天气衍生品的运作机制与精算定价

天气衍生品是为了规避天气风险给天气敏感行业带来收入的不稳定性而兴起的创新型风险管理工具，其实质是通过衍生合约对天气风险进行分割、重组和交易的证券化产品。不同于传统金融衍生品，天气衍生品的价值取决于温度、湿度或降雨量等天气指数。本文在分析天气衍生品市场发展的基础上，重点探讨了最常见的天气期货和天气期权的运作机制及其精算定价。     

祁连山南麓高寒灌丛GPP变化特征及对生长季积温的响应

全球气候变化背景下气温逐渐升高,将会对陆地生态系统碳循环产生重要影响。研究利用2003?2016年的涡度相关系统观测资料,研究了祁连山南麓高寒灌丛生长季(5月?9月)总初级生产力(gross primary productivity,GPP)在不同时间尺度上对生长季有效积温(growing season degree days,GDD)的响应,对于研究气候变暖对高寒生态系统碳循环的影响有重要意义。结果表明:高寒灌丛生态系统在生长季的月GPP、GDD都表现为先增大后减小的单峰变化趋势,都在7月或8月达到峰值,在5月达到最小值。在整个生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD具有较高变异性,但整体上表现为逐渐增加的趋势(P<0.05)。2003?2016年整个生长季GPP与GDD的均值分别为507.11 g·m^?2和975.93℃。在月尺度和生长季尺度上,GPP与GDD都呈显著正相关关系(P<0.05)。但是,通过比较生长季每个月GPP与GDD的关系发现,5、9月的GPP与GDD没有显著相关性(P>0.05),而在7月相关性最为显著(P<0.01)。整体上看,高寒灌丛生态系统植被的总初级生产力与热量条件表现为正相关关系,由此说明在全球气候变暖的背景下,青藏高原高寒灌丛生态系统植被的光合生产能力将会提高。     

Effect of the Silicic Acid Polymerization Degree on the Coagulating Property of Polyalumium Silicate Chloride

Polyaluminum silicate is a new type of inorganic macromolecular flocculants, which is developed as a complex product in recent years on the base of polyalumium flocculant and polysilicic acid flocculant. Sodium silicate is diluted to the concentration of 3.0% SiO 2 with distilled water. The solution was adjusted to pH 4.5 with sulphate acid and kept at quiescency for different time to get polysilicic acid with different polymerization degrees. Using polysilicic acid prepared and aluminium chloride as materials, a series of polyaluminium silicate chlorides(PASC) with different basicities(B), Al/Si molar ratios and polymerization degree of silicic acid are prepared by copolymerization technique. The Al-Ferron timed complex colorimetric method is applied to characterize species distribution of PASC and to study its influence factors. The interaction between hydrolyzed aluminum species and polysilicic acid with different polymerization degrees in PASC is discussed.The flocculant prepared is applied to the treatment of commercial concrete wastewater. The turbidity removal of commercial concrete wastewater is up to 97% when a PASC, prepared with polysilicic acid of 145 min polymerization degree.     

Reasoning Method Based on Motorcycle Design

According to the needs of setting up a professional system based on motorcycle design,the CBR(case based reasoning) and RBR(rule based reasoning) methods are introduced.After discussing the difference between the two kinds of reasoning,a method of integrating them into the motorcycle design flow is put forward to realize the design reusable technology and improve the design efficiency,by using the CBR in the step of selecting the similar motorcycle and the RBR in project's modification according to correlative rules.     

Customer Service Satisfaction Evaluation System and Method Viewed From Supply Chain Management

Based on experience in customer service evaluation,through the analysis of many factors affecting customer satisfaction calculation estimate, customer service evaluation rules as well as customer-oriented and supply chain partner-oriented methods are developed and discussed from the view of supply chain, besides, we construct two sets of customer satisfaction evaluation systems, in which we perform non-dimensional analysis on evaluation system to form single factor evaluation matrix after using improved AHP to determine each factor item's weighting ,utilizing fuzzy decision theory to construct evaluation model for integrated estimate. This evaluation method is scientific, round and objective with more stability and convienience in practical use.     

Weighting Coefficient Optimization Unification of Lexicographic Method in Fuzzy Multi -objective Optimization Design

The Lexicographic method has subjective and empirical character,so a weighting coefficient is introduced by considering the importance and proportion of each individual object,the preferable result of every individual object can be confirmed by comparing the degree of similarity between the perfect one and the ecumenic one and the Fuzzy optimization will be perfect.The effectiveness of these methods is illustrated by a fuzzy optimal design of the three-bar truss.     

Application of Matter Element Analysis in Assessment of Ambient Air Quality

A new method for assessment of ambient air quality is proposed by using matter element analysis.This model is simple and reasonable in assessment.The practical example is given,and compared with other methods.     

基于灰色关联度变权法的浅层地下水环境质量综合评价

引入指数型白化权函数对灰色关联度变权法中的白化权函数进行修正,使得能够对地下水更合理、客观、准确地评价。将晋江市浅层地下水看作一个灰色系统,在灰色关联度变权法模型基础上,对各水质监测点不同类别的隶属度和灰色关联度作对比分析判断其评价等级以及质量优劣次序,说明灰色关联度变权法对地下水环境质量综合评价方法适当。研究区内绝大多数地区水质状况良好,影响区域地下水质量的指标主要为TDS、锰、硝酸盐、亚硝酸盐、氨氮、氯化物,水质较差区主要分布于沿海工业分布较密集区及引污水灌溉农田地区,说明工农业发展、人类活动加剧及海水入侵是造成本区水质变化的主要原因之一。     

Performance of agency-managed and farmer-managed irrigation systems: A comparative case study at Chitwan, Nepal

Management reforms are considered one of the best alternatives in increasing efficiency of the irrigation systems. Transfer of day-to-day operation and maintenance to farmers is not a new concept. However due to lags, even now it is a hot issue in developing countries and Nepal is not an exception. In this context of growing argument about the transfer of management of public irrigation systems to the Water Users' Group, this paper examines the comparative performance of farmer-managed and agency-managed irrigation systems. Khageri Irrigation System in the Chitwan district of Nepal was taken as the study site where complete management transfer has been done in 1996. The situations before and after complete transfer were compared. Intensive case studies of the selected farmers showed that equity in distribution of water and leakage had significantly improved after management transfer. Logit analysis revealed that age and education level of the household head, distance from main canal, leakage of the canal and equity in distribution are significantly related to the satisfaction level of the beneficiary farmers from FMIS compared to AMIS. However, landholding size of the respondent farmer has no significant effect. Similarly results from t-test revealed that rice productivity and overall profits from agriculture has also increased significantly due to irrigation management transfer.