基于贡献度随机森林模型的公司债信用风险实证分析

运用贡献度随机森林方法（CRF）方法探讨公司债财务指标比率与其违约率的关系.运用连续属性离散化方法（OB）进行财务指标最优降维；运用WOE变换进行模型变量约简.研究表明，CRF模型的分类性能显著优于其他模型，测试集评估总体正确率达90.47%，AUC统计量、AR比率及K-S值分别提升了2.6%、7.6%、4.38%，变量贡献度量化了各财务指标对违约率影响，为诠释随机森林预测机制提供了依据.     

原始云冷杉、红松林树木生长对氮沉降的响应

本文通过野外控制试验，设置4个梯度的施氮处理，分别为对照(CK，不加氮)、低氮(T_L，5 g/(m2·a))、中氮(T_M，10 g/(m2·a))、高氮(T_H，15 g/(m2·a))，研究云冷杉红松林主要树种的径生长对氮沉降增加的响应。结果表明，枫桦径生长随氮添加梯度的增加出现了先促进后抑制的趋势；臭冷杉和红松径生长随氮添加梯度的增加而受到抑制，其中臭冷杉表现出明显的衰退现象甚至死亡；花楷槭则表现出较为复杂的响应，可能与该树种对不同梯度氮添加的响应机制不同有关。同时还发现，各处理、各树种的胸径大小与径生长量存在相关性，可能与树种年龄及其所处的生态位相关。研究表明，氮沉降改变树木生长速率和死亡率，可能影响地上生态系统碳库和整个生态系统碳循环。      

Random point sampling to detect gain and loss in tree canopy cover in response to urban densification

Urban tree canopy cover (UTC) is a simple, and common, measure of urban forest resource. Urban infill development is likely to lead to losses in UTC under private tenure, at a time when local governments are setting ambitious targets to increase UTC overall. Simple, statistically rigorous methods are required to benchmark and track change in UTC, whilst identifying which land-use types or tenures experience change.We estimated UTC in six Melbourne suburbs in 2010 and 2015 by randomly sampling 2000 points across public land, public streetscapes and private land. We were able to detect a net change in UTC of <2% over five years to a 95% level of confidence. A significant net decrease in UTC (−2.4%) was only detected in one of the six suburbs. Two suburbs had a net increase in UTC by +2.7% over five years. On private land, there was often areas of UTC loss, but this was generally offset by canopy gain in other areas of the private realm as well as in streetscapes and public land. Losses in UTC on private land were mainly due to tree removal, with or without subsequent construction works.This study describes a simple, but statistically rigorous, method to quantify UTC change and the drivers of change in different land-use types and tenure. Despite studying two suburbs will high rates of infill development, only one suburb showed evidence of net UTC decrease. The ‘dynamic equilibrium’ in UTC, whereby canopy losses area approximately offset by concurrent canopy gain, means that ambitious targets being set by local governments to increase UTC may be difficult to achieve without changes in tree protection and infill development policy and planning.     

丘陵岗地人工防护林退化成因分析

以桃江县人工防护林为研究对象,分析了导致林地退化的主要原因,包括管护措施不到位、造林技术缺陷、自然灾害侵害、生理老化、环境污染等。针对退化原因,提出了相应的改造措施。     

四川会理县集体林权制度改革探讨

集体林权制度改革是林业建设的重要内容,分析四川会理县集体林权制度改革中存在的经营机制不活、管理模式落后、市场流转机制不活等问题,提出深入推进配套改革的建议。     

The routes to fruit: Governance of urban food trees in Canada

Interest in planting urban food trees (UFTs) in public spaces is growing in popularity as a form of urban greening and a potential food source. Currently there is minimal research on the governance and policy aspects of integrating food trees into cities. To fill this gap, we investigated the characteristics of UFT site governance and how it compares to current urban forest governance. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with relevant municipal officials in Calgary, Edmonton, Toronto and Victoria about their perspectives and involvement with UFT sites in their city. A scan of policy documents was completed to supplement the interviews. The interviews were analyzed using a deductive coding framework based on the Policy Arrangement Approach. We found that key actors at the UFT sites were local organizations and site champions, with minimal municipal engagement. Most site resources provided by municipalities were in-kind. There are also basic knowledge gaps about how to care for UFTs. Currently municipal by-laws prohibit the harvesting and removal of plant material, and are at odds with the purpose of UFT sites, with few municipalities fully integrating UFTs in policies. The primary discussion around UFTs centre concerns for public health and safety, management, and use of public space with limited discussions of benefits. This research demonstrates the value of co-governance models to support UFTs, while a shift in focus from risks to benefits could encourage additional resources and policy integration. Further, including UFTs into policy would also support foraging and food tree maintenance in public spaces, and more fully reflect the plurality of urban forest engagement.     

内蒙古桦木沟林场不同地貌野生花卉资源分布

内蒙古桦木沟林场地形地貌类型广泛,野花资源丰富,尚未得到有效开发。为了解野生花卉资源习性和生物学特征,开发利用野花资源,在路径调查的基础上,采用典型样地调查法,调查分析了其野花资源分布。共调查野花资源177种,隶属于40科129属,菊科、豆科、毛茛科等种类和种群数量较丰富。不同地貌Margalef丰富度指数1.35~8.28,Shannon-Wiener指数变异范围1.42~2.59,Simpson指数为0.59~0.96,湿地草甸、疏林草地物种多样性丰富,沙地多样性最低。湿度、光照等是影响野花多样性分布的重要因素。林场分布着丰富而有较大开发价值的喜光、耐荫、耐涝、喜湿、耐旱等不同生态型野生花卉。部分野生花卉资源濒危,亟需保护。     

湖南桃花源国家森林公园森林景观改造规划

通过对湖南桃花源国家森林公园植被及森林景观的现状分析,在剖析其设计理念与构思的基础上,结合森林公园总体规划布局,采取补植、封育、更新、抚育、综合改造等具体植被改造措施,达到绿化、美化、多样化的森林景观的提质改造建设目标。     

国家级公益林区划成果落界探讨——以兰州市为例

按照国家及甘肃省技术要求、工作流程进行了兰州市国家级公益林区划落界工作,结果为兰州市国家级公益林本期区划落界132611.07 hm^2,剔除了2013年上报中的16104.46 hm^2,在林地类型、区位、权属等方面更符合国家级公益林的条件要求,从地类、生态区位等方面还分析了国家级公益林的面积结构。     

广西县级林地变更调查试点技术方法

为探索广西县级林地年度变更调查技术方法,以鹿寨县为例,运用遥感自动检测技术、森林资源管理信息平台等,对地类及管理属性变化图斑进行变更,形成本期林地数据库和林地变化数据库。文章分析了林地变更调查的关键技术方法,指出了存在的问题,并提出相应的建议。