基于多元统计分析的茄衣烟叶生产气候资源配置

为探究茄衣烟叶生产中的气候资源配置情况,以“云雪1号”品种为试验材料,通过调整移栽期以改变烟株生育期内的气候指标,采用多元统计分析法研究茄衣烟叶的气候资源配置及其对烟株农艺性状及发酵后烟叶化学成分的影响。相关性分析结果显示,烟株大田期的积温、≥10 ℃有效积温、总降水量与总温差对烟株农艺性状各指标的影响较大,其相关系数分布范围为0.478~0.939,而积温、≥10 ℃有效积温、平均气温对烟叶总糖、烟碱、总氮、蛋白质含量影响较大,其相关系数分布范围为-0.955~-1.000。采用因子分析的方法在8项气候指标中提取出气候积累因子与湿度因子2个主因子,进一步通过灰色关联分析得出上述二者分别是影响烟株农艺性状和烟叶常规化学成分的主因子。以上结果表明,确定茄衣烟株移栽期的主要气候因子依据为大田生育期的气温、降水量和相对湿度的综合配置。     

红肉猕猴桃果园管理技术概述

红肉猕猴桃是猕猴桃中的特色类群。红肉猕猴桃品种在消费市场需求旺盛,商业价值突出,商业栽培面积快速增加,但产业发展中的技术问题也日益突出。本文就红肉猕猴桃产业发展的基本环境和现状、果园生产的技术问题及解决方案等做一概述,以期为红肉猕猴桃产业健康持续发展提供建议。     

中国马铃薯上几种纽带亚科线虫记述(Ⅱ)

2001~2004年,对中国16个省(直辖市、自治区)部分地区的马铃薯线虫进行了采样调查,并分离鉴定出7个纽带亚科线虫,其中6个是马铃薯上的新记录种。笔者对其中4个种:松树拟盘旋线虫(Pararotylen-chus piniMamiya,1968)、假强壮螺旋线虫[Helicotylenchus pseudorobustus(Steiner,1914)Golden,1956]、双宫螺旋线虫[H.dihystera(Cobb,1890)Sher,1961]和明茨螺旋线虫(H.minziSher,1966)的形态进行了描述。     

气候变化对临沂冬小麦主要生育期的影响及适播期研究

为了研究气候变化对临沂市冬小麦生产的影响,确定合理播期和适宜的田间管理措施。利用2001—2021年临沂市气象资料和农业农村部门苗情调查数据,同时参考1962—2000年临沂市历史天气数据,采用线性趋势性预测对小麦生育期温度、积温以及主要生育期日期和持续时间进行变化规律分析。结果表明:临沂市冬小麦适播期和各生育期均对气候变化发生了不同的响应,适播期为10月8—19日,最佳播期为10月11—14日;分蘖期出现反复降温频率变高,促进了小麦冬前抗寒锻炼,利于形成壮苗;冬前积温增多和越冬期延迟,间接推迟了适播期,为上一季玉米晚收创造了条件;返青大幅提前和返青后积温显著增加,大幅缩短了小麦停止生长和越冬时间,增加了冬小麦实际生长时间,有利于冬小麦苗情转化;拔节期大幅提前,使小麦更容易遭受晚霜冻(冷)害和倒春寒;4月和5月温度下降为小麦抽穗、扬花、灌浆提供了更好的气候条件,特别是5月温度下降既减少了干热风的发生机率又利于小麦后期灌浆。确定了临沂市冬小麦适播期,为小麦全生育期田间管理和高产栽培提供了依据。     

气候变暖对临汾合欢物候期的影响

为揭示气候变暖对黄土高原城市典型木本植物物候的影响,以临汾合欢为研究对象,采用线性回归、小波分析、相关分析等方法,分析探讨气温、积温等气候因子对临汾合欢各物候期的影响。结果表明,由于气候变暖,临汾年平均气温呈上升趋势,1983—2021年上升了2.9℃;年降水量存在6年和15年2个周期。临汾合欢春季物候期提前,秋季物候期变化趋势不明显,生长季延长。气温和积温对合欢展叶始期和开花始期表现为极显著相关,对果实成熟期表现为显著相关。叶变色始期、落叶末期对气象条件反应不敏感,主要受果实成熟期的出现日期影响。     

辽西北霜期气候变化及气象服务对策

为了霜期设施农业充分利用气候资源适应气候变化,规避气象灾害风险,利用辽宁西北部气象资料分析霜期气候资源变化,并探讨霜期设施农业气象服务对策。结果表明：辽西北地区霜期气温升高而不稳,极端最低气温天气更显突出,霜期降雪增加,阴天日数增加,日照时间减少,太阳总辐射减弱,大风强度增加,霜期极端天气现象对霜期设施农业影响显著。霜期设施农业气象服务势在必行,为了推动霜期设施农业的发展,应从设施农业工程、环境控制、利用气候资源节约能源、适应气候变化等方面入手,建立评估、监测、预警气象服务一体化服务系统,通过网络平台,搭建专业化、动态化、多元化、精细化的霜期设施农业气象服务预警平台,提高防灾减灾能力,确保霜期设施农业可持续发展。     

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。     

Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

Mapping the current and future distributions of Onosma species endemic to Iran

Climate change may cause shifts in the natural range of species especially for those that are geographically restricted and/or endemic species. In this study, the spatial distribution of five endemic and threatened species belonging to the genus Onosma (including O. asperrima, O. bisotunensis, O. kotschyi, O. platyphylla, and O. straussii) was investigated under present and future climate change scenarios: RCP2.6 (RCP, representative concentration pathway; optimistic scenario) and RCP8.5 (pessimistic scenario) for the years 2050 and 2080 in Iran. Analysis was conducted using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model to provide a basis for the protection and conservation of these species. Seven environmental variables including aspect, depth of soil, silt content, slope, annual precipitation, minimum temperature of the coldest month, and annual temperature range were used as main predictors in this study. The model output for the potential habitat suitability of the studied species showed acceptable performance for all species (i.e., the area under the curve (AUC)>0.800). According to the models generated by MaxEnt, the potential current patterns of the species were consistent with the observed areas of distributions. The projected climate maps under optimistic and pessimistic scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively) of 2050 and 2080 resulted in reductions and expansions as well as positive range changes for all species in comparison to their current predicted distributions. Among all species, O. bisotunensis showed the most significant and highest increase under the pessimistic scenario of 2050 and 2080. Finally, the results of this study revealed that the studied plant species have shown an acute adaptability to environmental changes. The results can provide useful information to managers to apply appropriate strategies for the management and conservation of these valuable Iranian medicinal and threatened plant species in the future.     

夏玉米产量时空变化及气候年型分析

定量分析夏玉米同一品种产量及产量构成要素时空变化,探讨造成产量时空差异的气候年型组合变化特征。基于2004～2013年夏玉米种植区郑单958多点田间试验数据分析表明,夏玉米区域平均产量为9 055 kg/hm~2,年际差为1 635 kg/hm~2,变幅为18.1%;地点差4 258 kg/hm~2,变幅为47.1%。夏玉米区域平均千粒重为313 g,年际变幅为13.1%;地点变幅为27.8%。夏玉米区域平均穗粒数为479,年际变幅为18.0%,地点变幅为38.7%。千粒重的增加导致夏玉米产量显著增加。穗粒数显著降低和时空差异大是造成产量波动和时空差异变幅大的主要原因。夏玉米产量和产量构成要素,低产点受各气候要素变化的影响显著;平产点受温度和日最高温度大于33℃的天数影响显著;高产点受降水影响显著。