Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

Improving wood volume predictions in dry tropical forest in the semi-arid Brazil

The volumetric variability of dry tropical forests in Brazil and the scarcity of studies on the subject show the need for the development of techniques that make it possible to obtain adequate and accurate wood volume estimates. In this study, we analyzed a database of thinning trees from a forest management plan in the Contendas de Sincorá National Forest, southwestern Bahia State, Brazil. The data set included a total of 300 trees with a trunk diameter ranging from 5 to 52 cm. Adjustments, validation and statistical selection of four volumetric models were performed. Due to the difference in height values for the same diameter and the low correlation between both variables, we do not suggest models which only use the diameter at breast height (DBH) variable as a predictor because they accommodate the largest estimation errors. In comparing the best single entry model (Hohenald-Krenn) with the Spurr model (best fit model), it is noted that the exclusion of height as a predictor causes the values of 136.44 and 0.93 for Akaike information criterion (AIC) and adjusted determination coefficient (R2 adj), which are poorer than the second best model (Schumacher-Hall). Regarding the minimum sample size, errors in estimation (root mean square error (RMSE) and bias) of the best model decrease as the sample size increases, especially when a larger number of trees with DBH≥15.0 cm are randomly sampled. Stratified sampling by diameter class produces smaller volume prediction errors than random sampling, especially when considering all trees. In summary, the Spurr and Schumacher-Hall models perform better. These models suggest that the total variance explained in the estimates is not less than 95%, producing reliable forecasts of the total volume with shell. Our estimates indicate that the bias around the average is not greater than 7%. Our results support the decision to use regression methods to build models and estimate their parameters, seeking stratification strategies in diameter classes for the sample trees. Volume estimates with valid confidence intervals can be obtained using the Spurr model for the studied dry forest. Stratified sampling of the data set for model adjustment and selection is necessary, since we find significant results with mean error square root values and bias of up to 70% of the total database.     

3D modeling and reconstruction of plants and trees: A cross-cutting review across computer graphics,vision, and plant phenotyping

This paper reviews the past and current trends of three-dimensional (3D) modeling and reconstruction of plants and trees. These topics have been studied in multiple research fields, including computer vision, graphics, plant phenotyping, and forestry. This paper, therefore, provides a cross-cutting review. Representations of plant shape and structure are first summarized, where every method for plant modeling and reconstruction is based on a shape/structure representation. The methods were then categorized into 1) creating non-existent plants (modeling) and 2) creating models from real-world plants (reconstruction). This paper also discusses the limitations of current methods and possible future directions.     

国家尺度种植业面源污染负荷估算方法研究

空间尺度上,种植业面源污染负荷估算可用分为田块尺度、流域尺度和区域尺度。国家尺度属于区域尺度范畴,是掌握整个国家种植业源污染负荷概况、检验种植业面源污染防治措施成效、预测面源污染发展趋势的重要尺度。本文综述了国家尺度上种植业面源污染负荷估算的研究方法,主要包括输出系数法、改进输出系数法、多元回归法、贝叶斯递归回归树模型、过程模型模拟法等,并利用以上方法对我国种植业面源污染负荷进行估算。其中氮素径流损失估算结果在0.30～2.40 Tg之间,氮素淋洗损失为0.36～2.03 Tg,磷素径流损失为3.5～6.37 Mg。指出了我国国家尺度种植业面源污染流失量估算方法存在以下主要问题:源头排放未区分背景排放和肥料排放,也未考虑南方一年多熟制排放差异,过程削减未充分考虑沿程消纳。为此,提出我国国家尺度种植业面源污染负荷估算方法应进一步明细各土地利用输出系数、区分背景排放和肥料排放,考虑我国熟制的区域差异、考虑田块到流域出口的沿程削减。     

Application of crop growth simulation and mathematical modeling to supply chain management in the Thai sugar industry

The poorly integrated cane supply planning between mills and cane growers in the Northeast of Thailand generates an excess of cane supplies that exceeds the mills’ capacity during the peak of harvest season. Each grower individually determines his/her cultivation plan by selecting planting dates and cultivars based on one’s own preference without taking into account the individual mill’s capacity and other growers’ plans. This situation causes most sugarcane grown in this area to reach its mature stage at the same period. In this study, we propose a framework of cultivation planning to cope with the problem. The focus of the cultivation plan is a long-term plan to determine the cultivation time, the cultivar selection and the corresponding prospective harvesting time window for each field such that overall sugar production is optimized.The crop growth model and a mathematical model are employed for yield simulation and optimization task. The crop growth model enables decision-makers to visualize cane production of each individual field at different dates with different cultivars and allow decision-makers to apply the mathematical programming to cultivation planning. The suggested framework has the potential to increase sugar production by 23% when compared to the traditional method.     

农业装备物流体系的数学建模

在分析了农业装备物流体系特点的基础上,指出了目前存在的数学模型不能完全体现和描述农业装备物流体系的特点;建立了基于面向环境时延着色Petri网(EOCTPN)的农业装备物流体系数学模型;研究了不同类型农业装备物流体系对库存总成本和长鞭效应的影响程度;解决了目前存在的无法将正向物流和逆向物流有机结合在一起的问题;有效克服了基础Petri网描述此类问题出现的"节点爆炸"现象.在仿真实验的基础上,提出了应如何构建农业装备物流体系的方法.     

基于对象建模的农机产品CAPP系统设计与应用

利用对象建模技术,通过抽象与重组形成CAPP系统的一般对象模型,并把对象、关联及操作等映射成数据库表和程序实体,结合农机产品CAPP实例论述了工艺过程卡对象模型的实现流程,分析了选单等的设计重用方法。实践证明,CAPP系统开发过程中,只需开发一个编辑窗口,而非对应每一个数据表开发相应的编辑窗口。当数据表发生结构改变时可通过修改数据窗口来实现。采用这种方法,同一个选单就可以被不同的窗口所共用,使系统的开发效率大大提高,同时系统的结构也非常合理,根据作业机的主体结构相似性,可应用于各类农机制造的工艺设计过程。     

基于Modelica语言建模的柴油机稳动态性能仿真与试验

针对传统柴油机建模效率不高、所建模型抽象不易理解、软件平台开放程度差、模型通用性低的问题,采用多领域统一物理建模规范Modelica语言和面向对象的建模思想建立了柴油机的仿真模型。以上柴D4114B型发电用柴油机为例,在解决上述问题的同时模拟了负荷特性下柴油机的稳态过程,最高压力、排温等稳态数据点的实测值与仿真值的最大相对误差为8.9%,证明了所建立的柴油机模型具有较好的稳态性能。在此基础上进行了动态仿真,模拟了转速、单缸循环油量等参数的动态变化规律,并将部分参数的仿真值与实测值进行比较,两者吻合得比较好,证明了所建立的柴油机模型能较好地预测其动态性能,可为后续的基于Modelica语言的柴油机建模提供参考。     

轮式车辆稳态滑移转向仿真研究

详细分析了轮式车辆在低速稳态条件下的滑移转向过程,建立了稳态转向数学模型,最后基于某6×6全地形车,使用建立的数学模型对其转向动力学性能进行仿真分析。仿真结果表明：转向半径越小,车辆的滑转、滑移现象越严重,车辆受到的转向阻力也越大;地面附着系数越小,车辆受到的转向阻力越小,但附着系数较小时,车辆则容易打滑,不利于转向。     

基于胶粘物质的肥料控释装置的方案设计及其养分释放模拟

该文提出了可应用于农田的肥料控释装置方案设计,此装置由肥料主管道和养分释放分管道组成,选取天然、半天然高分子材料壳聚糖和果胶作为释放分管道的胶粘物质,在实验室条件下检测了其控释效果,结果表明:养分主要呈线性释放,装置具有良好控释效果.利用Fick第一扩散定律和欧姆定律模拟了装置养分的释放,结果表明:养分的释放主要受扩散系数或物阻率、扩散面积、胶粘物质厚度等因素影响.该模型表明,养分是呈线性释放的,和实测结果相一致,并由此计算出了胶粘物质的控释参数:扩散系数或物阻率,为实际应用提供了理论基础.