A fuzzy logic-classification of sediments based on data from in vitro biotests

Background, aim, and scope  Ecotoxicological risk assessment of sediments is usually based on a multitude of data obtained from tests with different endpoints. In the present study, a fuzzy logic-based model was developed in order to reduce the complexity of these data sets and to classify sediments on the basis of results from a battery of in vitro biotests. Materials and methods  The membership functions were adapted to fit the specific sensitivity and variability of each biotest. For this end, data sets were categorized into three toxicity levels using the box plot and empirical methods. The variability of each biotest was determined to calculate the range of the gradual membership. In addition, the biotests selected were ranked according to the biological organisation level in order to consider the ecological relevance of the endpoints measured by selected over- or underestimation of the toxicity levels. In the next step of the fuzzy logic model, a rule-base was implemented using if...and...then decisions to arrive at a system of five quality classes. Results  The results of the classification of sediments from the Rhine and Danube Rivers showed the highest correlation between the biotest results and the fuzzy logic alternative based on the empirical method (i.e. the classification of the data sets into toxicity levels). Discussion  Many different classification systems based on biological test systems are depending on respective data sets; therefore, they are difficult to compare with other locations. Furthermore, they don‘t consider the inherent variability of biotests and the ecological relevance of these test systems as well. In order to create a comprehensive risk assessment for sediments, mathematical models should be used which take uncertainties of biotest systems into account, since they are of particular importance for a reliable assessment. In the present investigation, the variability and ecological relevance of biotests were incorporated into a classification system based on fuzzy logic. Furthermore, since data from different sites and investigations were used to create membership functions of the fuzzy logic, this classification system has the potential to be independent of locations. Conclusions  In conclusion, the present fuzzy logic classification model provides an opportunity to integrate expert knowledge as well as acute and mechanism-specific effects for the classification of sediments for an ecotoxicological risk assessment. Recommendations and perspectives  In order to achieve a more comprehensive classification, further investigation is needed to incorporate results of chemical analyses and in situ parameters. Furthermore, more discussions are necessary with respect to the relative weight attributed to different ecological and chemical parameters in order to obtain a more precise assessment of sediments.     

外来入侵种薇甘菊在惠州的分布与危害

采用植物样方调查与实地调查相结合的方法,对外来入侵种薇甘菊在惠州的分布与危害进行了调查与分析,结果表明:惠州市2008年薇甘菊的入侵面积为1 847 hm2,2009年就达到了18 553 hm2,仅1 a的时间,入侵面积增加了10倍之多,入侵的县(市、区)也从4个增加到5个,入侵速度十分惊人;薇甘菊侵害的最大群落是灌木林、人工林和果树林,易在林缘、果园、溪河岸、公路和铁路沿线、低洼潮湿的空旷地区和城镇的绿化地生长,而且生长迅速。薇甘菊的危害特点是遇草覆盖、遇树攀援,导致被攀援的灌木、小乔木和十多米高的大树被严密覆盖,最终因无法进行正常的光合作用而窒息死亡。可采用人工防除、化学防除、生物防除、生态防除、天敌防除等方法进行全面综合治理。     

PHENIPS—A comprehensive phenology model of Ips typographus (L.) (Col., Scolytinae) as a tool for hazard rating of bark beetle infestation

We developed the model PHENIPS for spatial and temporal simulation of the seasonal development of Ips typographus at the Kalkalpen National Park in Austria. The model is based on a digital elevation model used for interpolation of temperature and solar radiation to calculate the microclimatic conditions (bark temperature) for the beetles’ development. Additionally, the beetles’ phenology at Kalkalpen National Park was monitored along with air and bark temperature measurements. The onset of host tree infestation in spring was estimated using a lower threshold of 16.5 °C for flight activity and a mean thermal sum of 140 degree-days (dd) from beginning of April 1st onward. Rate of brood development was calculated from accumulated degree-days of hourly temperature data using upper and lower temperature thresholds of 38.9 and 8.3 °C, respectively, and a nonlinear function for calculating effective thermal sums. Re-emergence of parental beetles occurred at a time when 49.7% of the thermal sum for total development (557 dd) was reached. The model includes the discontinuance of the beetle's reproductive activity at a day length <14.5 h. The rate of successful hibernation of established broods is predicted by assessing the developmental stage of initiated generations at the beginning of the cold period. For validation we compared the timing of phenological events in the field with predicted events using both, hourly recorded data at trap trees in the terrain and generated daily topoclimatic data. Using topoclimatic data, the onset of infestation was predicted with a mean absolute error of 1.3 days. The observed onset of emergence of filial beetles in the field was estimated with a mean error of 39 dd. Our PHENIPS explicitly considers the strong effects of regional topography and stand conditions on local air and bark temperature and can be used for precise monitoring of the actual state of bark beetle development at the specific stand/tree level. Using topoclimatic data, PHENIPS simulates the maximum number of generations which is necessary to assess the potential impact of bark beetle outbreaks at regional scale. Further applications of PHENIPS for site-specific hazard rating of bark beetle infestation are discussed.     

Using Neutral Models to Identify Constraints on Low-severity Fire Regimes

Climate, topography, fuel loadings, and human activities all affect spatial and temporal patterns of fire occurrence. Because fire is modeled as a stochastic process, for which each fire history is only one realization, a simulation approach is necessary to understand baseline variability, thereby identifying constraints, or forcing functions, that affect fire regimes. With a suitable neutral model, characteristics of natural fire regimes estimated from fire history data can be compared to a “null hypothesis”. We generated random landscapes of fire-scarred trees via a point process with sequential spatial inhibition. Random ignition points, fire sizes, and fire years were drawn from uniform and exponential family probability distributions. We compared two characteristics of neutral fire regimes to those from five watersheds in eastern Washington that have experienced low-severity fire. Composite fire intervals (CFIs) at multiple spatial scales displayed similar monotonic decreases with increasing sample area in neutral vs. real landscapes, although patterns of residuals from statistical models differed. In contrast, parameters of the Weibull distribution associated with temporal trends in fire hazard exhibited different forms of scale dependence in real vs. simulated data. Clear patterns in neutral landscapes suggest that deviations from them in empirical data represent real constraints on fire regimes (e.g., topography, fuels). As with any null model, however, neutral fire-regime models need to be carefully tuned to avoid confounding these constraints with artifacts of modeling. Neutral models show promise for investigating low-severity fire regimes to separate intrinsic properties of stochastic processes from the effects of climate, fuel loadings, topography, and management.     

食用菌工厂化生产技术改进方法与思路

通过对我国食用菌工厂化生产现状与面临问题的分析,指出生产技术改进的必要性,并从技术特点和技术内容两方面,提出建立食用菌工业化清洁生产工艺及安全危害关键点控制技术的方法与思路。     

刍议HACCP在动物防疫中的应用

HACCP作为控制食品安全的预防体系,与动物防疫“预防为主”的方针相得益彰,将HACCP应用于动物疫病的预防中,不仅能有效预防和控制动物疫病,而且能充分保证动物源食品的安全,使两者有机结合,良性互动。     

HACCP在低温火腿生产中控制细菌污染的应用

ＨＡＣＣＰ是８０年代发达国家广泛采用的一种食品质量管理方法。应用ＨＡＣＣＰ原理，对低温火腿生产的工艺流程做了大量试验和危害分析。确定了关键控制点，制定出切实可行的控制细菌污染的措施，在生产中应用后收到了预期效果。     

白裙赭夜蛾对速丰桉的危害与综合治理

从白裙赭夜蛾的分布状况、对速丰桉的潜在危害性、寄主植物的经济重要性、传播扩散的可能性以及控制的难易程度等方面对该害虫的发生和危害进行定性和定量分析,并作出综合评价。结果表明,白裙赭夜蛾在广西是危害速丰桉的高度危险有害生物,建议加强速丰桉林区的虫情监测,防止人为传播。并提出了白裙赭夜蛾的综合治理措施。     

HACCP体系在出口浓缩苹果清汁生产中的建立及应用

将HACCP体系应用于出口浓缩苹果清汁的生产过程中,对浓缩苹果清汁的生产过程进行了危害分析,并确立了原料验收、拣选、后巴氏杀菌、灌装前过滤、发运前检查签封五个关键控制点,并根据生产的实际情况及实验确立了每个关键控制点的关键限值,监控和纠偏措施.同时,对HACCP体系的有效运行做了说明和分析.     

白牦牛消毒奶HACCP体系的建立

为规范白牦牛牛奶加工过程,确保消毒奶安全,从天祝天润绿色食品公司白牦牛原料奶验收、加工等环节入手,在对消毒奶加工工艺流程进行分析和检测的基础上,确定了危害点,建立了一整套完整可行的消毒奶加工HACCP体系。