlation with age. Beta's parameters had low correlation with stand attributes assessed.     

黄河干流水文缺水分类模型研究

本文通过对黄河干流节点径流频率分析和超越机率分析,推求了节点水文缺水量。通过制定黄河干流水文缺水等级划分标准,用节点天然径流系列为样本,建立了节点水文缺水分类模型。应用分类模型,进一步得到了节点缺水状态转移概率矩阵。节点水文缺水分类模型和状态转移概率矩阵将会对黄河干流水资源合理配置提供决策依据。     

浅谈建设项目经济评价方法不确定性分析

本文简要分析不确定性因素对经济评价指标的影响,和不确定性分析的几种方法,确定项目在经济上的可靠性。     

基于贝叶斯网络的中医辨证系统

将贝叶斯网络运用于中医辨证系统的研究,以更加量化中医辨证诊断系统.通过将中医体系中的916个证候,51项证素及其构成的1700条证名构成中医辨证贝叶斯网络的节点集,初步建立起中医辨证数据库并通过网络学习,形成中医辨证贝叶斯网络结构及概率表.利用建立的贝叶斯网络中医辨证系统,进行数据计量分析、推理验证证候—证素—证名间的关系,其结果与中医专家经验有很高的吻合性,尽管其仍未能全面反映中医辨证的思维能力.所以贝叶斯网络是对中医辨证进行信息挖掘处理的一种较好方法,可应用于中医人工智能辨证系统的建立.     

Numerical Simulation of Berthing Velocity of the Ship

Based on the field data of berthing velocity for the ship (10000t-50000t), the berthing velocities have been numerically simulated by using Monte Carlo method in this paper. After statistical tests, it shows that the maximum values of the berthing velocity follow a Gumber distribution and the probability curves of failure for the means of maximum values are also obtained. The present results have been compared with the ones determined by specification of harbor engineering both at home and abroad.     

MEASURING PROBABILITY OF SKY BRIGHTNESS IN CLASSIFICATION BY THE AVERAGE INSOLATION

According to the daily change law from curves for percentage insolation,this paper presents a new formula of the average insolation in the zones where the insolation is more than 70%. By means of the hourly observing data during two years for solar direct ratiation, cloudage and sunshine condition in seven zones different lighting climate,considering the vaper pressure and the altitude present the function of percentage insolation and the probability of four sky brightness classification,this formula has a certain precision to be proved by observation.     

A methodology for evaluating a location as a selection site for an international plant breeding program

Summary A method for comparing locations as selection sites based upon their abilities to predict yield and disease reaction over a target region is proposed. The probability of coincidence in selection for a site is defined as the probability for a line selected at the site to be selected at other sites within the region. The probability of divergence in rejection is defined as that associated with regional selection of a line given that is discarded by the site where selection is being conducted. The ideal selection site would maximize the probability of coincidence in selection and minimize the probability of divergence in rejection. The method is illustrated using a set of data from the rice yield nurseries of the International Rice Testing Program for Latin America planted under the rainfed conditions of Central América and México during the period 1978–1984. Five locations were compared for their predictive ability in selecting for the rainfed rice growing region, based on yield and disease reaction. Selection for yield was defined as performance superior to the best check in each location. Selection for disease reaction was based on an index derived from the Standard Evaluation System for Rice for diseases of regional importance. Locations varies 10–15 percent in their selection coincidence with the region for both yield and disease selection criteria applied independently.     

利用Markov过程预测安吉土地利用格局的变化

根据浙江安吉山区2个时期山地资源清查资料获得的土地利用类型数据,成功地确定了土地利用类型的转移矩阵,并用Markov链模型预测了该山区土地利用类型变化趋势.结果表明,当前该区的土地利用格局正处在一种荒山、农田、居民点及水域逐渐减少,林地、果园用地逐渐增加的变化状态,而且这种变化将持续很长时间,最后达到以山区林地78.4%为主体,同时湿地在不断减少的新的土地利用格局.表3参11     

噪声对瞬时测频接收机性能的影响

瞬时测频接收机性能最基本的要求就是测频精度，而空问内的各种非接收信号的电磁辐射源和由于各种反射体引起与接收信号路程差的反射信号等噪声信号，对瞬时测频接收机的测频精度和频率的分辨力的性能有着不可忽视的影响，并且这种影响具有不确定性。本文着重分析了噪声对瞬时测频接收机测频误差、系统的灵敏度及接收机的虚警概率和探测概率所造成的影响。     

腐蚀管道的失效概率和剩余寿命预测方法

以腐蚀管道失效压力和腐蚀速率分析为基础,建立了腐蚀管道可靠性极限状态函数和管道剩余寿命预测模型.采用改进的一次二阶矩法对腐蚀管道的可靠性指标和失效概率进行了分析和计算.结合工程实例,求解了某含腐蚀缺陷天然气管道不同服役年限的可靠性指标和失效概率,预测了该腐蚀管道的剩余寿命,计算和分析了工作压力、腐蚀速率、腐蚀深度和长度等参数对腐蚀管道可靠性的影响.