Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Sowing time and direct seeding success of native tree species for restoring tropical forest ecosystems in northern Thailand

New Forests - Direct seeding (sowing seeds directly into ground) is potentially a cost-effective method of forest restoration that could replace or complement conventional tree planting, under...     

Selective silencing of foreign DNA with low GC content by the H-NS protein in Salmonella

Horizontal gene transfer plays a major role in microbial evolution. However, newly acquired sequences can decrease fitness unless integrated into preexisting regulatory networks. We found that the histone-like nucleoid structuring protein (H-NS) selectively silences horizontally acquired genes by targeting sequences with GC content lower than the resident genome. Mutations in hns are lethal in Salmonella unless accompanied by compensatory mutations in other regulatory loci. Thus, H-NS provides a previously unrecognized mechanism of bacterial defense against foreign DNA, enabling the acquisition of DNA from exogenous sources while avoiding detrimental consequences from unregulated expression of newly acquired genes. Characteristic GC/AT ratios of bacterial genomes may facilitate discrimination between a cell's own DNA and foreign DNA.     

Rare β-Resorcylic Acid Derivatives from a Halophyte-Associated Fungus Colletotrichum gloeosporioides JS0419 and Their Antifungal Activities

Six new β-resorcylic acid derivatives (1–5 and 7) were isolated from a halophyte-associated fungus, Colletotrichum gloeosporioides JS0419, together with four previously reported β-resorcylic acid lactones (RALs). The relative and absolute stereochemistry of 1 was completely established by a combination of spectroscopic data and chemical reactions. The structures of the isolated compounds were elucidated by analysis of HRMS and NMR data. Notably, compounds 1–3 had a β-resorcylic acid harboring a long unesterified aliphatic side chain, whereas the long aliphatic chains were esterified to form macrolactones in 4–9. Among the isolated compounds, monocillin I and radicicol showed potent antifungal activities against Cryptococcus neoformans, comparable to clinically available antifungal agents and radicicol showed weak antifungal activity against Candida albicans. These findings provide insight into the chemical diversity of fungal RAL-type compounds and their pharmacological potential.     

Movement patterns of Brook Trout in a restored coastal stream system in southern Massachusetts

Coastal Brook Trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) populations are found from northern Canada to New England. The extent of anadromy generally decreases with latitude, but the ecology and movements of more southern populations are poorly understood. We conducted a 33‐month acoustic telemetry study of Brook Trout in Red Brook, MA, and adjacent Buttermilk Bay (marine system) using 16 fixed acoustic receivers and surgically implanting acoustic transmitters in 84 individuals. Tagged Brook Trout used the stream, estuary (50% of individuals) and bay (10% of individuals). Movements into full sea water were brief when occurring. GAMM models revealed that transitions between habitat areas occurred most often in spring and fall. Environmental data suggest that use of the saline environment is limited by summer temperatures in the bay. Movements may also be related to moon phase. Compared to more northern coastal populations of Brook Trout, the Red Brook population appears to be less anadromous overall, yet the estuarine segment of the system may have considerable ecological importance as a food resource.     

Main stem movement of Atlantic salmon parr in response to high river temperature

Atlantic salmon become thermally stressed when water temperatures exceed 23 °C. To alleviate this stress, they behaviourally thermoregulate by moving to patches of cold water, often forming large aggregations. These patches are known as thermal refuges. Given the consensus that climate change will increase temperatures in Atlantic salmon catchments, thermal refuges will become increasingly important in minimising summer mortalities. While the behaviour of salmonids within thermal refuges is fairly well understood, less is known about their main stem movement in search of thermal refuges or its thermal and temporal cues. We detail the results of a PIT telemetry study to investigate the main stem movement behaviour of thermally stressed Atlantic salmon parr in a temperature‐impacted river. PIT antennas placed around two thermal refuges and at the upstream and downstream limits of their surrounding reach were used to record the movement of salmonids during a heatwave. We observed parr movement at the upstream and downstream antennas 135 min prior to the occurrence of the midpoint of aggregations in the thermal refuges, indicating that Atlantic salmon parr make reach‐scale movements in search of cool water prior to aggregating. Logistic regression showed that the number of degree hours >28 °C predicted the occurrence of main stem movement with a good degree of accuracy, indicating that this temperature represents a fundamental threshold causing Atlantic salmon parr to move towards cool water. Such data could be instrumental in allowing river managers to place limits on human activity within rivers, allowing salmon populations time to recover following heat stress events.     

Dispersal and tributary immigration by juvenile coho salmon contribute to spatial expansion during colonisation

Anadromous fishes are frequently restricted by artificial barriers to movement such as dams and culverts, so measuring dispersal helps identify sites where improved connectivity could promote range expansion and population viability. We used a combination of DNA‐based parentage analysis and mark–recapture techniques to evaluate dispersal by juvenile coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in a population in the initial stages of colonisation following installation of fish passage structures at a previously impassable dam on the Cedar River, WA, USA. The spatial distribution of individuals within maternal families revealed that dispersal was common. Among the offspring of radio‐tagged mothers, 28% were collected outside the spawning reach and dispersed up to 6.3 km (median = 1.5 km). Most juveniles captured in a tributary (Rock Creek, where few adults spawned) had immigrated from the Cedar River and represented many different families. Juvenile dispersal therefore provided a secondary phase of spatial expansion following initial colonisation by adults. Consistent with the condition‐dependent dispersal hypothesis, juveniles that dispersed farther upstream in the tributary were larger than fish collected near the tributary mouth. Overall, the results demonstrated widespread dispersal in a system with low coho salmon densities, and this might increase the rate of population growth if it reduces the effects of local density dependence. By implication, juveniles can take advantage of rearing habitats reconnected through barrier removal, even when such areas are located several kilometres from adult breeding grounds.     

Agronomic and physiological contributions to the yield improvement of soybean cultivars released from 1950 to 2006 in Northeast China

Increasing yield is a high priority in most breeding programs. Approximately 600 soybean cultivars had been released by the end of the last century in Northeast China. Understanding the agronomic and physiological changes is essential for planning further plant breeding strategies in soybean. In this study, 45 representative soybean cultivars, from maturity groups 00 and 0, released from 1950 to 2006 in Northeast China were compared in field conditions for 3 consecutive years. A positive correlation between seed yield and year of cultivar release was indicated with a 0.58% average annual increase. Seed number per plant was the most important contributor to yield gain, with a 0.41% increase per year. Pod number per plant and seed size varied slightly with the year of cultivar release. Although variation in protein was from 37.0% to 45.5%, and oil concentration was from 16.7% to 22.0%, their concentrations were not consistently related to year of cultivar release. A 33% increase in the photosynthetic rate, 10.6% increase in plant dry weight and 19.0% increase in harvest index (HI) were found, while leaf area index (LAI) decreased by 17.3%. Modern cultivars have higher photosynthetic rates than their predecessors. The reduced plant height gave increased resistance to lodging, with the lodging score dropping from 3.2 in 1951 to 1.0 in 2006. Seed resistances to disease and pest infestation were also improved. Yield stability was enhanced over years, which could be attributed to the stable pod production across different environments. A flow diagram to explain the contributors to genetic improvement of soybeans in Northeast China was developed.     

Products from the sensitised photo-oxidation of 2-dimethylamino-5,6-dimethylpyrimidin-4-ol

The products from the methylene blue sensitised photo-oxidation of 2-dimethylamino-5,6-dimethylpyrimidin-4-ol (I) in deuterochloroform/deuteroacetone have been investigated. A zwitterion and a hydroperoxide are formed initially, with the zwitterion predominating. The zwitterion compound degrades or reacts in the solid state on silica gel to give further products.