Prediction of irrigation return flows through a hierarchical modeling approach

The quantity of water available for irrigation is getting scarce in many countries and it assumes great importance for assured crop production, especially in view of the erratic behavior of the monsoon. Thus, there is a pressing need to improve the water efficiency of irrigation systems. One-way of improving the efficiency of the irrigation system is reusing the return flow from the irrigation system. This task requires quantification of return flow, which still remains as a grey area in irrigation water management. The estimation of return flow from the irrigation system is usually obtained using thumb rules depending upon the site-specific conditions like command area conditions and soil properties. In this paper, a hierarchical modeling technique, namely, regression tree is developed for return flow estimation. Regression tree is built through binary recursive partitioning. The effective rainfall, inflow, consumptive water demand, and percolation loss are taken as predictor variables and return flow is treated as the target variable. The applicability of the hierarchical model is demonstrated through a case study of Periyar-Vaigai Irrigation System in Tamil Nadu, India. The model performance shows a good match between the simulated and the field measured return flow values. Results of statistical analysis indicated that the correlation coefficients are high for both single as well as double crop seasons.     

ArcGIS Server支持下农产品质量安全追溯模型的实现

近年来农产品质量安全事件频繁发生,利用农产品质量安全追溯信息进行质量安全应急管理已成为处理农产品质量安全事件的重要手段,但是这些信息仅能以文本表格的形式表现出来,在地图服务端存在一定的限制。模型借助于ArcGISServer,把传统的质量安全追溯与GIS功能相结合,实现追溯信息在地理空间中的形象化展示,并可对地图服务任意进行配置。该模型不仅能够图形化地模拟出农产品在不同主体之间的流通路径,而且能在发生农产品质量安全事件时快速定位到责任主体。     

大型渡槽槽身施工技术进展

阐述我国大型渡槽槽身施工技术的若干最新进展，并探讨了大型梁式渡槽槽身施工中的支撑浇筑系统、伸缩缝止水、预应力张拉等问题，提出大型渡槽槽身施工中支撑系统、施工方法、预应力张拉次序的选择，可供实际工程施工借鉴。     

畦田灌溉水流演进计算简化模型研究

在对水量平衡模型进行修改的基础上,结合零惯量运动方程,以水量平衡方程为基础,对畦灌水流演进模型的结构进行了研究。应用无因次系统模型,求得了模型的显式和隐式解。该模型可以用来计算畦灌水流演进距离。对山东省陈垓引黄灌区畦灌水流演进计算结果表明,该模型比以往使用的模型简单,计算精度与较复杂的零惯量模型的计算精度相当。模型计算不需编程,可以用手算完成全部计算过程,解决了传统的水量平衡模型无法解决的问题。     

基于烟叶致香成分建立烤烟香型分类模型方法研究

为筛选出基于烟叶致香成分数据建立烤烟香型分类的最优模型,以便于较好地对烤烟的香型进行正确分类。首先对142 个烤烟烟叶样品中的45 个指标采用行业标准进行检测,然后采用逐步回归法筛选出14 个烟叶致香成分,依据这14 个指标采用判别分析法、Logistic 回归、高斯混合模型、分类树、K最邻近法、人工神经网络和支持向量机7种方法进行建模。通过对不同方法建立的模型采用100次随机抽取训练集样本和测试样本计算错误分类率,选择错误分类率较低的模型作为优选模型。结果表明,线性判别法和高斯混和模型建立的2 种香型函数能较好地对未知样品的香型进行正确分类,且效果较好（正确率可达90%以上）。研究筛选出的2种优选模型对于烤烟香型分类研究具有一定的应用价值。     

Technical efficiency of different farm sizes for tilapia farming in China

China is the world's largest tilapia producer. This study uses the stochastic frontier function in the Cobb–Douglas model to evaluate a production frontier for tilapia aquaculture and analyses the relationship between farm size and production efficiency in China. A random sample of 300 tilapia farmers was surveyed in the main tilapia‐producing areas to study their economic efficiencies. The percentage distribution of tilapia farm technical efficiency was determined, with an average efficiency of 79%, which showed that the sample tilapia farmers operate at 21% below the production frontier and hence that they still have a chance to achieve targeted yields. The technical efficiencies of two categories (≤1 ha and >1 ha) were 78.82% and 79.27% respectively. A second‐stage analysis investigated the relationship between farm size and technical efficiency and showed a positive relationship between farm size and production efficiency based on the ordinary least‐squares model. The optimal farm size was found to be 7.50 ha. This study proposes strategies such as enlarging the farming scale moderately, thereby achieving the advantage of economies of scale, and enhancing the competitiveness of the tilapia industry in China.     

奶牛杂交群体及其遗传评估的模拟研究

为验证在奶牛杂交群体中将品种组成和杂合度作为协变量的遗传评估理论,为奶牛杂交模式选择和杂交群体遗传评估等实际问题提供理论依据,结合我国奶业现状,本研究模拟了在低产荷斯坦牛群引入法系蒙贝利亚牛、德系西门塔尔牛进行杂交,采用随机交配和三品种轮回杂交模式、群体世代重叠17年的繁育过程.群体杂合度在第7年后趋于平衡,轮回杂交模式的群体杂合度高于随机交配.经过杂交,原中低产荷斯坦牛群体在产奶性能、生长性能方面都有进展,轮回杂交提高幅度相对略高.此外,利用品种效应和杂合度效应剖分杂种优势,采用单性状和多性状动物模型对模拟群体进行遗传评估,效果基本一致,都可以很好地用于杂交群体的遗传评估.结果表明,对荷斯坦牛中低产群体进行杂交,可实现生产性能和效益的提高,回归模型可用于多元群体的遗传评估.     

对退耕还林工程中种草的探讨

分析种草在退耕还林工程中的重要地位和作用 ,提出退耕种草的草种选择和种植模式 ,并探讨发展草产业的途径和方向     

岩羊和马鹿对人与机动车反应的差异分析

人为干扰会对野生动物种间关系、个体适合度、群落结构和繁殖成功率等产生中长期的影响。因此,研究野生动物反干扰行为对于我们认识该物种对其生境的行为适应和进化机制具有重要意义。2017年11—12月在内蒙古贺兰山国家级自然保护区内通过建立多元逻辑斯蒂回归模型研究了岩羊(Pseudois nayaur)、马鹿(Cervus elaphus)的反干扰策略,本研究共设置33条样线,记录了10种在人为干扰下可能会影响岩羊、马鹿反应行为的变量,经模型分析发现影响岩羊反应行为的变量有5种,影响马鹿反应行为的变量有4种,共同影响因子分别是干扰源、性别、头的朝向和地形特征,而植被类型则只对岩羊产生影响。最后根据逻辑模型得出的数据计算发生比,从而了解各个分类变量与反应行为的关系。