学术期刊影响因子的应用研究

学术期刊影响因子已经由一种模糊的指标,成为衡量期刊、学术论文、作者、机构等学术研究水平高低的重要的定量测定指标。通过对学术期刊影响因子的使用进行了系统分析,提出影响因子的偏差的负面影响,对如何利用期刊影响因子公正有效的对成果鉴定进行了相关阐述。     

Trend and uncertainty analysis of simulated climate change impacts with multiple GCMs and emission scenarios

Trends and uncertainty of the climate change impacts on hydrology, soil erosion, and wheat production during 2010-2039 at El Reno in central Oklahoma, USA, were evaluated for 12 climate change scenarios projected by four GCMs (CCSR/NIES, CGCM2, CSIRO-Mk2, and HadCM3) under three emissions scenarios (A2, B2, and GGa). Compared with the present climate, overall t-tests (n = 12) show that it is almost certain that mean precipitation will decline by some 6% (>98.5% probability), daily precipitation variance increase by 12% (>99%), and maximum and minimum temperature increase by 1.46 and 1.26 °C (>99%), respectively. Compared with the present climate under the same tillage systems, it is very likely (>90%) that evapotranpiration and long-term soil water storage will decease, but runoff and soil loss will increase despite the projected declines in precipitation. There will be no significant changes in wheat grain yield.Paired t-tests show that daily precipitation variance projected under GGa is greater than those under A2 and B2 (P = 0.1), resulting in greater runoff and soil loss under GGa (P = 0.1). HadCM3 projected greater mean annual precipitation than CGCM2 and CSIRO (P = 0.1). Consequently, greater runoff, grain yield, transpiration, soil evaporation, and soil water storage were simulated for HadCM3 (P = 0.1). The inconsistency among GCMs and differential impact responses between emission scenarios underscore the necessity of using multi-GCMs and multi-emission scenarios for impact assessments. Overall results show that no-till and conservation tillage systems will need to be adopted for better soil and water conservation and environmental protection in the region during the next several decades.     

我国棉花进口依赖性对新疆棉花产业发展的影响

中国是世界上最大的棉花生产国,也是最大的棉花进口国与消费国。该文通过种植棉花面积及产量时空变化,棉花进口依赖性和棉花进口来源国等方面的数据进行分析,在此基础上进一步探讨棉花需求量与进口量及缺口量之间的变量对新疆棉花产业发展的影响,最终提出新疆棉花产业健康发展的若干对策建议。     

Re-think urban drainage following a SuDS retrofitting approach against urban flooding: A modelling investigation for an Italian case study

In the last decades, urban sprawl and soil sealing led to an increase of urban flooding phenomena. Sustainable Drainage Systems (SuDS) seem able to weaken stormwater-related criticalities, enhancing sustainability and city resilience.Relying on a detailed and feasible preparatory study of SuDS feasible retrofit design, based on a punctual identification of the areas suitable for retrofitting and the most appropriate combination of SuDS technologies, the reported research aimed to assess the effectiveness of a sustainable drainage approach in Sesto Ulteriano (Italy), an urban catchment suffering from stormwater management concerns. In particular, using the approach of a typical scenario analysis, this comparative modeling analysis involved SWMM5 for the assessment of the differences in the catchment hydrological behaviour between the mentioned specific and feasible SuDS retrofitting scenarios and a potential one, where non-specificity is considered for SuDS retrofitting location. Besides, the analyses focused on investigating how rainfall severity, areal extension and land use typical feature could influence the effectiveness of the sustainable redevelopment of the urban area.Results indicate that SuDS projects based on potential designs, which does not account for the feasible suds location, might result in a significant overestimation of the hydrological benefit. They showed, indeed, an improved hydrological performance, with average total volume reductions of the Combined Sewer Overflows up to over 70 % (retrofitting the 8.3 % of the catchment area), that is about 40 % higher than those obtained under the same areal extension by the feasible scenarios. Moreover, it was found that there could be an optimal SuDS retrofitting percentage above which additional hydrological benefits are undetectable. Land use, resulting in the variability in the degree of imperviousness necessarily associated to a variability in the retrofitting potential, also seemed to affect SuDS hydrological performance and for this reason should be included in an overall assessment. SuDS also proved to act successfully on the actual maximum percentage of nodes of the drainage network above a 0.7 filling degree threshold (about 52 % under 10-year return period rainfall) reducing it to 24 % with a feasible retrofitting involving the 8.3 % of the study area.     

农户种植业结构调整的意愿及其影响因素分析——以环北京地区为例

通过对环北京地区140 km圈层以内(北京10个区县,河北25个县)50个村的490个农户进行随机调查分析,研究了该地区近年来农户种植业结构调整的意愿及其影响因素。结果表明,随着城市居民食品消费需求的变化,环北京地区农户种植业结构已经发生了相应的变化,选择种植蔬菜、水果和干果等高产值作物的农户越来越多。基于我国落后分散的小农经济基本国情和日益发达的交通运输条件,地理区位因素对农户种植业结构调整的影响逐渐减弱,而农户富裕程度、劳动力机会成本和国家相关政策在新的历史时期成为影响我国农户种植业结构调整选择的重要因素。     

On-farm impacts of zero tillage wheat in South Asia's rice–wheat systems

The recent slow down in productivity growth in the irrigated areas of the Indo-Gangetic Plains of South Asia has led to a quest for resource-conserving technologies that can reduce production costs, save water and improve production. Findings from farm surveys are used to evaluate the on-farm impacts of zero tillage (ZT) wheat in the rice–wheat systems of India's Haryana state and Pakistan's Punjab province. ZT-induced effects primarily apply to the establishment and production costs of the wheat crop. Both study sites confirmed significant ZT-induced resource-saving effects in farmers’ fields in terms of diesel, tractor time and cost savings for wheat cultivation. Water savings are, however, less pronounced than expected from on-farm trial data. It was only in Haryana, India that there were significant ZT-induced water savings in addition to significant yield enhancement. The higher yield and water savings in Haryana, India result in significantly higher water productivity indicators for ZT wheat. In both sites, there are limited implications for the overall wheat crop management, the subsequent rice crop and the rice–wheat system as a whole. The combination of a significant “yield effect” and “cost-saving effect” makes adoption worthwhile and provide a much needed boost to the returns to wheat cultivation in Haryana, India. In Punjab, Pakistan, ZT is primarily a cost-saving technology for wheat cultivation. The prime driver for ZT adoption is not water savings or natural resource conservation but monetary gain in both sites. Water savings are only a potential added benefit.     

Prospects for Reduced Impact Logging in Central African logging concessions

Reduced Impact Logging (RIL) has traditionally been described as a set of forest management practices that reduce logging impacts and improve productivity. In this paper, we review the evolution of the logging sector in the Congo basin since the early 20th century. We argue that logging in the Congo basin has been little influenced by RIL until the recent regional Forestry Law reforms that started in Cameroon in 1994. RIL has not been integrated into the logging sector of the region as an independent body of knowledge, but more as a complement of the new mandatory management plans. In spite of its proven environmental and economic advantages, the role of RIL in improving forest management has been poorly understood, and we identify some causes of this situation. Finally, based on a regional study of 30 concessions, we analyse the frequency of some RIL-related practices and their relation with markets and certification schemes. We conclude that a clear definition of what RIL techniques are embraced by the logging sector is needed if RIL is to fully benefit from the recent development of new market and logging schemes based on certification, improved logging efficiency and a more transparent chain of custody.     

土地规划环境影响评价与建设项目环境影响评价的比较

结合国内外环境影响评价研究状况,对土地规划的环境影响评价(LUPEIA)和单个建设项目的环境影响评价(SEA)进行了较为全面的比较,指出了土地规划的环境影响评价与项目环境影响评价的异同,分析了项目环境影响评价对土地规划的环境影响评价的借鉴意义,为进一步开展土地规划的环境影响评价工作提供思路.     

气候变化对河南省主要农作物生育期的影响

利用河南省7个农业气象观测站1981-2004年冬小麦、夏玉米的生育期观测资料和同期的气象资料,分析了这两种作物主要生育期的变化趋势及对气候变化的响应。结果表明:河南省冬小麦自返青到成熟的各生育期均表现出提前的趋势,其中以拔节期提前最明显;冬小麦全生育期缩短,存在1.3d/10a的总减少趋势;相关分析显示导致冬小麦生育期提前的主要原因是2-5月平均气温的上升和3月日照时数的增加。夏玉米所有生育期都表现出延迟的趋势,以成熟期延迟程度最大;夏玉米全生育期天数呈现出显著增加的趋势,增加速率为2.1d/10a;6-9月总降水量减少是造成夏玉米生育期延迟的主要原因。     

1991-2020年西藏春小麦生育期对气候变化的响应

为了解西藏春小麦物候期变化及其与气候变化的关系,利用1991-2020年西藏日喀则农业气象观测站观测的春小麦生育期和气象资料,采用线性回归、相关系数、Mann-Kendall等方法,分析了西藏春小麦生育期变化特征,并讨论了影响其变化的主导气象因子。结果表明,在1991-2020年期间,西藏春小麦生长季内降水量（Pr）、相对湿度（RH）和日照时数（S）表现为下降趋势,平均最低气温（T_min）升温率明显大于平均最高气温（T_max）升温率,平均气温（T_m）、≥0 ℃积温（∑T₀）和平均风速（Ws）均呈增加趋势。营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期的热量资源（T_m、T_max、T_min、∑T₀）和Ws都表现为增加趋势,S与RH趋于减少;Pr在营养生长期增多,在生殖生长期减少,在全生育期略有增加。春小麦所有生育时期都表现为推迟趋势,平均每10年推迟2.33～13.36 d,以乳熟期推迟最明显;播种-出苗、拔节-孕穗2个生育阶段天数对气候变化响应不明显,开花-乳熟期天数以11.03 d·10 a^-1的速度显著延长,其他生育阶段天数均呈减少趋势;营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数均呈减少趋势。除开花期外,其他生育时期都发生了推迟的气候突变,突变时间主要出现在21世纪前10年的中后期;只有三叶-分蘖、分蘖-拔节、开花-乳熟、乳熟-成熟4个生育阶段天数在21世纪初出现了气候突变。影响春小麦营养生长期、全生育期天数的主导因子是T_m,次要因子为∑T₀,而∑T₀却是影响生殖生长期天数的主导因子,T_m为次要因子。近30年西藏春小麦营养生长期、生殖生长期以及全生育期天数减少,主要是因为T_m显著升高造成的。