贵州省退耕还林工程社会经济效益阶段评价研究

通过对水城、黎平、望谟、关岭、麻江、黔西、龙里、习水、开阳、铜仁10个退耕还林工程综合效益监测重点县107个固定样地户主共91户退耕农户进行连续4年的跟踪调查，同时结合10个县面上统计数的分析及其典型县204户退耕农户的典型调查，对监测区退耕还林的经济、社会效益进行了评价：退耕还林工程区环境效益经济值明显提高，水土流失得到有效控制；工程区退耕农户收入增加，粮食总产量稳定；退耕还林促进了农村劳动力的转移。     

Surveillance and Early Warning of West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Using Backyard Chickens and Correlation to Human Neuroinvasive Cases

In 2010, a West Nile virus (WNV) epidemic was reported in Central Macedonia, Northern Greece, with 197 neuroinvasive disease (WNND) cases in humans. The following 3 years, WNV spreads to new areas of Greece and human cases reoccurred during the transmission periods. After the initial outbreak, a WNV surveillance system using juvenile backyard chickens was established in Central Macedonia (after the 2011 outbreak) and Eastern Macedonia‐Thrace (after the 2012 outbreak). Sera were screened for the presence of antibodies against WNV using cELISA and serum neutralization test, to monitor the spread of WNV and to assess the correlation between the WNV point seroprevalence in chickens and the incidence rates of human WNND cases in the aforementioned areas. WNV seroprevalence in chickens was 10.4% (95% CI: 7–15) in Central Macedonia (2011) and 18.1% (95% CI: 14–23) in Eastern Macedonia‐Thrace (2012). Seroprevalence in chickens and incidence rates of human WNND cases in Eastern Macedonia‐Thrace were strongly positively correlated (ρ = 0.98, P = 0.005) at the regional unit level, with the incidence of WNND in humans increasing with increasing WNV point seroprevalence in chickens. In Central Macedonia, the correlation was weaker (ρ = 0.68, P = 0.20), apparently due to small number of reported human WNND cases. Another study was also conducted using juvenile backyard chickens in Central Macedonia, aiming to detect early WNV enzootic circulation, before the onset of human cases during 2011 and 2013. The first seroconverted chickens were detected about 1.5 months before the laboratory diagnosis of any human WNND cases in Central Macedonia, for both years. WNV surveillance, using juvenile backyard chickens, was reliable for the identification of areas with WNV enzootic and silent transmission, and for early warning. Timely diffusion of information to public health authorities facilitated the successful implementation of preparedness plans to protect public health.     

Surveillance of Human Rabies by National Authorities – A Global Survey

Effective prevention of deaths due to human rabies is currently hampered by a lack of understanding of the scale of the problem, and the distribution of both animal and human cases across countries, regions and continents. Unfortunately, despite the severity of the disease, accurate data on which to assess these questions and to prioritize and direct public health interventions are not available for many parts of the world. This survey sought to understand the current global situation regarding the surveillance of human rabies. Data were collected from 91 countries across all continents and all categories of human rabies risk, generating the most complete and representative global data set currently available. Respondents were asked key questions about whether human rabies was a notifiable disease, how the surveillance system for human rabies operated and whether the respondent considered that the surveillance system was working effectively. Across the 91 countries from which data were collated, human rabies was a notifiable disease in all but eight. Despite international guidance, surveillance systems were very varied. Even where rabies is a notifiable disease, many countries had surveillance system judged to be ineffective, almost all of these being high and moderate rabies risk countries in Africa and Asia. Overall, 41% of the population covered by this survey (around 2.5 billion people) live in countries where there is no or ineffective rabies surveillance. The lack of robust surveillance is hindering rabies control efforts. However, whilst worldwide rabies surveillance would be improved if rabies were notifiable in all countries, many other challenges to the implementation of effective global human rabies surveillance systems remain.     

社会情境视野下的岭南传统私家园林研究思路

文章通过对社会情境概念进行解析,论述了西方园林史研究范式的变革;针对岭南传统私家园林的研究现状,结合当代国际上的新观点、新动向,探讨了基于社会情境研究园林的构想,旨在为岭南传统私家园林的研究提供新的思路和方法。     

用户视角下新浪微博信息服务质量影响因素研究——基于扎根理论的探索性分析

[目的/意义]新浪微博作为互联网时代的重要社交媒体之一,用户对其信息服务发展质量起关键作用,从用户视角分析新浪微博信息服务质量影响因素,有助于提升新浪微博信息服务水平,提高信息服务效率,促进新浪微博更加人性化发展。[方法/过程]选择扎根理论作为研究方法,通过数据资料收集、三级编码、饱和度检验等过程,构建新浪微博信息服务质量影响因素模型,归纳出用户基础、用户感受、用户需求3个因素及其对信息服务质量的作用,并运用统计方法进行实证分析。[结果/结论]研究结论发现：用户基础、用户感受、用户需求对新浪微博信息服务质量产生显著正向影响,其中用户基础属于保障性因素,用户感受属于关键性因素,用户需求属于驱动性因素。     

社会记忆视角下连州保安村民俗文化景观特色营造

乡村民俗文化景观是社会记忆传承的重要途径,承载了乡村生活、生产、文化实践等社会记忆活动。社会记忆视角乡村民俗文化景观营造研究对增强乡村文化的地方认同,维系良好的乡土社会秩序,实现乡村特色化发展具有重要意义。以粤北地区连州市保安村为例,在调研访谈的基础上,从山水记忆、建筑记忆、民俗记忆 3 方面分析乡村民俗文化景观特质。随着社会的变迁,保安村面临山水记忆意象片段化、建筑记忆空间特色趋同化、民俗记忆传承面临危机等问题。据此,提出以保安村社会记忆载体形成“营造、传承、促进”的内生机制,构建生态记忆、生活记忆和生长记忆的社会记忆体系,营造特色化乡村民俗文化景观的实施策略。     

基于IPA分析的上海典型滨江公共空间游憩满意度

上海黄浦滨江是国内滨水区建设的代表,如今已完成核心段两岸公共空间贯通,但各段发展并不均衡。文章以两岸4段典型公共空间为例,对社交媒体数据进行IPA分析,得到影响滨江各段公共空间游憩满意度的主要因素,并进一步通过方差分析了解4段滨江之间的差异情况。结果表明:1)滨江公共空间整体游憩满意度较高,但多段商业服务、外部交通、管理维护因素的满意度偏低;2)满意度由高到低为:徐汇滨江>世博滨江>杨浦滨江>虹口滨江,体现3种不同的发展程度;3)不同段影响游憩满意度的主要因素不同。最后,根据研究结果对浦江两岸公共空间提出优化建议,以期为城市滨水区规划设计提供有效的技术支持和决策依据。     

石墨烯对喹诺酮在饱和多孔介质中运移的影响

为研究石墨烯（Graphene,GN）对喹诺酮类抗生素在地下水中运移的影响,以环丙沙星（Ciprofloxacin,CIP）和诺氟沙星（Norfloxacin,NOR）作为两种典型的喹诺酮类抗生素污染物,通过批量吸附实验和砂柱实验研究GN对CIP和NOR在饱和多孔介质中运移的影响。吸附实验结果表明,GN对两种抗生素污染物均具有较好的吸附性能,GN对CIP和NOR的Langmuir最大吸附容量分别为270.68 mg·g^-1和178.36 mg·g^-1。砂柱实验结果表明：随着多孔介质中GN含量从10 mg增加到80 mg,CIP和NOR在一维砂柱中的迁移能力降低;随着流速和电解质浓度（Na⁺和Ca²⁺）的增大,回收率逐步升高,CIP和NOR的运移能力也逐步增强。根据BDST模型对不同条件下的CIP和NOR在一维砂柱中的运移过程进行了模拟和预测,模型对穿透时间的预测值与实验值接近,表明BDST模型能较好地预测多孔介质中GN对CIP和NOR迁移能力的影响。     

A multi-analysis approach for space–time and economic evaluation of risks related with livestock diseases: The example of FMD in Peru

This study presents a multi-disciplinary decision-support tool, which integrates geo-statistics, social network analysis (SNA), spatial-stochastic spread model, economic analysis and mapping/visualization capabilities for the evaluation of the sanitary and socio-economic impact of livestock diseases under diverse epidemiologic scenarios. We illustrate the applicability of this tool using foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in Peru as an example. The approach consisted on a flexible, multistep process that may be easily adapted based on data availability. The first module (mI) uses a geo-statistical approach for the estimation (if needed) of the distribution and abundance of susceptible population (in the example here, cattle, swine, sheep, goats, and camelids) at farm-level in the region or country of interest (Peru). The second module (mII) applies SNA for evaluating the farm-to-farm contact patterns and for exploring the structure and frequency of between-farm animal movements as a proxy for potential disease introduction or spread. The third module (mIII) integrates mI–II outputs into a spatial-stochastic model that simulates within- and between-farm FMD-transmission. The economic module (mIV) connects outputs from mI–III to provide an estimate of associated direct and indirect costs. A visualization module (mV) is also implemented to graph and map the outputs of module I–IV. After 1000 simulated epidemics, the mean (95% probability interval) number of outbreaks, infected animals, epidemic duration, and direct costs were 37 (1, 1164), 2152 (1, 13, 250), 63 days (0, 442), and US$ 1.2 million (1072, 9.5 million), respectively. Spread of disease was primarily local (<4.5 km), but geolocation and type of index farm strongly influenced the extent and spatial patterns of an epidemic. The approach is intended to support decisions in the last phase of the FMD eradication program in Peru, in particular to inform and support the implementation of risk-based surveillance and livestock insurance systems that may help to prevent and control potential FMD virus incursions into Peru.     

Syndromic surveillance using laboratory test requests: A practical guide informed by experience with two systems

Syndromic surveillance systems can enhance early disease warning, endemic disease monitoring, or help to accumulate proof of disease freedom. In order to provide immediate feedback to achieve these goals, the health data sources scanned should be acquired continuously, in an automated fashion, and should be stored electronically. Recognizing that data from diagnostic test requests often meet these requirements, two systems designed to automatically extract surveillance information from animal laboratory databases have been developed and are described in this paper. These systems are designed to contribute to early disease detection, as well as the timely management of epidemiological information, in a province of Canada and in Sweden, the areas served by the diagnostic laboratories concerned. Classifying in-coming requests into syndromes, the first step, was the most time-consuming and the least portable step between the two systems. The remaining steps were more easily adjusted from one system to implementation in the other. These steps included: retrospective evaluation of data to create baseline profiles following the removal of excessive noise and aberrations; the identification of temporal effects; prospective evaluation of detection algorithms; and finally real-time monitoring and implementation. Building upon the institutions’ existing data management software, all steps to use those data for the purposes of syndromic surveillance were set up using open source software; as a result this approach could be readily adopted by other institutions. Relatively straight-forward development and maintenance is expected to lead to the incorporation of these systems into each institution's surveillance processes, becoming an indispensable tool for diagnosticians and epidemiologists, as well as stimulating further technical development of such systems.