A multivariable prognostic model for equine colic patients

A survey of 1965 equine colic cases was conducted from August 1985 to July 1986 ten equine referral hospitals located througout the U.S.A. Two-thirds of the cases were randomly selected for model development (1336), while the remaining cases (629) were used only for subsequent validation of the model. The following outcomes were defined: (1) died or killed prior to discharge from the hospital; or (2) alive at the time of discharge. Only variables which were significant (P<0.05) in an initial bivariate screening procedure and for which there were less than 400 missing values were considered in the multivariable modelling. A multivariable logistic regression model was constructed using a stepwise algorithm. The model used 666 cases and included the following variables: peripheral pulse (normal or weak), pulse rate, surgical or medical treatment, packed cell volume, self-inflicted trauma (absent or present) and capillary refill time. For each horse in the validation data set which had the appropriate variables recorded (n=335), the estimated expected probability of death (expected value) was calculated using the logistic regression equation. Using Bayes theorem, the post-test probability was calculated from the expected value (an estimate of the test odds) and the present probability (the case-fatality rate at each institution). Nomograms of predictive values for different case-fatality rates and expected values were constructed. Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistics indicated that the model fitted the model data set well but the validation set poorly. However, when the observed case-fatality rates were compared with the average post-test probabilities for 0.10 increments of post-test probability, qualitatively, the model's performance was better.     

永失吾爱——痛悼爱犬警威

爱犬警威,服役于2006年1月10日,在一次巡逻任务中因高温中暑,经抢救无效死亡。虽时光飞逝,但仍无法忘却对爱犬的思念,故撰写此文以记之。     

Qualitative risk assessment in a data-scarce environment: a model to assess the impact of control measures on spread of African Swine Fever

In the absence of data, qualitative risk assessment frameworks have proved useful to assess risks associated with animal health diseases. As part of a scientific opinion for the European Commission (EC) on African Swine Fever (ASF), a working group of the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) assessed the risk of ASF remaining endemic in Trans Caucasus Countries (TCC) and the Russian Federation (RF) and the risk of ASF becoming endemic in the EU if disease were introduced. The aim was to develop a tool to evaluate how current control or preventive measures mitigate the risk of spread and giving decision makers the means to review how strengthening of surveillance and control measures would mitigate the risk of disease spread. Based on a generic model outlining disease introduction, spread and endemicity in a region, the impact of risk mitigation measures on spread of disease was assessed for specific risk questions. The resulting hierarchical models consisted of key steps containing several sub-steps. For each step of the risk pathways risk estimates were determined by the expert group based on existing data or through expert opinion elicitation. Risk estimates were combined using two different combination matrices, one to combine estimates of independent steps and one to combine conditional probabilities. The qualitative risk assessment indicated a moderate risk that ASF will remain endemic in current affected areas in the TCC and RF and a high risk of spread to currently unaffected areas. If introduced into the EU, ASF is likely to be controlled effectively in the production sector with high or limited biosecurity. In the free range production sector, however, there is a moderate risk of ASF becoming endemic due to wild boar contact, non-compliance with animal movement bans, and difficult access to all individual pigs upon implementation of control measures. This study demonstrated the advantages of a systematic framework to assist an expert panel to carry out a risk assessment as it helped experts to disassociate steps in the risk pathway and to overcome preconceived notions of final risk estimates. The approach presented here shows how a qualitative risk assessment framework can address animal diseases with complexity in their spread and control measures and how transparency of the resulting estimates was achieved.     

Physiological but not morphological adjustments along latitudinal gradients in a human commensal species,the Eurasian tree sparrow

Human commensal species take advantage of anthropogenic conditions that are less likely to be challenged by the selective pressures of natural environments. Their morphological and physiological phenotypes can therefore dissociate from habitat characteristics. Understanding how these species adjust their morphological and physiological traits across latitudinal gradients is fundamental to uncovering the eco-physiological strategies underlying coping mechanisms. Here, we studied morphological traits in breeding Eurasian tree sparrows (ETSs; Passer montanus) among low-latitude (Yunnan and Hunan) and middle-latitude (Hebei) localities in China. We then compared body mass; lengths of bill, tarsometatarsus, wing, total body, and tail feather; and baseline and capture stress-induced levels of plasma corticosterone (CORT) and the metabolites including glucose (Glu), total triglyceride (TG), free fatty acid (FFA), total protein, and uric acid (UA). None of the measured morphological parameters varied with latitude except in the Hunan population, which demonstrated longer bills than those in other populations. Stress-induced CORT levels significantly exceeded baseline levels and decreased with increasing latitude, but total integrated CORT levels did not vary with latitude. Capture stress-induced significantly increased Glu levels and decreased TG levels, independent of site. However, the Hunan population had significantly higher baseline CORT, baseline and stress-induced FFA levels, but lower UA levels, which differed from other populations. Our results suggest that rather than morphological adjustments, physiological adjustments are mainly involved in coping mechanisms for middle-latitude adaptation in ETSs. It is worth investigating whether other avian species also exhibit such dissociation from external morphological designs while depending on physiological adjustments.     

一起经营、加工病死动物案的查处

本文对一起经营、加工病死动物案的案件来源、调查经过及结果、案件移交、处理结果进行了梳理,认定本案性质较为严重,总体上违法事实清楚,证据确凿,定性准确,处理适当,程序合法。本文从执法主体认定,物证流失,动物卫生监督机构责任规避等作了分析和讨论,认为执法人员应加强法律法规学习,提高监督执法水平,以期为官方兽医办理此类案件提供借鉴。     

假臭草幼苗生长对水氮耦合效应的响应

为揭示入侵植物假臭草(Praxelis clematidea)幼苗生长对不同水、氮养分耦合模式的响应机制,探讨其与入侵性的关系,以假臭草为供试材料,设计3个供水量水平、4个供氮量水平共12个处理,比较假臭草的形态、生物量分配和叶绿素含量等生长指标对不同水氮耦合效应的可塑性反应。结果显示,假臭草幼苗生长受水氮耦合影响显著(P0.05),在适宜水分和养分条件,如中水中氮处理(沙土饱和含水量60%~70%,供水量60 mL·kg~(-1),供氮量0.30g·kg~(-1))处理下,假臭草幼苗株高、茎粗、叶面积、总根长度和根表面积等根、茎、叶形态指标表现较好,生物量积累较多,植株生长较好。低水处理(沙土饱和含水量30%~40%,供水量30 mL·kg~(-1))和高水处理(沙土饱和含水量90%~100%,供水量90mL·kg~(-1))的各个氮含量处理的假臭草植株的各项根、茎、叶形态及生物量指标均差于中水处理。假臭草叶绿素对氮素较为敏感,随着氮素增加其积累量也相应增多。研究结果表明,假臭草入侵植物喜好一定的水、氮环境,过多或不足的水分或养分则不利于假臭草的生长发育,但仍有一定的分布,这与其入侵性密切相关。     

Clinical and electrocardiographic presentations of transient trifascicular block in three cats

This report describes transient trifascicular block in three cats presented with lethargy and inappetence, and elevated cardiac troponin I concentrations.The electrocardiogram (ECG) of cat 1 showed a sinus rhythm with pronounced first-degree atrioventricular (AV) block, right bundle branch block, and left anterior fascicular block. The ECG of cat 2 showed truncular left bundle branch block alternating with left anterior fascicular block coupled with prolonged PR intervals, second-degree heart block, and paroxysmal third-degree AV block. The ECG of cat 3 showed first-degree AV block with concomitant right bundle branch block. The diagnosis of trifascicular block was made when paroxysmal third-degree AV block was documented.All cats recovered with medical management within weeks. Each cat resumed a sinus rhythm. Elevated cardiac troponin I concentrations suggested myocarditis that improved.     

黔东南州林下鸡高致病性禽流感免疫程序研究

为了探索林下鸡高致病性禽流感免疫程序,在黔东南州的老寨、龙氏、平寨3个林下鸡场随机选择50只雏鸡,采用血凝抑制试验分别对母源抗体、首次免疫抗体、第2次免疫抗体、第3次免疫抗体的变化规律进行检测,研究出黔东南州林下鸡高致病性禽流感的免疫程序,即15日龄进行首次免疫,42～45日龄进行第2次免疫,135～140日龄进行第3次免疫,以后每隔4个月免疫1次。     

海南美兰机场动物卫生监督检查机制

介绍了美兰机场省际动物卫生监督检查站的机构设置、人员配备、监管依据、工作程序、联防联控等监督检查机制。     

水貂阿留申病毒实验室检测方法研究进展

水貂阿留申病是一种在世界范围内广泛流行的、严重危害水貂养殖业的病毒性免疫抑制性传染病。本文介绍了水貂阿留申病毒的分离与鉴定、血清学和分子生物学最新实验室检测方法研究进展,以期为防控本病提供参考。