Prediction of Major Agricultural Fruits Production in Pakistan by Using an Econometric Analysis and Machine Learning Technique

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to use an econometric analysis to investigate the relationship between agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) and variables such as apple, citrus, pears, grape and banana in Pakistan; data were explored from 1980 to 2015; we used time series data collected from secondary sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Year Books and the Economic Survey of Pakistan. Data were analyzed by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, and results were interpreted by using the Johansen co-integration test. The machine learning technique was used to examine and predict the future agricultural productivity in Pakistan. We found that output of banana, citrus and pears had a positive and significant influence on AGDP, whereas apples and grapes had a negative but insignificant influence on AGDP.     

Antiparasitic activity of the medicinal plant Dillenia suffruticosa against the marine leech Zeylanicobdella arugamensis (Hirudinea) and its phytochemical composition

Zeylanicobdella arugamensis (Annelida: Hirudinea), a marine parasitic leech, is currently affecting different species of cultured groupers, hybrid groupers, snappers and sea bass in Malaysia. Dillenia suffruticosa (Dilleniaceae), a medicinal plant found in Sabah, has been selected in our experiment to kill the leeches as a natural control method. The leech‐infested hybrid groupers were collected from aquaculture facilities, and the isolated leeches were challenged against methanol extract of D. suffruticosa leaves. The experiment was carried out using various concentrations of the extracts such as 25, 50 and 100 mg/ml. The methanol extract showed significant antiparasitic activity against Z. arugamensis with 100% mortality at a concentration of 100 mg/ml in 14.39 ± 3.75 min., followed by 50 and 25 mg/ml in 32.97 ± 9.29 and 41.77 ± 5.40 min., respectively. The phytochemical composition of the extract was determined using GC‐MS analysis to understand the nature of the principal compounds responsible for its antiparasitic properties. The leaves of D. suffruticosa demonstrated the presence of different bioactive compounds of various natures with varying percentages. Thus, it could be revealed that the methanol extract of D. suffruticosa mainly contains vital phytochemical compounds and showed an effective antiparasitic activity against the harmful leeches of hybrid groupers.     

Patterns of resistance to organophosphate insecticides in field populations of Helicoverpa armigera in Pakistan

The pattern of organophosphate resistance in field populations of Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner) was monitored in Pakistan from 1994 through 1997 using an IRAC leaf-dip method. Generally, moderate to high resistance was found to an orthophosphorate, monocrotophos and to a dithiophosphorate, ethion. Resistance to the commonly used thiophosphorates, chlorpyrifos and profenofos, was very low during 1994 and 1995 but showed an upward trend during 1996 and 1997. Resistance factors to the other thiophosphorates such as quinalphos, parathion-methyl, methamidophos and triazophos remained very low. Baseline lethal concentrations for ethion, methamidophos and triazophos were at least four to five times higher than those for the other organophosphates tested, suggesting their low intrinsic efficacy against H armigera. © 1999 Society of Chemical Industry     

Stability of RAPD markers for determining cultivar specific DNA profiles in rye (Secale cereale L.)

Summary Cultivar specific DNA profiles in rye were revealed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) using randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) sequences. Ten base primers were used for the amplification of genomic DNA of rye cultivars by PCR. RAPD analysis was found to be reproducible among samples between PCR runs. When amplification profiles of different rye cultivars were compared using various primers, the overall profiles were cultivar specific. However, not all primers revealed polymorphisms. These primers appear to amplify conserved sequences in all rye cultivars. Intracultivar studies were conducted on two of the cultivars. In the cultivar Imperial, no polymorphisms were observed among ten plants analyzed with five primers. In the cultivar Balboa, polymorphisms were observed among fifty plants with four of the ten primers analyzed. Despite the small amount of intracultivar variability, RAPD analysis has the potential to be a rapid and reliable method of cultivar identification in this outcrossing species.     

Nutritional significance of amino acids,vitamins and minerals as nutraceuticals in poultry production and health – a comprehensive review

Nutraceuticals have gained immense importance in poultry science recently considering the nutritional and beneficial health effects of their constituents. Besides providing nutritional requirements to birds, nutraceuticals have beneficial pharmacological effects, for example, they help in establishing normal physiological health status, prevent diseases and thereby improve production performance. Nutraceuticals include amino acids, vitamins, minerals, enzymes, etc. which are important for preventing oxidative stress, regulating the immune response and maintaining normal physiological, biochemical and homeostatic mechanisms. Nutraceuticals help in supplying nutrients in balanced amounts for supporting the optimal growth performance in modern poultry flocks, and as a dietary supplement can reduce the use of antibiotics. The application of antibiotic growth enhancers in poultry leads to the propagation of antibiotic-resistant microbes and drug residues; therefore, they have been restricted in many countries. Thus, there is a demand for natural feed additives that lead to the same growth enhancement without affecting the health. Nutraceuticals substances have an essential role in the development of the animals’ normal physiological functions and in protecting them against infectious diseases. In this review, the uses of amino acids, vitamins and minerals as well as their mode of action in growth promotion and elevation of immune system are discussed.     

Floristic composition and ecological gradient analyses of the Liakot Forests in the Kalam region of District Swat,Pakistan

Kalam Kohistan is a dry,temperate hilly region in the Hindu Raj Series of the Greater Hindu Kush Mountains with diverse forests.As plant distribution and composition is expression of a range of various environmental variables,ecological and floristic attributes of vegetation in the Laikot Forests were therefore evaluated via consecutive explorative trips.These forests have not been evaluated ecologically before due to harsh climatic conditions and issues of accessibility and the study in hand is one of the first in its nature.Quantitative ecological techniques were used to sample forest vegetation and identify species in quadrats of 2 m×2 m for herbs,5 m×5 m for shrubs and 10 m×10 m for trees.All the data of 195 plant species and environmental factors were analyzed via Two-way Cluster Analysis and Canonical Correspondence Analysis using PCORD and CANOCO software.Among 195 plant species from 63 families were 27 species of Asteraceae,the most-speciose family,followed by Poaceae(20 spp.).The dominant life form was therophyte(86 spp.;44%share),followed by phanerophyte(41 spp.;21%share).For the leaf size spectrum,most prevalent was nanophyll(73 spp.;44%)followed by microphyll(66 spp.,34%)and mesophyll(44 spp.;23%).Calcium carbonate,pH,potassium,sand,silt,organic matter,slope aspect and grazing significantly influenced species composition,distribution and habitat.The floristic variation in the region was diverse due to elevational and aspect gradients and thus devided into three zones.This vegetation zonation can be utilized for forest management,species and habitat conservation.Both in situ and ex situ conservation of threatened plant species may improve their conservation status in future if address properly.     

Genome-wide association analysis for stripe rust resistance in spring wheat(Triticum aestivum L.) germplasm

Stripe rust is a continuous threat to wheat crop all over the world. It causes considerable yield losses in wheat crop every year. Continuous deployment of adult plant resistance(APR) genes in newly developing wheat cultivars is the most judicious strategy to combat this disease. Herein, we dissected the genetics underpinning stripe rust resistance in Pakistani wheat germplasm. An association panel of 94 spring wheat genotypes was phenotyped for two years to score the infestation of stripe rust on each accession and was scanned with 203 polymorphic SSRs. Based on D' measure, linkage disequilibrium(LD) exhibited between loci distant up to 45 c M. Marker-trait associations(MTAs) were determined using mixed linear model(MLM). Total 31 quantitative trait loci(QTLs) were observed on all 21 wheat chromosomes. Twelve QTLs were newly discovered as well as 19 QTLs and 35 previously reported Yr genes were validated in Pakistani wheat germplasm. The major QTLs were QYr.uaf.2 AL and QYr.uaf.3 BS(PVE, 11.9%). Dissection of genes from the newly observed QTLs can provide new APR genes to improve genetic resources for APR resistance in wheat crop.     

Molecular simulations of Taxawallin I inside classical taxol binding site of β-tubulin

A new taxoid Taxawallin I (1) along with two known taxoids (2-3) were isolated from methanolic bark extract of Taxus wallichiana Zucc. Structural characterization was confirmed by mass and NMR spectral techniques. Taxawallin I exhibited significant in-vitro anticancer activity against HepG2, A498, NCI-H226 and MDR 2780AD cancer lines. Tubulin binding assay was performed to assess its tubulin binding activity. Molecular docking analysis was performed to study the potential binding mode inside the taxol binding site of β-tubulin.     

Pharmacokinetics of thymoquinone in layer chickens following oral and intravenous administration

Thymoquinone (TQ) is the major constituent of Nigella sativa and known to possess a variety of pharmacological effects. This study was designed to evaluate the pharmacokinetic profile of TQ following oral (PO) and intravenous (IV) administration in layer chickens. The layer chickens were equally divided into two groups (six chickens in each group, total 12 chickens), and TQ was administered via PO and IV routes. For PO route, the dose was 20 mg/kg b.w. and for IV route, 5 mg/kg b.w. was administered, respectively. A sensitive and accurate High‐Performance Liquid Chromatography (HPLC) technique was validated for the quantification of TQ from plasma. The limit of detection (LOD) and limit of quantification (LOQ) were 0.02 µg/ml and 0.05 µg/ml, respectively with >80% recovery. Maximum plasma concentration (C_max) following PO and IV administration was 8.805 and 4.497 µg/ml, respectively, while time to reach at maximum concentration (T_max) was 1 and 0.1 hr, respectively. The elimination half‐lives were recorded as 1.02 and 0.978 hr, whereas the mean residence times were 1.79 and 1.036 hr following both PO and IV administration, respectively. The 85% PO bioavailability was indicative that TQ could be used for various therapeutic purposes in layer chickens.     

Effects of sludge on germination and initial growth performance of Leucaena leucocephala seedlings in the nursery

A study was carried out to determine the influence of different types of sludges （municipal, industrial and residential） on field germination, growth and nodulation of L. leucocephala seedlings in the nursery. Before sowing of seeds, different combinations of sludges were incorporated with the nutrient deficient natural forest soils. Field germination, nodulation status and physical growth parameters of seedlings （shoot and root length, vigor index, collar diameter, leaf number, fresh and dry weight of shoot and root and total dry biomass increment） were recorded after three and six months of seed sowing. Field germination, nodulation status and growth parameters were varied significantly in the soil amended with sludges in comparison to control. The highest number of nodule was recorded from soil amended with residential sludge （ 1：1 ） and highest fresh and dry nodule weight was also found from the same combination in both three and six month old seedlings. In case of growth parameters, the highest growth was recorded from soil and residential sludge （ 1：1 ） combination compared to control. From the study, it can be recommended that soil amended with residential sludge （ 1：1 ） provide better field germination, growth and nodule formation of L. leucocephala in degraded soil.