基于Mein-Larson入渗模型的降雨滑坡失稳破坏概率研究

[目的]评价降雨诱发浅层滑坡的失稳破坏概率,为相关研究提供理论依据。[方法]在引入并扩展了Mein-Larson降雨入渗模型的基础上,将Mein-Larson入渗模型与无限边坡稳定性方法有机结合,建立2种降雨情形(高强度短历时和低强度长历时)下降雨滑坡稳定性的确定性评价模型,然后再将蒙特卡洛数值模拟方法与降雨滑坡的确定性评价模型结合,建立降雨滑坡稳定性的概率评价方法。[结果]提出了1种降雨诱发浅层滑坡失稳的概率评价方法。[结论]概率评价方法可以描述降雨滑坡发生及发展过程中存在的不确定性,可以计算不同降雨情形下,不同降雨时刻降雨诱发边坡的失稳破坏概率。该方法的评价结果更符合边坡实际情况。     

Effect of codling moth exclusion nets on the rosy apple aphid, Dysaphis plantaginea, and its control by natural enemies

Exclusion nets aimed at controlling populations of the codling moth, Cydia pomonella are increasingly used in French apple orchards. The secondary effects of these so-called Alt’Carpo nets on other apple pests have not yet been thoroughly determined. This study was carried out to evaluate whether the presence of white nets (mesh size: 3 × 7.4 mm) affects the population dynamics of the rosy apple aphid (RAA), Dysaphis plantaginea and the abundance and composition of associated arthropod communities. We surveyed 50 infested shoots on a weekly basis throughout spring in 2008 and 2009 on apple trees with or without (control) nets in one insecticide-free orchard located in south-eastern France. At three dates in 2009, the RAA infestation rate was also computed by counting the total number of infested shoots per tree. The nets were installed at three different dates during the RAA lifecycle: September (September Netting Plot (SNP)), March (March Netting Plot (MNP)) and mid-April (April Netting Plot (ANP)). The abundance of RAA in the uncovered plot in 2008 was 1.75-fold higher than in the ANP. In 2009, this abundance was 1.39-fold higher than in the ANP and MNP, and slightly lower than in the SNP (1.07-fold). The nets (MNP and SNP) decreased the number of RAA colonies present in early spring. Interestingly, the nets reduced the duration of RAA infestation by 7–10 days. The highest reduction in RAA abundance and infestation rate was observed when nets were closed during the RAA development phase (ANP). The nets significantly reduced the abundance of ants on the marked shoots, especially in the ANP compared to the control. In addition, this study showed that nets have a significant negative influence on the abundance and richness of RAA-natural enemies. There was a significant decrease in the abundance of predators but no effect on the abundance of parasitoids. Syrphidae, Forficulidae and Coccinellidae were the most abundant natural enemy groups in the uncovered plot. Netting the plots led to a pronounced decrease in Coccinellidae abundance, a slight but significant decreased in Syrphids and had no effect on earwigs. Overall, Alt’Carpo exclusion nets had a direct negative impact on RAA population dynamics especially in the presence of at least one active natural enemy per marked shoot. These promising findings suggest that the combination of physical and biological control methods has potential for regulating RAA populations in organic orchards.     

模糊证据权法在夏橙产区土地适宜性评价中的应用

为解决土地适宜性评价中因子权重选取的主观性和随意性问题,以夏橙产区为例,引入模糊证据权法.评价结果显示:85％的已知适宜点处于修正后验概率分级图的中等适宜级别以上,表明集数据驱动和知识驱动为一体的模糊证据权法与修正后验概率模型结合可以客观、准确地对土地进行适宜性评价.     

Landslide densities associated with rainfall,stand age,and topography on forested landscapes,southwestern Washington,USA

Elevated landslide rates in forested landscapes can adversely impact aquatic habitat and water quality and remove and/or degrade soil resources required for forest regeneration. As a result, understanding the associations between management actions, natural factors, and landslide rates is important information needed for land managers. An unusual and powerful storm in early December, 2007, caused record flooding and thousands of landslides across southwest Washington and northwest Oregon, USA, and provided a rare opportunity to examine the effects of both natural factors and forest management practices on landslide density. Landslide inventory data were collected from both aerial photos and systematic field surveys to provide a broad survey database that was used to develop estimates of landslide density and to examine associations between landslide density, precipitation, topography, and forest stand age across a 152,000 ha forested landscape in the Willapa Hills, Washington. We estimated the probability of detecting landslides on aerial photos for six strata defined by forest stand age and a broad range of rainfall intensity, expressed as percent of the 100-year, 24-h, maximum rainfall. Key findings are that landslide detection probability decreased with increasing stand age, but was similar across rainfall intensities. The overall fraction of field-detected landslides that were not detected on 1:12,000-scale aerial photos was 39%. Very few landslides occurred in the 0–100% of 100-year rainfall category, regardless of stand age or slope gradient class. At higher rainfall intensities, significantly higher landslide densities occurred on steep slopes (>70% gradient) compared to lower gradient slopes, as expected. Above ∼150% of 100-year rainfall, the density of landslides was ∼2–3 times larger in the 0–5 and 6–10 year stand age categories than in the 11–20, 21–30, 31–40, and 41+ categories. The effect of stand age was strongest at the highest rainfall intensities. Our results demonstrate that ground-based landslide inventory data are required in order to correct for detection bias from aerial photos, develop reasonable estimates of landslide density across environmental gradients such as rainfall magnitude and topography, and make unbiased interpretations of relationships between forest management associations and landslide occurrence.     

基于FSVM的周宁县地质灾害易发性评价研究

在分析影响地质灾害活动因素的基础上,构建了地质灾害易发性评价指标体系,介绍了隶属函数的建立方法及模糊支持向量机(FSVM)模型的建立过程,最后运用该模型对周宁县地质灾害易发性程度进行评价,把周宁县地质灾害易发性程度划分为地质灾害高易发区、中易发区、低易发区和不易发区四个级别,结果表明该方法可行,具有较强的实用性。     

重庆地区引种观赏百合多性状综合评价研究

在重庆地区特定气候条件下对18个荷兰进口观赏百合的营养生长情况、花期性状和籽球更新能力进行检测,并采用模糊概率法对各项性状指标进行综合评价分析.结果表明:(1)不同品系进口百合在重庆地区的综合表现具有一定差异,铁炮/亚洲杂交系优于亚洲杂交系,东方杂交系品种长势较弱;(2)同一品系百合不同品种的综合表现也不一致,亚洲杂交系的里诺、黑人蒙特,铁炮/亚洲杂交系的布林迪西、红芯、卡凡雷斯、佩维亚、信使、赛雷达等品种引种到重庆地区的植株营养生长量、花期性状及种球更新能力较强,综合性状较优;(3)18个引进百合品种的优劣顺序为:布林迪西,里诺,红芯,卡凡雷斯,佩维亚,信使,黑人蒙特,赛雷达,布鲁内罗,沃米尔,穿梭,普瑞头,棒棒糖,隆巴蒂,西伯利亚,索蚌,科瓦拉,伯尼尼.     

基于时间序列影像的中观尺度农作物长势监测采样方法

地面采样调查是遥感应用中一个重要的手段。采样点的空间位置和数量决定了监测点的代表性,并受到监测成本限制。高效和经济地设计采样方案是推进地面采样数据更好地服务于遥感应用的重要问题。该文以遥感在农业方面的应用为切入点,在对现有农作物监测现状研究的基础上,通过对时间序列的遥感影像进行农作物长势分布的分析,运用概率比例规模抽样(PPS)的思想提取采样点。通过对2007的农作物长势分布区进行农情参数监测点采样,并与2009年的农作物长势分布对比,发现采样点达到较好的一致性。基本满足中观尺度农作物长势监测中采样点具有代表性、典型性和稳定性的要求。     

基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估不确定性研究

基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估中,采用状态持续时间抽样,各元件的状态时间段是随机产生的,属于不确定性问题。求解不确定性问题的可靠性指标的收敛判据不同于常规数值迭代算法,需要运用概率知识描述。针对配电系统的随机时序模拟问题,研究了独立事件的选取,提出了以随机初始种子,相同循环次数作为广义独立事件;分析了在给定置信概率下总体均值的置信区间,其置信区间长度与样本均值的绝对误差有关,从而得出置信区间长度与给定计算精度的不等关系式,提出了以绝对误差作为计算精度的实用收敛判据。通过对RTBS测试系统的分析验证了该方法的合理性与有效性。     

土壤颗粒分布的单多重分形及联合多重分形分析

It is noted that there has been little research to compare volume-based and number-based soil particle size distributions(PSDs).Our objectives were to characterize the scaling properties and the possible connections between volume-based and number-based PSDs by applying single and joint multifractal analysis.Twelve soil samples were taken from selected sites in Northwest China and their PSDs were analyzed using laser diffractometry.The results indicated that the volume-based PSDs of all 12 samples and the number-based PSDs of 4 samples had multifractal scalings for moment order -6 < q < 6.Some empirical relationships were identified between the extreme probability values,maximum probability(P max),minimum probability(P min),and P max /P min,and the multifractal indices,the difference and the ratio of generalized dimensions at q = 0 and 1(D 0 - D 1 and D 1 /D 0),maximum and minimum singularity strength(α max and α min) and their difference(α max - α min,spectrum width),and asymmetric index(R D).An increase in P max generally resulted in corresponding increases of D 0 -D 1,α max,α max -α min,and R D,which indicated that a large P max increased the multifractality of a distribution.Joint multifractal analysis showed that there was significant correlation between the scaling indices of volume-based and number-based PSDs.The multifractality indices indicated that for a given soil,the volume-based PSD was more homogeneous than the number-based PSD,and more likely to display monofractal rather than multifractal scaling.     

基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估收敛判据

基于时序模拟的配电系统可靠性评估中,由于抽样的随机性导致求解结果的不确定性,为此,求解过程需要运用概率知识描述,可靠性指标的收敛判据也不同于常规数值迭代算法.针对配电系统的时序模拟的不确定性问题,研究了独立事件的选取,构造了独立广义事件;分析了在给定置信概率下总体均值的置信区间,得出置信区间长度与样本均值的绝对误差相关的结论,进而提出了用绝对误差描述的实用收敛判据,并且给出该置信概率下置信区间长度与给定计算精度的不等关系式.通过对RTBS测试系统的实例分析,验证了该方法的合理性与有效性.