ANN在森林资源预测中的应用研究

人工神经网络(ANN)方法是基于实例的方法,不需要考虑数学模型的内部结构,不需要假设前提条件,不需要人为地确定因子权重,作为一个黑箱综合地映射研究对象的整体性。应用人工神经网络多步预测方法对甘肃连城林场吐鲁沟营林区有林地面积进行预测,网络模型的最大相对误差为0 080 8％,最小相对误差达到0 0089％,平均为0.038 6％,表明预测值与实际值吻合程度很好,因此模型的精度较高,并且建模简单经预测,林场2000-2004年有林地面积稍有下降趋势,分别为2 873.2 hm2,2 618 7 hm2,2 484.5 hm2,2 346 hm2,2 171 6hm2。     

基于遗忘因子和误差修正的水文实

在进行水文预报时，由于影响河道洪水的因素众多，常用的水文预报模型往往不符合实际水文系统的客观规律。对这类系统的参数辨识要求算法具有较强的实时跟踪能力，以适应模拟或预测洪水运动变化过程的要求。利用洪水预报误差信息，对BP网络洪水实时预报校正模型与方法进行了探讨，提出了两种实时预报方法。第一：运用最小二乘递推算法，引入时变遗忘因子实时跟踪模型中时变参数的变化，建立了神经网络在非线性系统中动态的系统输入、输出数据之间的映射关系。第二：利用BP网络模型对误差的可识别性，将模型对输出变量的预报误差再次作为输出变量，对网络可能预报的误差进行实时修正。计算实例表明：以上两种方法提高了神经网络在水文领域的预报精度，给BP神经网络的实时预报方法提供了新的途径。     

基于径流分类的日径流量预测神经网络模型

利用聚类分析法将径流序列分解为若干个子径流序列 ,对这些子径流序列分别建立局部神经网络模型 ,而后把这些局部模型合并成一个混合模型。当新的信息进入该模型时 ,首先用分类器判别其类别 ,以确定用混合模型中的何种局部模型加以模拟。通过与不加分类的总体神经网络模型的模拟结果加以对比 ,结果表明这种基于径流分类的降雨 -径流模型表现出了更优良的性能 ,可以较大地提高径流模拟精度。     

引入因素分析法的神经网络在洪水

因素分析法是一种多元统计法，可以通过线性变换，将原有数据转换成彼此不相关且维数较少的数据，本文将因素分析法引入洪水预报神经网络的输入单元精简过程，详细介绍了建模和神经网络训练过程中包括STA训练控制在内的一些关键技术问题，并通过实例评价了此应用方法的效果，通过分析，表明此方法可以在不损失或较小损失的前提下方便有效的对洪水预报神经网络结构进行精简，大大缩减了神经网络的规模，提高了效率，具有很高的实用价值。     

基于ANN的轴流脱粒与分离装置性能指标预测

影响水稻轴流脱粒与分离装置性能指标的因素很多,并且它们之间存在着复杂的非线性关系,用传统方法很难对其进行准确预测。神经网络算法简单、学习收敛速度快、具有线性、非线性逼近精度高等特性。本文以正交旋转组合实验获得的数据作为样本,对人工神经网络(ANN)模型进行训练学习,利用训练后所得到的模型,对性能指标进行了预测。结果表明,网络预测值与实测值之间具有很高的相关性和精确度,为机械性能指标研究提供了一定的理论辅助手段。     

Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

基于数字孪生技术的平面渔网破损检测方法研究

为防止渔网破损造成养殖鱼类逃逸,有必要对网衣进行破损检测。为了克服人工检测劳动强度大且效率低下的缺点,实现渔网的精准实时监测,本研究提出了一种基于数字孪生的网衣破损检测方法,可利用传感器代替人工监测。该方法首先从渔网的数值仿真模型获取大量的仿真传感数据,然后将数据用于人工神经网络的训练与测试,最后生成可进行网衣破损识别的数字孪生体。数字孪生体可根据传感器监测到的数据来判断网衣是否发生破损。在数值模拟中,考虑各种波浪条件以及网衣的破损情况。在训练人工神经网络中,将有效波高Hs、谱峰周期Tp以及横纲竖纲的拉力值作为输入变量,将网衣完整状态以及破损状态作为输出。经过测试分析,该识别模型根据传感器数据识别网衣是否破损的平均准确率为94.32%,由此可见,数字孪生技术能准确检测到渔网的损坏,可以作为网衣破损检测的一种新方法。     

Signal Processing of Electroencephalogram and It''s Application

Electroencephalogram (EEG) signals are the electrical activities in the cortex or on the surface of scalp caused by the physiological activities of the brain which play a key role in the diagnosis of brain and the functional determination of brain. The authors discuss some methods for processing EEG signals from the view of the frequency domain and time domain, especially introduce some time-frequency analysis methods such as Wigner distribution, wavelet transform and matching pursuit etc. , ANN and non-linear analysis for EEG signals processing.     

人工神经网络与近红外光谱分析

介绍了人工神经网络的原理、结构、算法和研究进展,以及该方法在近红外光谱分析中的重要地位和应用。     

基于人工神经网络的组合预测及应用

综合组合预测和人工神经网络的特点，提出一种将人工神经网络应用于组合预测的新方法，并以浙江省猪肉产量预测为实例进行了论证。