Expert judgement in a risk assessment model for Salmonella spp. in pork: The performance of different weighting schemes

A structured expert judgement study was carried out in order to obtain input parameters for a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model. This model aimed to estimate the risk of human Salmonella infections associated with the consumption of minced pork meat. Judgements of 11 experts were used to derive subjective probability density functions (PDFs) to quantify the uncertainty on the model input parameters.The performance of experts as probability assessors was measured by the experts’ ability to correctly and precisely provide estimates for a set of seed variables (=variables from the experts’ area of expertise for which the true values were known to the analyst). Subsequently different weighting schemes or “decision makers” (DMs) were applied using Cooke's classical model in order to obtain combined PDFs as a weighted linear combination of the expert's individual PDFs.The aim of this study was to compare the performance of four DMs namely the equal weight DM (each expert's opinion received equal weight), the user weight DM (weights are determined by the expert's self-perceived level of expertise) and two performance-based DMs: the global weight DM and the item weight DM. Weights in the performance-based DMs were calculated based on the expert's calibration and information performance as measured on the set of seed variables.The item weight DM obtained the highest performance with a calibration score of 0.62 and an information score of 0.52, as compared to the other DMs. The weights of the performance-based DMs outperformed those of the best expert in the panel. The correlation between the scores for self-rating of expertise and the weights based on the experts’ performance on the calibration variables was low and not significant (r = 0.37, p = 0.13).The applied classical model provided a rational basis to use the combined distributions obtained by the item weight DM as input in the QMRA model since this DM yielded generally more informative distributions for the variables of interest than those obtained by the equal weight and user weight DM. Attention should be paid to find adequate and relevant seed variables, since this is important for the validation of the results of the weighting scheme.     

Cyclopropenylidenes: from interstellar space to an isolated derivative in the laboratory

Like many of the molecular species that have been detected in the interstellar medium, the singlet carbene cyclopropenylidene (C3H2) has been presumed to be too unstable to isolate in the laboratory. However, by appending pi-electron-donating amino groups to the triangular skeleton, we prepared a cyclopropenylidene derivative that is stable at room temperature. In contrast to previously isolated carbenes, this compound does not require a heteroatom adjacent to the electron-deficient carbon to confer stability. Despite the presence of amino groups, the geometric parameters of the cyclic skeleton, revealed by x-ray crystallography, are only slightly perturbed relative to those of the calculated structure of unsubstituted cyclopropenylidene. Stable cyclopropenylidene derivatives might thus serve as models for a better understanding of the formation of carbon-bearing molecules in the interstellar medium.     

Evaluation of the oestrogenic potential of oestrone and bisphenol-A on the reproduction of Astyanax bimaculatus males after subacute exposure

Fish Physiology and Biochemistry - In the last decades, oestrogenic compounds have often been reported in environmentally relevant concentrations in aquatic environments around the world. Most...     

AID-driven deletion causes immunoglobulin heavy chain locus suicide recombination in B cells

Remodeling of immunoglobulin genes by activation-induced deaminase (AID) is required for affinity maturation and class-switch recombination in mature B lymphocytes. In the immunoglobulin heavy chain locus, these processes are predominantly controlled by the 3' cis-regulatory region. We now show that this region is transcribed and undergoes AID-mediated mutation and recombination around phylogenetically conserved switchlike DNA repeats. Such recombination, which we term locus suicide recombination, deletes the whole constant region gene cluster and thus stops expression of the immunoglobulin of the B cell surface, which is critical for B cell survival. The frequency of this event is approaching that of class switching and makes it a potential regulator of B cell homeostasis.     

(+)-Catechin-aldehyde condensations: competition between acetaldehyde and glyoxylic acid

(+)-Catechin reaction with two aldehydes (acetaldehyde and glyoxylic acid) was studied in winelike model solution. The two aldehydes were reacted either individually or together with (+)-catechin and in molar excess. The reactions were followed by HLPC-UV and HPLC-ESI/MS to monitor (+)-catechin disappearance as well as dimer and polymer appearance. In all reactions a reaction order of close to 1 for (+)-catechin disappearance was observed. (+)-Catechin disappearance was slower in the presence of acetaldehyde (t(1/2) = 6.7 +/- 0.2 h) compared to glyoxylic acid (t(1/2) = 2.3 +/- 0.2 h). When the two aldehydes were reacted together, (+)-catechin disappearance was faster (t(1/2) = 2.2 +/- 0.5 h). When aldehydes were reacted separately, the dimer appearance was independent of the type of aldehyde used but the ethyl-bridged dimer disappearance was slower with acetaldehyde. When aldehydes were reacted together, the dimer appearance changed. Ethyl-bridged dimers appeared before carboxymethine-bridged dimers, and their disappearance occurred earlier. Copolymers containing both ethyl and carboxymethine bridges were also observed.     

Habitat selection of the Eurasian woodcock in winter in relation to earthworms availability

The Eurasian woodcock (Scolopax rusticola) is a game species experiencing high hunting pressure, long-term modifications of its habitats, and with questions regarding its current conservation status. Winter is a season of highest concentration of birds and hunting pressure but woodcock precise habitat requirements are poorly known. It is crucial to assess threats and to develop sustainable management options for the conservation of woodcock populations. During three consecutive winters, we monitored 65 individual woodcocks fitted with radio-tags in Brittany, France. Habitat selection was analysed using GIS and compositional analysis, in relation to vegetation types, soil variables (humus types) and the abundance of their main prey (earthworms). Woodcocks used different habitats diurnally and nocturnally, generally preferring areas with high earthworm biomass. Diurnal habitat selection in forests was associated with humus type (preference for mulls, rich in earthworms) and dense shrub strata (better protection). Hedges with a high density of trees and shrub were also important habitat. At night, grazed meadows were the preferred habitat, containing five times higher biomass of earthworms compared to cultivated fields. Sustainable management of populations requires protection and management of habitats that incorporates food and cover. Forestry practices should preserve rich humus types and coppices by choosing tree species that ameliorate the soil and soil tilling. Changes in landscapes and intensive agricultural practices are current threats to woodcock populations: destruction of hedges, decrease of permanent grazed meadows, impoverishment of soils fauna biomasses from ploughing and chemical applications. However, woodcocks may benefit from the recent development of set-asides, grass field-borders and simplified farm practices (no-tillage and direct sowing).