Predicting the Dairy Cow Somatic Cell Number of Ningxia Area Based on ARIMA Model

Through dairy herd improvement (DHI) data analysis to predict somatic cell count (SCC) of Ningxia area in time, which providing a reference for the prevention and treatment of mastitis in dairy cows, making the DHI data more effective and timely in guiding the dairy industry production. Using the difference method to make the average cow somatic cell data form September 2011 to February 2016 stabled, then used the seasonal ARIMA model to analysis, fitting and forecasting data. The auto.arima function of R software had been used to calculate the optimal time series that finally confirmed the model was ARIMA (1,1,0)(1,1,0)_[12], AIC was -3.67. The Acf test showed that the residual had no significant autocorrelation; Ljung-Box test showed that all P-value>0.5, indicating that the residual was white noise, and this model could be used to make predication for the next 24 months. The forecast function of the R software was used to predict the dairy cows SCC from March 2016 to February 2017, and the forecast map was drawn. The predicted results showed that the SCC of the entire Ningxia area were showing a downward trend. The SCC would be the least in January 2017,and the predictive value was about 253 100 per mL. It would be the largest in March 2016, was about 439 600 per mL. The results also showed that the dairy cows SCC in Ningxia was higher than the critical value of 20 million of subclinical mastitis. It suggested that the prevention and treatment of dairy cow mastitis need to be strengthened in Ningxia area. At the same time, if the data of the dairy cows SCC was added in timely, the data model should be updated to make it more close to the true value, which would be more meaningful to the actual instruction.     

草原畜牧业产业链利益联结机制影响因素研究

在草原畜牧业产业链的建设过程中,构建稳定、和谐、有效的产业链利益联结机制,是产业链有效运行的必要前提和重要支撑。基于此,对新疆、内蒙古、青海及甘肃的四大典型草原牧区利益联结主体牧户、合作社和龙头企业进行了实地问卷调查,运用结构方程模型对其产业链利益联结机制的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,行为表现、畜产品物流特征和合作意愿对产业链利益联结机制有显著的正向影响;经营状况并不能直接影响其产业链的利益联结,而是通过其他3条路径间接影响产业链的利益联结机制;主体的行为表现可以直接和间接影响彼此间的利益联结,畜产品物流特征对于彼此间合作意愿影响是微乎其微的;产业链主体的发展状况、契约关系、分销渠道以及合作预期的认知分别是经营状况、行为表现、畜产品物流特征和合作意愿中对利益联结机制影响最为显著的因素。     

Two anatomic resources of canine pelvic limb muscles based on CT and MRI

Advances in magnetic resonance (MR) imaging and three-dimensional (3D) modeling software provide the tools necessary to create sophisticated, interactive anatomic resources that can assist in the interpretation of MR images of extremities, and learning the structure and function of limb musculature. Modeling provides advantages over dissection or consultation of print atlases because of the associated speed, flexibility, 3D nature, and elimination of superimposed arrows and labels. Our goals were to create a diagnostic atlas of pelvic limb muscles that will facilitate interpretation of MR images of patients with muscle injury and to create a 3D model of the canine pelvic limb musculature to facilitate anatomic learning. To create these resources, we used structural segmentation of MR images, a process that groups image pixels into anatomically meaningful regions. The Diagnostic Atlas is an interactive, multiplanar, web-based MR atlas of the canine pelvic limb musculature that was created by manually segmenting clinically analogous MR sequences. Higher resolution volumetric MR and computed tomography (CT) data were segmented into separately labeled volumes of data and then transformed into a multilayered 3D computer model. The 3D Model serves as a resource for students of gross anatomy, encouraging integrative learning with its highly interactive and selective display capabilities. For clinicians, the 3D Model also serves to bridge the gap between topographic and tomographic anatomy, displaying both formats alongside, or even superimposed over each other. Both projects are hosted on an open-access website, http://3dvetanatomy.ncsu.edu/     

泌乳期中国荷斯坦牛转化孕酮浓度的影响因素分析及其表型预测

【目的】本研究基于试验测定的中国荷斯坦牛血液和乳汁中的孕酮浓度表型,探究了影响中国荷斯坦牛体内孕酮分泌的环境因素、孕酮浓度的变化趋势、孕酮浓度与乳成分的关联程度以及血乳中孕酮浓度的预测方法。【方法】试验于2021年8月在北京、山东两个牧场采集不同胎次、泌乳阶段和妊娠状态的中国荷斯坦泌乳牛的奶样、尾根血样,测定孕酮浓度,最终获得402条乳汁孕酮浓度和298条血液孕酮浓度表型用于数据分析。对孕酮浓度进行数据转化使其近似服从正态分布后,采用固定效应模型探究胎次、泌乳阶段、妊娠状态、牧场等固定效应对奶牛孕酮表型的影响,运用R语言cor函数计算孕酮与各乳成分间的关联,并利用偏最小二乘法和个体及乳成分信息对孕酮浓度进行预测,以建立孕酮浓度表型高通量获取手段。【结果】妊娠状态对转化乳汁孕酮浓度存在极显著影响（P<0.01）,胎次、场效应对转化乳汁孕酮浓度均有显著影响（P<0.05）,而转化血液孕酮浓度只受到妊娠状态影响（P<0.01）;全乳固体、乳脂率、乳蛋白率、脂蛋比与转化乳血孕酮浓度均存在显著或极显著的正相关关系（r=0.14~0.37,P<0.05;P<0.01）;基于本试验数据,乳成分与个体信息对转化乳血孕酮浓度的预测准确性不高（R²=0.030~0.17）,但如果增加血液或乳汁的转化孕酮浓度对乳汁或血液的转化孕酮浓度进行预测,预测效果则有大幅提升（R²=0.40）。【结论】影响泌乳期中国荷斯坦牛转化孕酮浓度的因素除妊娠状态外,可能还包括饲养条件与胎次。此外转化孕酮浓度与乳脂率、乳蛋白率等乳成分呈极显著相关。基于乳成分信息与转化孕酮的关系,获得了对中国荷斯坦牛乳血转化孕酮浓度预测的可用策略,为今后牧场的繁殖辅助管理、奶牛育种新性状研发以及孕酮浓度的高通量获取等提供了新思路。     

1+X 证书制度下宠物养护与驯导专业育人模式探析

在1+X证书制度下,以宠物养护与驯导专业为试点,积极探索和实践现代职业教育“产教融合、校企合作、工学结合、知行合一”的人才培养模式,以期提高本专业的育人质量。     

西双版纳紫茎泽兰生物量收获的样方选择与模型

草地植被生物量与碳储量是陆地碳固存的重要组成部分,加强草地植被生物量研究可以提高区域植被碳储量估算的精度。在综合考虑时间和劳力消耗的基础上,研究了在控制误差内测定紫茎泽兰(Eupato-rium adenophorum)生物量时应选择的最佳样方大小和数量,并通过最佳自变量拟合了估算紫茎泽兰生物量的预测方程。结果表明:1)紫茎泽兰生物量收获的最佳取样面积为2.00 m2,最佳样方选择数目为15个;2)回归方程所选取的3个自变量基径的平方与高度的积(D2H)、冠幅与高度的乘积(CH)和盖度与高度的乘积(PH)中,CH与生物量的相关性和以CH为自变量的线性回归方程的拟合度优于其他2个自变量。     

茧壳水煎剂对四氧嘧啶糖尿病模型小鼠的降血糖作用

用不同剂量的茧壳水煎剂分别对正常小鼠和四氧嘧啶糖尿病模型小鼠进行了降血糖作用研究。结果显示 :干茧壳剂量为 1 6、3 2g/kg·d的茧壳水煎剂对正常小鼠连续灌胃 2 0d ,其血糖水平没有明显变化 ;用干茧壳剂量为 1 6g/kg·d的茧壳水煎剂对四氧嘧啶糖尿病模型小鼠连续灌胃 2 0d ,或用干茧壳剂量为 3 2g/kg·d的茧壳水煎剂对四氧嘧啶糖尿病模型小鼠连续灌胃 10d ,其血糖没有显著降低 ;而干茧壳剂量为 3 2g/kg·d的茧壳水煎剂对四氧嘧啶糖尿病模型小鼠连续灌胃 14、2 0d ,有显著的降血糖作用 ,但是若不继续灌胃给药 ,则 7d后 ,这种降血糖作用又丧失。该研究结果为利用蚕茧治疗糖尿病提供了药理学方面的依据     

高寒地区多年生禾草混播草地种间竞争效应分析

从高寒地区3组分禾草混播草地群落的种问竞争机制出发,建立了适合高寒地区3组分禾草混播草地群落种间竞争机制的Lotka—Volterra竞争效应模型,并对该模型所描述的竞争进行了计算机模拟试验。模拟结果表明,试验所选的3种高寒地区3组分禾草混播草群的种间相容性分为两种类型,即不稳定的群落：多叶老芒麦 无芒雀麦 垂穗披碱草和垂穗披碱草 多叶老芒麦 扁穗冰草,其竞争结局是：群落内多叶老芒麦和垂穗披碱草二者共同表现为优势种群,无芒雀麦或扁穗冰草与优势植物的竞争结果将导致其从群落中消失,多叶老芒麦和垂穗披碱草种群将能稳定共存;不稳定-稳定过渡群落：无芒雀麦 多叶老芒麦 扁穗冰草,在没有多叶老芒麦种群的时候,无芒雀麦和扁穗冰草种群可以共存,但是如果多叶老芒麦种群加入无芒雀麦和扁穗冰草所占的区域,它将导致无芒雀麦和扁穗冰草种群趋于灭绝。通过对3个混播试验组计算机模拟竞争模型的竞争效应分析,其结果与方法对科学建植同类型的多年生混播人工草地具有一定的指导意义。     

中国奶牛养殖模式及效益分析

中国奶牛养殖正由数量增长向质量增长方式转变,目前我国奶牛养殖仍以奶牛饲养小区为主体（集中饲养地、集中挤奶、统一防疫、分户管理、分户结算）,奶牛养殖小区农户养殖的奶牛总数占全国总存栏的70％以上,这对我国奶牛养殖业发展产生巨大影响,暴露出很多问题,必须向现代养殖模式转型,转型的主要方向是适度规模的家庭式奶牛场或股份合作制奶牛场,与其他大中型奶牛场一起成为我国现代奶牛场养殖组织模式,用5年时间使我国成乳牛胎泌乳量达到7 000 kg/头,实现奶牛养殖业发展以质量型发展为主,通过奶牛养殖模式转型促进我国奶牛养殖业可持续健康发展.