Predicting the spatial distribution of ground flora on large domains using a hierarchical Bayesian model

Accomodation of important sources of uncertainty in ecological models is essential to realistically predicting ecological processes. The purpose of this project is to develop a robust methodology for modeling natural processes on a landscape while accounting for the variability in a process by utilizing environmental and spatial random effects. A hierarchical Bayesian framework has allowed the simultaneous integration of these effects. This framework naturally assumes variables to be random and the posterior distribution of the model provides probabilistic information about the process. Two species in the genus Desmodium were used as examples to illustrate the utility of the model in Southeast Missouri, USA. In addition, two validation techniques were applied to evaluate the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of the predictions.This revised version was published online in May 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

塔里木河干流中游灌区退耕封育效益分析

塔里木河干流中游灌区退耕封育的规模为 9× 10 3 hm2 ,其中 ,库灌区退耕 1.4 2× 10 3 hm2 ,河灌区退耕 3.5 7× 10 3 hm2 ,泵灌区退耕 4 .0 1× 10 3 hm2 。退耕封育后 ,农田灌溉用水改为生态灌溉用水 ,用水量减少。人工种植的农作物被天然野生植被所替代 ,同时可提高对保留耕地的利用率 ,扩大耕地的播种面积 ,增加地表植被的覆盖度。退耕封育后 ,可节约水量 0 .97× 10 8m3 ,除满足封育生态用水外 ,还可增加塔里木河下泄水量 0 .31× 10 8m3 。     

利用人工增雨为农田需水服务的信息系统框架

针对我国北方地区水资源严重短缺、农田水分供需矛盾日益尖锐的现状 ,提出了首选人工增雨为农田补水的思路 ,并初步设计了一个利用人工增雨为农田需水服务的农田需水信息系统框架。     

安宁河流域黑麦草、白三叶的生长测定

在最冷的12月至2月对四川凉山州安宁河流域的黑麦草、白三叶进行生长测定,结果证实,在当地建高产人工草地可作当家品种,冬季无停止生长期,最低产量可在5000kg以上,放牧利用的停牧周期在一月以内为好,预计年刈割周期次数为6～8次。     

The Effect of Inoculation Treatment and Long-term Application of Moisture on Fusarium Head Blight Symptoms and Deoxynivalenol Contamination in Wheat Grains

Fusarium head blight (FHB) is an important disease of wheat, which can result in the contamination of grains with mycotoxins such as deoxynivalenol (DON). Artificial inoculation of flowering ears with conidial suspensions is widely used to study FHB diseases. Our goal was to compare four inoculation treatments in which a conidial suspension was sprayed on flowering ears and to study the effect of the application of moisture during kernel setting and filling with a mist-irrigation system. Ten wheat genotypes were inoculated with a DON-producing Fusarium culmorum strain. Inoculation treatments varied in time of application of the inoculum (morning or evening) and in the method of controlling humidity during inoculation (bagging or mist irrigation). A wet season was simulated with a mist-irrigation system, keeping the crop canopy wet for at least 26 days after flowering. The severity of FHB symptoms (area under disease progress curve (AUDPC)), yield loss and DON contamination in the grains were determined. AUDPC data obtained with the different inoculation treatments were highly correlated (r=0.85–0.95). Mist irrigation after inoculation resulted in a higher mean disease severity, but in a overall lower toxin contamination as compared to the non-irrigated treatments. Genotypic differences in DON accumulation were present: for one wheat line toxin contamination significantly increased when irrigated, while two genotypes accumulated significantly less toxin. The closest relationships (r=0.73–0.89) between the visual symptoms and the DON content were obtained under moderate mean infection pressure. This relation between visual symptoms and the DON content deteriorated at higher infection levels.     

退耕还草产业化技术经济效果评价方法探讨

以平凉市退耕还草产业化技术开发为例,以产业化系统链中各子系统间的功能协调统一为依据,以退耕还草产业化机制为纽带,在研究建立平凉市退耕还草产业化技术经济效果包括4个一级指标(基础指标、配套指标、服务指标和效益指标)和17个二级指标体系的基础上,采用层次分析法(AHP法)、隶属度函数法和综合效益指数法作为退耕还草产业化技术经济效果的评价方法.经比较得出:平凉市退耕还草产业化技术开发综合指数达到0.595 1,属初步产业化阶段,相对发展指数达到27.268%,年均产业化进步速度达到6.817%.     

生物牛黄中间体的抗病毒作用及对家兔血液流变学指标的影响

运用比较药理学方法研究了生物牛黄中间体与天然牛黄、人工牛黄在抗病毒及对家兔血液流变学指标影响方面的不同。结果显示，生物牛黄中间体以25、50、100mg／kg体质量及人工牛黄50mg／kg体质量灌胃给药的大鼠含药血清，灭活后，在10倍稀释的情况下，在鸡胚成纤维细胞上使新城疫Ⅰ系疫苗毒的TCID50升高1个滴度；生理盐水组、天然牛黄50mg／kg体质量组10倍稀释大鼠含药血清，灭活后，在鸡胚戍纤维细胞上使新城疫Ⅰ系疫苗毒的TCID50降低1.5个滴度。生物牛黄中间体以25、50、100mg／kg体质量灌胃给药，可明显降低高分子右旋糖酐所致“血瘀”家兔的血沉值、血沉方程K值和红细胞聚集指数；天然牛黄50mg／kg体质量组对血沉值和血沉方程K值具有显著降低作用；人工牛黄50mg／kg体质量组时血沉值具有显著降低作用。     

母牛一胎双犊技术的研究

选择9头母牛先行人工授精、7天后再移植冷冻胚胎以生产双犊。试验结果表明,母牛产双犊达44.44%(P<0.01)。提示:采用A(I人工授精)+ET(胚胎移植)是提高母牛双犊率的有效技术措施之一。     

三江源区土壤侵蚀变化及驱动因素分析

采用修正通用土壤流失方程(revised universal soil loss equation, RUSLE)对三江源区1997-2012年的土壤侵蚀模数和土壤侵蚀量进行定量模拟,并对其生态工程实施前、后时空变化特征进行对比分析,采用空间叠加法分析降雨侵蚀力及植被覆盖度对土壤侵蚀状况的影响,利用模型参数控制法对气候变化和生态工程对土壤侵蚀变化的贡献率进行分析。结果表明:1)生态工程实施后,三江源区土壤侵蚀增加的趋势尚未得到遏制,多年平均年土壤侵蚀模数和侵蚀量较工程实施前增加6.5%,但局部地区土壤侵蚀状况有所好转,约占总面积的45%;2)长江流域在工程实施后的土壤侵蚀量与工程实施前基本持衡;黄河流域土壤侵蚀量增加明显,增幅超过45%;澜沧江流域土壤侵蚀量有所下降,降幅为9.8%;3)降水增强导致土壤侵蚀加剧的贡献率达到180%,植被恢复对土壤侵蚀变化的贡献率为-80%。全面遏制三江源区土壤侵蚀增加趋势,仍需持续努力。     

近15年新疆伊犁河谷草地退化时空变化特征

以伊犁河谷为研究区,利用MODIS NDVI数据及像元二分模型,反演草地植被覆盖度,以草地植被覆盖度为评价标准,结合数字高程模型(digital elevation model,DEM)数据及Getis-Ord Gi*冷/热点分析方法,对伊犁河谷2001-2015年草地退化的时空特征进行了分析。结果表明,1)受持续过度放牧及气候条件影响,2001-2015年伊犁河谷草地整体持续退化,15年内退化草地比例达46.18%,但退化以轻度为主;2)空间上退化草地的分布范围逐步向高海拔区域扩展,海拔1 500-3 000 m的中山和中高山区退化草地扩张最明显;3)草地生态保护政策的实施减缓了草地退化速度,草地退化与改善的空间差异逐渐明显,以退化为主的单一变化趋势有所改变;4)利用NDVI反演植被覆盖度对草地退化进行评价的方法存在对高植被覆盖区域草地退化敏感性相对较弱的缺陷。