高职院校数学建模教学方法探析

以高职教育的培养目标,同时结合教学实践,提出启发式教学法、案例教学法、分层教学法、等适合高职教育的教学方法,发激发高职学生学习数学建模的兴趣,并实现提高教学质量的目的。     

Neural networks in climate spatialization and their application in the agricultural zoning of climate risk for sunflower in different sowing dates

ABSTRACT

Sunflower is a species that is sensitive to local climate conditions. However, studies that use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to evaluate this influence and create tools such as agricultural zoning of climate risk (ZARC) have not been conducted for this species. Due to the importance of sunflower as a human food source and for biodiesel production, and also the necessity of conducting research to evaluate the suitability of this oleaginous species under different climatic conditions. Thus, we seek to construct a ZARC for sunflower in Brazil simulating sowing on different dates and using meteorological elements spatialized by ANNs. Climate data were used: air temperature (T), rainfall (P), relative air humidity (UR), solar radiation (MJ_m^?2_d^?1) and wind velocity (U²). Climatic regions considered suitable for the cultivation of sunflower had average annual values for T between 20 and 28°C, P between 500 and 1.500 mm per cycle, and soil water deficit (DEF) below 140 mm per cycle. A neural network is an efficient tool that can be used in spatialization of climate variables quickly and accurately. Sunflower sowing in the spring and summer are the ones that provide the largest suitable areas in southeastern Brazil, with 58.13 and 64.36% of suitable areas, respectively.     

基于实时含水率数据的土壤墒情动态建模及预测

实时准确地预测墒情是进行灌溉预报,实现农田水分精准化管理,提高水分利用效率的重要措施。基于根区（0−60cm土层）水量平衡原理,利用泰勒级数对根区下界面水分通量和作物蒸腾量进行了线性化处理,并以实时根区平均土壤含水率为自变量构建了动态的土壤墒情预测模型。采用天津市武清区西吕村无线土壤墒情监测系统（包含3个监测点）实时监测数据（地表下30cm和60cm处的土壤含水率）,分别选取5d、10d、15d和20d作为建模系列长度进行回归分析,确定模型参数,对10d和15d两种预见期进行了土壤墒情预测精度分析。结果表明：（1）实时预测模型拟合程度较好,三种建模系列长度条件下的确定性系数均达到0.80以上（样本数均大于550）;（2）15d建模系列长度下相对误差最小;（3）15d建模系列长度、15d预见期、10%相对误差界限值条件下,3个监测点的墒情预测合格率分别达到98%、100%和89%。由此可见,研究提出的实时墒情预测模型预测精度较高,便于建模分析,为土壤墒情的预测提供了新方法。     

Needles in haystacks: Estimating detection probability and occupancy of rare and cryptic snakes

The species most in need of conservation or management are often also the most difficult to monitor, because of their rarity, secretive habits, or both. To combat these challenges, presence/absence (site occupancy) models can be used to track species occupancy at landscape scales. However, quantitative knowledge of detection probability (which is almost always <1) is required to reliably estimate site occupancy. Here, we present a case study that combines detection probabilities and site occupancy modeling to monitor a notoriously secretive guild of animals, North American aquatic snakes. Specifically, we use program PRESENCE to estimate detection probability (p) and probability of site occupancy (ψ) for seven snake species in relationship to site covariates, to understand the proximate and ultimate factors that influence habitat suitability. We were able to estimate p (3–46%) and ψ (12–96%) for each species and calculate the amount of unsuccessful effort necessary to declare absence of each species with statistical confidence (5–63 visits; 150–1890 trap-nights). We documented considerable interspecific variation in p and ψ; one species (Nerodia fasciata) was widespread and highly detectable, while another (Agkistrodon piscivorus) had low detectability despite its wide distribution. Five other species were secretive, or restricted to specific habitat types, or both, illustrating that complex and sometimes counterintuitive relationships exist between capture rate and occupancy. Incorporating p and ψ is essential to the success of large-scale monitoring programs for elusive species.     

Predictions of soil water and crop growth dynamics using the agroecosystem models THESEUS and OPUS

The agroecosystem models THESEUS and OPUS were tested with data obtained from three agricultural experimental field plots on sandy soils without groundwater located at the moraine landscape in East Brandenburg, Germany. At each of these plots, a separate agricultural management practice was applied. Measurements of soil water contents, pressure heads, above‐ground crop biomass, and crop yield from these three plots were compared with the corresponding simulation results of both models. The comparisons of simulated with measured outputs were analyzed using the modeling‐efficiency index IA. According to these analyses, both models simulated adequately the time courses of volumetric soil water contents and above‐ground crop biomass, but the time courses of pressure heads were predicted with a lower quality by both models. As for the pressure heads, the yields simulated with both models showed greater discrepancies in comparison with the observed ones. This indicates the need of a site‐specific parameter calibration of the crop‐growth modules, especially for that included in OPUS .     

基于Kinect V3深度传感器的田间植株点云配准方法

准确建立植物的三维点云是以点云方式高通量获取植株各部位物理参数的前提.为实现田间复杂环境下的植株三维点云配准,该研究提出了一种基于多标定球的田间植株点云自动配准方法,并分别在室内简单场景及大田复杂场景下从不同角度对多种作物采集的点云数据进行验证.该方法采用随机抽样一致性算法(Random Sample Consensu...     

农作物空间格局变化模拟模型的MATLAB实现及应用

Agent模型是研究农业土地系统复杂性与动态性的有效工具。在农作物空间格局变化模拟模型(CroPaDy,an agent-based model for simulating crop pattern dynamics)概念化设计的基础上,借助MATLAB平台开放性、矩阵运算能力强等特点,实现CroPaDy模型的数值模拟,并以黑龙江省宾县调查数据为依据,完成模型的区域实证研究。基于MATLAB的模型实现过程充分考虑了CroPaDy模型的多层次性(土地流转行为与作物选择行为)成功实现了3个子模块的动态嵌套模拟:1)Agent生成模块。基于已有的多源GIS数据、统计数据、典型调查数据、以及个体的通用规则,利用蒙特卡洛方法生成每一个个体Agent的属性信息;2)Agent分类模块。基于调查数据对受访农户进行态度聚类分析,然后借助人工神经网络方法确定所有生成的Agent所在的类型;3)Agent决策模块。利用概率方法,计算特定周期内每个Agent的决策行为。区域实证研究中,直接将空间耕地网格作为个体Agent,实现区域全覆盖(网格大小设置为114 m×114 m,约等于户均耕地面积),模拟结果表明,研究区2010年玉米、大豆、水稻、烤烟的模拟结果分别为2 6055.9、5 192.2、3 506.8、3 983.9 hm2,利用宾县统计年鉴(2010)进行验证,模型总体模拟精度达90%以上。CroPaDy模型的设计与实现科学合理,具有较强的理论性与可操作性,能够用以表达特定区域内的农作物空间格局及其动态变化过程。     

高职院校数学建模课程的改革研究

分析了高职院校数学建模课程教学中存在的主要问题,并提出相应的改革对策和建议。     

RZWQM simulation of long-term crop production, water and nitrogen balances in Northeast Iowa

Agricultural system models are tools to represent and understand major processes and their interactions in agricultural systems. We used the Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM) with 26 years of data from a study near Nashua, IA to evaluate year to year crop yield, water, and N balances. The model was calibrated using data from one 0.4 ha plot and evaluated by comparing simulated values with data from 29 of the 36 plots at the same research site (six were excluded). The dataset contains measured tile flow that varied considerably from plot to plot so we calibrated total tile flow amount by adjusting a lateral hydraulic gradient term for subsurface lateral flow below tiles for each plot. Keeping all other soil and plant parameters constant, RZWQM correctly simulated year to year variations in tile flow (r² = 0.74) and N loading in tile flow (r² = 0.71). Yearly crop yield variation was simulated with less satisfaction (r² = 0.52 for corn and r² = 0.37 for soybean) although the average yields were reasonably simulated. Root mean square errors (RMSE) for simulated soil water storage, water table, and annual tile flow were 3.0, 22.1, and 5.6 cm, respectively. These values were close to the average RMSE for the measured data between replicates (3.0, 22.4, and 5.7 cm, respectively). RMSE values for simulated annual N loading and residual soil N were 16.8 and 47.0 kg N ha⁻¹, respectively, which were much higher than the average RMSE for measurements among replicates (7.8 and 38.8 kg N ha⁻¹, respectively). The high RMSE for N simulation might be caused by high simulation errors in plant N uptake. Simulated corn (Zea mays L.) and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] yields had high RMSE (1386 and 674 kg ha⁻¹) with coefficient of variations (CV) of 0.19 and 0.25, respectively. Further improvements were needed for better simulating plant N uptake and yield, but overall, results for annual tile flow and annual N loading in tile flow were acceptable.     

Case- carburization Numerical Modeling and Craft Optimization on Steel Parts of Various Shapes

According to the diffusion equation of carburizing process and its boundary conditionand initial condition, various shapes steel parts are modeled under various case carburize craft parameters, concentration distribution curves have been obtained. Various craft parameters are compared, and carburizing temperature has more influence on carbon concentration distribution. Various shapes steel parts' carbon concentration distribution curves have some difference. According to the carbon concentration distribution curve, craft parameters can be adjusted in order to obtain the best carburizing craft.