A multivariable prognostic model for equine colic patients

A survey of 1965 equine colic cases was conducted from August 1985 to July 1986 ten equine referral hospitals located througout the U.S.A. Two-thirds of the cases were randomly selected for model development (1336), while the remaining cases (629) were used only for subsequent validation of the model. The following outcomes were defined: (1) died or killed prior to discharge from the hospital; or (2) alive at the time of discharge. Only variables which were significant (P<0.05) in an initial bivariate screening procedure and for which there were less than 400 missing values were considered in the multivariable modelling. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed using a stepwise algorithm. The model used 666 cases and included the following variables: peripheral pulse (normal or weak), pulse rate, surgical or medical treatment, packed cell volume, self-inflicted trauma (absent or present) and capillary refill time. For each horse in the validation data set which had the appropriate variables recorded (n=335), the estimated expected probability of death (expected value) was calculated using the logistic regression equation. Using Bayes theorem, the post-test probability was calculated from the expected value (an estimate of the test odds) and the present probability (the case-fatality rate at each institution). Nomograms of predictive values for different case-fatality rates and expected values were constructed. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicated that the model fitted the model data set well but the validation set poorly. However, when the observed case-fatality rates were compared with the average post-test probabilities for 0.10 increments of post-test probability, qualitatively, the model's performance was better.     

水稻烯效唑试验效果

"多效唑"是北流市应用农作物化控技术仅次于"九二○"(赤霉素)的植物生长调节剂,其应用面积已具有相当规模.在水稻上使用,可提高秧苗素质,有效地控制株高和调整产量构成因素获得增产,但美中不足的是使用后在土壤中残留量较大.而江苏张家港市七洲农药化工有限公司生产的烯效唑,因具有高效、稳定、广谱、低残留等特点,兼具良好的杀菌作用,是替代多效唑的理想产品.根据自治区粮食自给工程项目办推荐和提供供试材料,我们于2000年分别在民乐、山围两个镇布点进行小区试验和大田验证示范.     

鹅消化道正常菌群定植规律的研究

为了探讨鹅日龄和消化道部位对正常均群定植规律的影响，以吉林白鹅为实验动物，试验期间饲喂以玉米秸秆为主要纤维源的日粮。采用稀释滴种法对0～56日龄鹅及成鹅消化道6个部位（腺胃、十二指肠、空肠、回肠、盲肠和直肠）靠近黏膜的内容物及黏膜的8种细菌（双歧杆菌、乳酸杆菌、真杆菌、消化球菌、类杆菌、肠球菌、葡萄球菌和大肠杆菌）进行分离、培养、鉴定、计数，从而获得主要正常菌群在消化道中的定植过程。     

(木亡)果新品种''桂热(木亡)120号''

经过无性系后代遗传性测定、区试及示范,(木亡)果新品种'桂热(木亡)120号'表现优质,丰产稳产,果实美观,肉质细滑,味清甜,可食率高,树冠较矮化,易于控冠.     

家蚕品种遗传分化的随机扩增多态性DNA分析

对广东现行家蚕生产品种9·芙×7·湘杂交亲本的基因组进行随机扩增多态性DNA(RAPD)分析。统计了932、7532、芙蓉、湘晖、9·芙、7·湘品种的蚕卵70个随机引物的RAPD扩增标记数,经计算其遗传相似系数,作遗传距离分析,同一系统内的品种间遗传差异小,系统间的品种遗传差异大,与传统的家蚕系统分类的结果完全相符。因此RAPD作为有效的跗标记。可适用于研究家蚕品种的遗传多样性、起源以及系统的演变分化。     

营养液条件下油酸对黄瓜幼苗生长的影响

水培条件下，研究不同油酸水平对黄瓜幼苗生长的直接影响。与对照相比，生物量和生理指标等表明，油酸10μL/L水平对黄瓜生长几乎没有负面影响，而油酸水平为100，500，1000μL/L则表现出一定的抑制效应。其中，1000μL/L水平中黄瓜的生长明显受到抑制。试验还表明，油酸对黄瓜幼苗没有表现出直接的生长刺激效应。     

木薯后期衰老对淀粉积累的影响

对新选056、南洋红、GR891、辐选01、华南124和新选048六个木薯品种生育后期抗衰老生理和淀粉积累特性进行研究。结果表明:不同木薯品种生育后期抗衰老生理与淀粉积累特性有明显差异,木薯后期茎叶生长状况对块根淀粉积累有明显影响,后期茎叶过早衰老或生长过旺对块根淀粉积累都不利。对抗衰老能力最强的是华南124,其次是辐选01和新选048,抗衰老能力最弱的是南洋红。其中新选056、南洋红、GR891、辐选01、华南124和新选048生育后期叶片过氧化物酶活性分别为383.93△OD470/gFw.min,279.33△OD470/gFw.min,405.20△OD470/gFw.min,445.97△OD470/gFw.min,364.43△OD470/gFw.min和202.20△OD470/gFw.min;丙二醛含量分别为0.0178μmol/gFW,0.0189μmol/gFW,0.0237μmol/gFW,0.0153μmol/gFW,0.0128μmol/gFW和0.0140μmol/gFW;可溶性糖含量分别为0.74%,0.70%,1.02%,0.84%,1.12%和1.30%;自由水/束缚水比值分别为3.07,4.77,6.85,3.64,2.57和3.11;块根淀粉含量分别为29.6%,25.8%,32.8%,32.7%,25.6%和28.9%。     

大豆锈病初次侵染源调查及其作用分析

本调查基本确定了大豆锈病（Phakop-sora pachyrhiza syd）在南方的越冬范围为北纬23°55’以南；经综合分析锈病发生时期、锈病专性寄生性和气流传播特性、栽培葛、野生葛和大豆种植时期、生长季节、锈病发生实况与接种鉴定结果，基本确定南方的栽培葛（Pueraria lobata ohwi）和野葛（P．lobata（wild）ohwi）是大豆锈病病原菌的越冬寄主，其上发生的锈病是本地大豆锈病的主要初次侵染源之一；该区域发生的病原茵成为向北传播扩散的起始源；为今后大豆锈病的监测、预测预报与治理提供了可靠的依据。     

枸杞叶保健茶的研制

依据枸杞叶所含的营养成分和保健功能因子介绍了枸杞叶的保健作用.以枸杞叶为原料,开发研制具有保健作用的枸杞叶保健茶.探索了枸杞叶保健茶的加工工艺.