Multi-model comparison on the effects of climate change on tree species in the eastern U.S.: results from an enhanced niche model and process-based ecosystem and landscape models

Context

Species distribution models (SDM) establish statistical relationships between the current distribution of species and key attributes whereas process-based models simulate ecosystem and tree species dynamics based on representations of physical and biological processes. TreeAtlas, which uses DISTRIB SDM, and Linkages and LANDIS PRO, process-based ecosystem and landscape models, respectively, were used concurrently on four regional climate change assessments in the eastern Unites States.

Objectives

We compared predictions for 30 species from TreeAtlas, Linkages, and LANDIS PRO, using two climate change scenarios on four regions, to derive a more robust assessment of species change in response to climate change.

Methods

We calculated the ratio of future importance or biomass to current for each species, then compared agreement among models by species, region, and climate scenario using change classes, an ordinal agreement score, spearman rank correlations, and model averaged change ratios.

Results

Comparisons indicated high agreement for many species, especially northern species modeled to lose habitat. TreeAtlas and Linkages agreed the most but each also agreed with many species outputs from LANDIS PRO, particularly when succession within LANDIS PRO was simulated to 2300. A geographic analysis showed that a simple difference (in latitude degrees) of the weighted mean center of a species distribution versus the geographic center of the region of interest provides an initial estimate for the species’ potential to gain, lose, or remain stable under climate change.

Conclusions

This analysis of multiple models provides a useful approach to compare among disparate models and a more consistent interpretation of the future for use in vulnerability assessments and adaptation planning.

     

Selective silencing of foreign DNA with low GC content by the H-NS protein in Salmonella

Horizontal gene transfer plays a major role in microbial evolution. However, newly acquired sequences can decrease fitness unless integrated into preexisting regulatory networks. We found that the histone-like nucleoid structuring protein (H-NS) selectively silences horizontally acquired genes by targeting sequences with GC content lower than the resident genome. Mutations in hns are lethal in Salmonella unless accompanied by compensatory mutations in other regulatory loci. Thus, H-NS provides a previously unrecognized mechanism of bacterial defense against foreign DNA, enabling the acquisition of DNA from exogenous sources while avoiding detrimental consequences from unregulated expression of newly acquired genes. Characteristic GC/AT ratios of bacterial genomes may facilitate discrimination between a cell's own DNA and foreign DNA.     

Renal diseases of reptiles.

Renal disease is one of the most common problems in reptilian medicine. Herbivorous species seem to be more susceptible than carnivores. The causation may be multifactorial, and the signs are often nonspecific. Prevention is preferred to treatment, and a comprehensive health program, which includes quarantine, routine health screens during annual examinations, and necropsy examinations of all animals that die, is desirable.     

Defining the immune response to Ehrlichia species using murine models

Pathogenic bacteria belonging to the family Anaplasmataceae include species of the genera Ehrlichia and Anaplasma. Ehrlichia chaffeensis, first known as the causative agent of human monocytic ehrlichiosis, also infects several vertebrate hosts including white-tailed deer, dogs, coyotes and goats. E. chaffeensis is transmitted from the bite of an infected hard tick, such as Amblyomma americanum. E. chaffeensis and other tick-transmitted pathogens have adapted to both the tick and vertebrate host cell environments. Although E. chaffeensis persists in both vertebrate and tick hosts for long periods of time, little is known about that process. Immunological studies will be valuable in assessing how the pathogen persists in nature in both vertebrate and invertebrate hosts. Understanding the host immune response to the pathogen originating from dual host backgrounds is also important to develop effective methods of diagnosis, control and treatment. In this paper, we provide our perspective of the current understanding of the immune response against E. chaffeensis in relation to other related Anaplasmataceae pathogens.     

TB diagnosis in non-human primates: comparison of two interferon-gamma assays and the skin test for identification of Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection

To examine the effect of recombinant bovine interferon-gamma (rbIFN-gamma) on cattle persistently infected with bovine leukemia virus (BLV), BLV-infected cattle were inoculated intraperitoneally with IFN-gamma. All cattle were febrile after inoculation with IFN-gamma and then recovered within 48 h. Flow cytometric analysis showed that the numbers of CD4+ and CD8+ T cells were decreased for 2-3 days and then their numbers were recovered. The number of gammadelta T cells increased after the fever. In contrast, the number of IgM+ lymphocytes remained low for about 1 week. Moreover, the numbers of syncytia produced by peripheral blood lymphocytes decreased and remained low compared to that before IFN-gamma administration. These results suggest that IFN-gamma induces the up-regulation of gammadelta T cells, decreases the number of IgM+ lymphocytes and suppresses the growth of BLV in BLV-infected cattle in vivo.     

Molecular Mapping of the Stb4 Gene for Resistance to Septoria tritici Blotch in Wheat

ABSTRACT Breeding wheat for resistance is the most effective means to control Septoria tritici blotch (STB), caused by the ascomycete Mycosphaerella graminicola (anamorph Septoria tritici). At least eight genes that confer resistance to STB in wheat have been identified. Among them, the Stb4 locus from the wheat cv. Tadinia showed resistance to M. graminicola at both seedling and adult-plant stages. However, no attempt has been made to map the Stb4 locus in the wheat genome. A mapping population of 77 F10 recombinant-inbred lines (RILs) derived from a three-way cross between the resistant cv. Tadinia and the susceptible parent (Yecora Rojo x UC554) was evaluated for disease resistance and molecular mapping. The RILs were tested with Argentina isolate I 89 of M. graminicola for one greenhouse season in Brazil during 1999, with an isolate from Brazil (IPBr1) for one field season in Piracicaba (Brazil) during 2000, and with Indiana tester isolate IN95-Lafayette-1196-WW-1-4 in the greenhouse during 2000 and 2001. The ratio of resistant:susceptible RILs was 1:1 in all three tests, confirming the single-gene model for control of resistance to STB in Tadinia. However, the patterns of resistance and susceptibility were different between the Indiana isolate and those from South America. For example, the ratio of RILs resistant to both the Indiana and Argentina isolates, resistant to one but susceptible to the other, and susceptible to both isolates was approximately 1:1:1:1, indicating that Tadinia may contain at least two genes for resistance to STB. A similar pattern was observed between the Indiana and Brazil isolates. The gene identified with the Indiana tester isolate was assumed to be the same as Stb4, whereas that revealed by the South American isolates may be new. Bulked-segregant analysis was used to identify amplified fragment length polymorphism (AFLP) and microsatellite markers linked to the presumed Stb4 gene. The AFLP marker EcoRI-ACTG/MseI-CAAA5 and microsatellite Xgwm111 were closely linked to the Stb4 locus in coupling at distances of 2.1 and 0.7 centimorgans (cM), respectively. A flanking marker, AFLP EAGG/ M-CAT10, was 4 cM from Stb4. The Stb4 gene was in a potential supercluster of resistance genes near the centromere on the short arm of wheat chromosome 7D that also contained Stb5 plus five previously identified genes for resistance to Russian wheat aphid. The microsatellite marker Xgwm111 identified in this study may be useful for facilitating the transfer of Stb4 into improved cultivars of wheat.     

Evaluation of PCR,IEF and ELISA techniques for the detection and identification of potato cyst nematodes from field soil samples in England and Wales

Effective management of potato cyst nematodes (PCNs) requires simple, rapid and accurate identification and quantification of field populations. Soil samples from a survey of 484 fields in potato rotations in England and Wales were used to compare the identification and quantification of PCNs using IEF, PCR, ELISA and bait plant tests. The cyst counts and bait plant test revealed that 64.3% of field samples contained PCNs. Bait plant tests increased the detection rate of PCNs in field samples by 4–6.4%. This means that some infestations are cryptic and would not normally be detected by standard counts. IEF, PCR and ELISA methods distinguished between Globodera rostochiensis and G pallida and were able to register mixed populations; however they were not in full agreement. All methods suggested that G pallida is the dominant species in the field samples tested. The PCR results indicated that 66% of field samples contained pure G pallida, 8% contained pure G rostochiensis and 26% contained mixtures of the two species. Estimates of the relative process times taken per sample in the PCR, IEF and ELISA techniques are given. © 2001 Society of Chemical Industry     

Prospective evaluation of techniques for differentiating shoulder pathology as a source of forelimb lameness in medium and large breed dogs

Objective— To assess lameness evaluation, shoulder abduction angles, radiography, and ultrasonography for determining presence, location, and severity of forelimb pathology. Study Design— Prospective cohort study. Animals— Dogs ≥20 kg (n=30). Methods— Each dog was assigned lameness scores. Shoulder abduction angles were determined. Radiographs of shoulders and elbows were subjectively graded for pathology. One investigator unaware of dog history (lameness, radiographic findings) performed ultrasonographic assessment of shoulders with subjective grading of pathology. Another investigator unaware of dog history (lameness, radiographic, ultrasonographic findings) performed arthroscopic assessment of shoulders with subjective grading of pathology. Elbows were disarticulated and evaluated for gross pathology. Histologic pathology scoring of shoulder tissues was performed. Data were compared for differences among groups, sensitivities, specificities, positive and negative predictive values, and positive and negative likelihood ratios were calculated. Results— Twenty‐seven forelimbs were considered clinically normal, 26 had shoulder pathology, 5 had elbow pathology, and 2 had pathology of both the shoulder and elbow. Dogs with shoulder pathology were twice as likely to be lame compared with dogs with elbow pathology. Limbs with medial shoulder instability had significantly higher abduction angles than normal limbs and those with elbow pathology. Radiographs were clinically useful for diagnosing elbow, but not shoulder, pathology. Ultrasonography was clinically useful for diagnosing shoulder pathology other than instability. Abduction angles, ultrasonographic evaluation, and arthroscopic assessments had strong, significant correlations with reference standards. Conclusions— Clinically relevant diagnostic techniques yielded characteristic, repeatable differences in objective and subjective assessments for distinguishing presence, location, and severity of forelimb lameness in dogs. Clinical Relevance— The diagnostic approach to forelimb lameness in dogs should include shoulder pathology as a differential with multiple assessments used to determine the clinical cause of lameness.