我国畜牧业碳排放时空特征与趋势预测

为了探讨全国畜牧业碳排放的时空特征并预测到2060年的碳排放趋势,本研究利用排放因子法对全国2001—2017年畜牧业碳排放进行估算,并根据中国膳食协会所制定的膳食指标的食肉量进行预测。结果表明:2001—2017年全国畜牧业CO₂e排放量整体呈现出升高-降低-回升-降低的趋势,并在2005年达到畜牧业碳排放峰值,估算为4.86亿t。在碳排放源中,畜禽胃肠道发酵的碳排放量占比高于畜禽粪便管理系统,并且在主要畜禽种类中非奶牛养殖过程中的碳排放量要高于其他的畜禽种类。在空间分布上,中南和西南地区的碳排放量相较于我国其他地区更高。根据膳食指标规定的健康食肉量标准进行调整,对于碳减排有着显著的积极影响,在未来40年内可减少畜牧业碳排放量的25%～75%。研究表明,在2001—2017年间全国畜牧业已在2005年实现碳达峰,在未来膳食结构中肉类消费量改善的前提下,畜牧业碳排放量的持续降低有利于我国碳中和目标的实现。     

柴油机清洁含氧燃料及其研究新进展

综述了国内外低排放清洁含氧燃料的研究进展,介绍了醇类、醚类、醇醚类、酯类和醚酯类含氧燃料的新品种及排放性能。     

“双碳”目标下的农业碳问题研究进展及未来展望

减少农业碳排放,提高农业碳汇能力,是我国实现“双碳”目标的重要举措,也是潜力所在,故厘清农业碳问题的研究现状及其特征具有重要意义。为助力我国“双碳”目标早日实现,本文基于农业碳排放、农业碳汇以及农业低碳发展驱动因素3个维度对已有相关研究进行全面梳理：首先,明确了农业碳排放的基本概念并介绍了常见的测算方法,同时基于时序演变、空间分布、效率特征、减排路径等视角对其研究现状进行了回顾;其次,界定农业碳汇的基本概念,进而引申出森林碳汇、土壤碳汇和海洋碳汇并介绍各自的测算方法,而后则围绕农业净碳汇与碳汇市场化展开重点阐述;最后,从宏观和微观2个层面探讨影响农业低碳发展的主要因素,其中前者着眼于政策、经济、社会等方面,而后者则侧重于户主的内在因素和农户面临的外部环境。针对未来农业碳问题的研究方向,本文认为可重点围绕以下4个方面,即农业碳达峰的科学预测与差异化减排路径设计、农业减碳固碳潜力的科学评估与实现路径探讨、农业碳市场的构建与碳汇价值变现的思路探索以及农户低碳生产技术供需匹配探究与其制度优化。     

Greenhouse gas implications of replacing fish protein with beef in the lower Mekong Basin

At least 88 new hydropower dams are planned between 2010 and 2030 in the lower Mekong River basin in Southeast Asia as a source of electricity with lower greenhouse gas emissions. Dams result in declines in fish populations that will need to be replaced with other sources of protein for food security. We make the first assessment of emissions should beef production substitute for lost fish in Cambodia and Laos. We assessed two sources of emissions. Replacing lost fish with beef would require as much as 12 million hectares of new pasture. Forest clearing for pastures in Cambodia and Lao PDR would initially emit between 0.859 and 3.015 giga‐tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO₂‐eq.). Methane emissions from additional cattle would add at least 0.0013 Gt CO₂‐eq./year to Cambodia's total greenhouse gas emissions, equivalent to a 20% increase. In Laos at least 0.0005 Gt CO₂‐eq./year would be released, a 4–12% increase in annual emissions. We demonstrate that activities displaced by hydropower developments could significantly increase emissions. It shows how enclosure of commons at local scales impacts upon other common pool resources at different scales, raising questions for sustainable and equitable transboundary governance.     

Nitrous oxide emissions from grass–clover swards as influenced by sward age and biological nitrogen fixation

Grassland renovation by cultivation and reseeding has been shown to increase short-term emissions of N₂O, but there is uncertainty about long-term effects, despite the potential impacts of reseeding on sward composition and soil functions. A field experiment was therefore carried out to determine how N₂O emissions from previously renovated grasslands varied in the intermediate to long-term, compared with an undisturbed permanent grassland (PG). Plots on the PG site were renovated, either two (G2) or five (G5) years prior to the two experimental years. In each sward age and experimental year, annual N₂O-measurements were conducted on a weekly basis and compared with the undisturbed PG. Plots were either unfertilized or were fertilized with slurry (240 kg N ha⁻¹ year⁻¹). On average, annual N₂O emissions were 0.39 kg N/ha for the unfertilized swards, and 0.91 kg N/ha for slurry-fertilized swards. Sward age had no effect on N₂O emissions. With increasing sward age the proportion of legumes in the sward was reduced, but a minimum biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) of 88 kg N/ha was maintained even in the fertilized PG. Both sward age and BNF were of limited importance for the annual N₂O emissions compared with the effects of soil carbon content and nitrogen surplus levels. However, measured N₂O emissions were low in all sward age treatments, with a low risk of additional N₂O emissions when BNF is taken into account in fertilizer planning.     

Can climate change influence agricultural GTFP in arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China?

There are eight provinces and autonomous regions (Gansu Province, Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region, Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, Tibet Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Shanxi Province, and Shaanxi Province) in Northwest China, most areas of which are located in arid and semi-arid regions (northwest of the 400 mm precipitation line), accounting for 58.74% of the country's land area and sustaining approximately 7.84×10⁶ people. Because of drought conditions and fragile ecology, these regions cannot develop agriculture at the expense of the environment. Given the challenges of global warming, the green total factor productivity (GTFP), taking CO₂ emissions as an undesirable output, is an effective index for measuring the sustainability of agricultural development. Agricultural GTFP can be influenced by both internal production factors (labor force, machinery, land, agricultural plastic film, diesel, pesticide, and fertilizer) and external climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration). In this study, we used the Super-slacks-based measure (Super-SBM) model to measure agricultural GTFP during the period 2000-2016 at the regional level. Our results show that the average agricultural GTFP of most provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions underwent a fluctuating increase during the study period (2000-2016), and the fluctuation was caused by the production factors (input and output factors). To improve agricultural GTFP, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Gansu should reduce agricultural labor force input; Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Gansu, and Shanxi should decrease machinery input; Shaanxi, Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, and Shanxi should reduce fertilizer input; Shaanxi, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Ningxia should reduce diesel input; Xinjiang and Gansu should decrease plastic film input; and Gansu, Shanxi, and Inner Mongolia should cut pesticide input. Desirable output agricultural earnings should be increased in Qinghai and Tibet, and undesirable output (CO₂ emissions) should be reduced in Inner Mongolia, Xinjiang, Gansu, and Shaanxi. Agricultural GTFP is influenced not only by internal production factors but also by external climate factors. To determine the influence of climate factors on GTFP in these provinces and autonomous regions, we used a Geographical Detector (Geodetector) model to analyze the influence of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and sunshine duration) and identify the relationships between different climate factors and GTFP. We found that temperature played a significant role in the spatial heterogeneity of GTFP among provinces and autonomous regions in arid and semi-arid regions. For Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Tibet, a suitable average annual temperature would be in the range of 7°C-9°C; for Gansu, Shanxi, and Ningxia, it would be 11°C-13°C; and for Shaanxi, it would be 15°C-17°C. Stable climatic conditions and more efficient production are prerequisites for the development of sustainable agriculture. Hence, in the agricultural production process, reducing the redundancy of input factors is the best way to reduce CO₂ emissions and to maintain temperatures, thereby improving the agricultural GTFP. The significance of this study is that it explores the impact of both internal production factors and external climatic factors on the development of sustainable agriculture in arid and semi-arid regions, identifying an effective way forward for the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China.     

绿道规划植被NMHC排放与大气污染的响应关系研究

在环境大气中非甲烷总烃（NMHC）属于重要污染物,其成分结构较为复杂,种类较多,部分非甲烷总烃化合物具有致癌作用、刺激性和毒性,有时还会形成二次有机气溶胶和光化学烟雾,造成环境污染,严重威胁着生态环境和人体健康。研究绿道规划植被非甲烷总烃排放与大气污染间存在的响应关系具有重要意义。采用光合有效辐射和叶温等基本变量,计算绿道规划植被NMHC排放量,分析不同植被排放的NMHC成分构成,获取了光强和温度对植物排放NMHC速率产生的影响。采用最大增量活性因子法MIR和丙烯等效浓度（Prop-Equiv）研究绿道规划植被NMHC排放与臭氧生成潜势（OFP）之间的关系,进而获得NMHC排放与大气污染之间的响应关系。     

中国农业碳排放经验分解与峰值预测——基于动态政策情景视角

运用广义迪式指数分解(GDIM)考察了1985—2017年中国农业碳排放驱动因素,并根据因素贡献差异设置动态政策情景对2018—2030年的全国农业碳排放量进行模拟与预测。研究发现:财政支出规模是引致碳排放增长的首要因素,而财政支出强度与产出强度为促进碳排放减少的关键因素;从时间段来看,1985—2010年我国碳排放增长表现为“产值规模带动”到“生产支出带动”,2010年后呈现“政策规制效应”下的年际间交替增减变化态势;在动态情景预测中,政策规制情景和绿色低碳情景分别在2025和2020年达到峰值,高速发展情景和绿色低碳情景在2030年的碳排放总量相差近10亿t。由此可见,出台“奖补”与“规制”并行的政策手段、借助市场作用优化农业生产投入结构、提高农资消耗品使用率是促进低碳生产的长久之计。     

吉林省森林火灾释放碳量的时间变化规律

根据吉林省1969-2004年的森林火灾统计数据,计算出吉林省森林火灾年均释放碳22004.38～29339.17t,约占全国年均森林火灾排放碳的1.05%.用排放比法得出吉林省年平均森林火灾释放的CO2、CO、CH4量分别为72614.45～96819.27、5283.01～7044.02和1784.40～2379.20t.吉林省森林火灾碳和含碳气体释放最多的月份是9月,占总释放量的60.6%,其次为10、5和4月,分别占总释放量的16.1%、11.4%和9.8%.吉林省森林火灾碳和含碳气体释放最多的时间段是13:00-13:59,占总释放量的31.4%,其次是14:00-14:59、15:00-15:59和11:00-11:59,分别占总释放量的18.7%、16.4%和16.0%.     

浅谈燃油组分对汽车尾气排放的影响

在汽车新技术不断发展,排放法规日趋严格的情况下,燃油质量正成为制约汽车新技术、排放控制技术应用的重要因素。对不同燃油及其组分对汽车尾气排放的影响进行了分析,指出了各种燃油的未来发展方向,为燃油组分的优化提供一定的参考依据。