Roles of bootstrap resampling,measure of central tendency,and method for calculating thermal units when developing phenology models for pest management

The successful development of phenology models from field studies depends on many factors, some of which are entirely under the control of pest managers. For example, one such factor is the choice of method for calculating thermal units. In this study, we have demonstrated that four methods for calculating thermal units provided for acceptable predictions of one phenological event of one insect species, while another method for calculating thermal units did not. The measure of central tendency (mean or median) that is used to estimate lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations is another factor that pest managers can control when developing phenology models from field studies. Here, we show that predictions that were made when using phenology models based on median lower developmental temperatures and median required thermal summations were superior to predictions that were made when using phenology models based on mean lower developmental temperatures and mean required thermal summations. The use of bootstrap vs. non-bootstrap estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations is yet another factor that pest managers can control when developing phenology models from field studies. In this study, we found that calculating and using bootstrap estimates of lower developmental temperatures and required thermal summations in phenology models did not improve the predictions of one phenological event for one insect species. The implications of these and other findings are discussed.     

Spatial Variability of Turbulent Mixing in the Abyssal Ocean

Ocean microstructure data show that turbulent mixing in the deep Brazil Basin of the South Atlantic Ocean is weak at all depths above smooth abyssal plains and the South American Continental Rise. The diapycnal diffusivity there was estimated to be less than or approximately equal to 0.1 x 10(-4) meters squared per second. In contrast, mixing rates are large throughout the water column above the rough Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and the diffusivity deduced for the bottom-most 150 meters exceeds 5 x 10(-4) meters squared per second. Such patterns in vertical mixing imply that abyssal circulations have complex spatial structures that are linked to the underlying bathymetry.     

Current distribution of sarcoptic mange in wombats

Objective To determine the distribution and prevalence of sarcoptic mange in wombats, particularly the common wombat ( Vombatus ursinus ).
Design Questionnaire survey in two parts.
Procedure Questionnaires were distributed to biologists, rangers, animal carers and naturalists. Part 1 of the questionnaire aimed to determine the present distribution of sarcoptic mange in wombats (103 responses). Part 2 invited respondents to assess the prevalence of sarcoptic mange in wombats over a 3 month period (four responses). Information on wombats from 66 localities was received. Each locality represented an area of about 2500 km².
Results Mange was observed at 93% of localities surveyed and Sarcoptes scabiei was present in common wombats at 52% of localities. Sarcoptic mange was highly prevalent (22%) in two common wombat populations in Victoria. Anecdotal evidence suggested that mange epizootics are sporadic, cause significant morbidity and mortality and have a substantial effect on local abundance. The respondents did not report sarcoptic mange in either northern hairy-nosed wombats ( Lasiorhinus krefftii ) or southern hairy-nosed wombats ( Lasiorhinus latifrons ).
Conclusions Sarcoptic mange occurs in common wombat populations throughout the range of the common wombat including Tasmania and Flinders Island. While mange epizootics are sporadic, they have the potential to threaten the long-term survival of small, remnant populations.     

Confirmation of spatial patterns and temperature effects in Bluetongue virus serotype-8 transmission in NW-Europe from the 2007 reported case data

Two separate analyses were carried out to understand the epidemiology of Bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in 2007 in North West Europe: First, the temporal change in transmission rates was compared to the evolution of temperature during that season. Second, we evaluated the spatio-temporal dynamics of newly reported outbreaks, to estimate a spatial transmission kernel. For both analyses, the approach as used before in analysing the 2006 BTV-8 epidemic had to be adapted in order to take into account the fact that the 2007 epidemic was not a newly arising epidemic, but one advancing from whereto it had already spread in 2006. We found that within the area already affected by the 2006 outbreak, the pattern of newly infected farms in 2007 cannot be explained by between-farm transmission, but rather by local re-emergence of the virus throughout that region. This indicates that persistence through winter was ubiquitous for BTV-8. Just like in 2006, we also found that the temperature at which the infection starts to spread lies close to 15 °C. Finally, we found that the shape of the transmission kernel is in line with the one from the 2006 epidemic. In conclusion, despite the substantial differences between 2006 and 2007 in temperature patterns (2006 featured a heat wave in July, whereas 2007 was more regular) and spatial epidemic extent, both the minimum temperature required for transmission and the transmission kernel were similar to those estimated for the 2006 outbreak, indicating that they are robust properties, suitable for extrapolation to other years and similar regions.     

Surface Deformation and Lower Crustal Flow in Eastern Tibet

Field observations and satellite geodesy indicate that little crustal shortening has occurred along the central to southern margin of the eastern Tibetan plateau since about 4 million years ago. Instead, central eastern Tibet has been nearly stationary relative to southeastern China, southeastern Tibet has rotated clockwise without major crustal shortening, and the crust along portions of the eastern plateau margin has been extended. Modeling suggests that these phenomena are the result of continental convergence where the lower crust is so weak that upper crustal deformation is decoupled from the motion of the underlying mantle. This model also predicts east-west extension on the high plateau without convective removal of Tibetan lithosphere and without eastward movement of the crust east of the plateau.     

The structure of the upper atmosphere of mars: In situ accelerometer measurements from mars global surveyor

The Mars Global Surveyor (MGS) z-axis accelerometer has obtained over 200 vertical structures of thermospheric density, temperature, and pressure, ranging from 110 to 170 kilometers, compared to only three previous such vertical structures. In November 1997, a regional dust storm in the Southern Hemisphere triggered an unexpectedly large thermospheric response at mid-northern latitudes, increasing the altitude of thermospheric pressure surfaces there by as much as 8 kilometers and indicating a strong global thermospheric response to a regional dust storm. Throughout the MGS mission, thermospheric density bulges have been detected on opposite sides of the planet near 90 degreesE and 90 degreesW, in the vicinity of maximum terrain heights. This wave 2 pattern may be caused by topographically-forced planetary waves propagating up from the lower atmosphere.     

Estimating the mass of asteroid 253 mathilde from tracking data during the NEAR flyby

The terminal navigation of the Near Earth Asteroid Rendezvous (NEAR) spacecraft during its close flyby of asteroid 253 Mathilde involved coordinated efforts to determine the heliocentric orbits of the spacecraft and Mathilde and then to determine the relative trajectory of the spacecraft with respect to Mathilde. The gravitational perturbation of Mathilde on the passing spacecraft was apparent in the spacecraft tracking data. As a result of the accurate targeting achieved, these data could be used to determine Mathilde's mass as 1.033 (+/- 0.044) x 10(20) grams. Coupled with a volume estimate provided by the NEAR imaging team, this mass suggests a low bulk density for Mathilde of 1.3 grams per cubic centimeter.     

A review of thermal stress in cattle

Cattle control body temperature in a narrow range over varying climatic conditions. Endogenous body heat is generated by metabolism, digestion and activity. Radiation is the primary external source of heat transfer into the body of cattle. Cattle homeothermy uses behavioural and physiological controls to manage radiation, convection, conduction, and evaporative exchange of heat between the body and the environment, noting that evaporative mechanisms almost exclusively transfer body heat to the environment. Cattle control radiation by shade seeking (hot) and shelter (cold) and by huddling or standing further apart, noting there are intrinsic breed and age differences in radiative transfer potential. The temperature gradient between the skin and the external environment and wind speed (convection) determines heat transfer by these means. Cattle control these mechanisms by managing blood flow to the periphery (physiology), by shelter-seeking and standing/lying activity in the short term (behaviourally) and by modifying their coats and adjusting their metabolic rates in the longer term (acclimatisation). Evaporative heat loss in cattle is primarily from sweating, with some respiratory contribution, and is the primary mechanism for dissipating excess heat when environmental temperatures exceed skin temperature (~36°C). Cattle tend to be better adapted to cooler rather than hotter external conditions, with Bos indicus breeds more adapted to hotter conditions than Bos taurus. Management can minimise the risk of thermal stress by ensuring appropriate breeds of suitably acclimatised cattle, at appropriate stocking densities, fed appropriate diets (and water), and with access to suitable shelter and ventilation are better suited to their expected farm environment.     

The Quantum Event of Oceanic Crustal Accretion: Impacts of Diking at Mid-Ocean Ridges

Seafloor diking-eruptive events represent the irreducible, quantum events of upper oceanic crustal accretion. They record events by which a large portion of the oceanic crust has formed through geological history. Since 1993, the U.S. Navy's real-time Sound Surveillance System has allowed location of ongoing acoustic signatures of dike emplacement and basalt eruptions at ridge crests in the northeast Pacific. These diking-eruptive events trigger a sequence of related, rapidly evolving physical, chemical, and biological processes. Magmatic volatiles released during these events may provide nutrients for communities of subseafloor microorganisms, some of which thrive in high-temperature anaerobic environments. Many of the organisms identified from these systems are Archaea. If microorganisms can thrive in the water-saturated pores and cracks within deep, volcanically active portions of our planet, other hydrothermally active planets may harbor similar life forms.