Prediction of Major Agricultural Fruits Production in Pakistan by Using an Econometric Analysis and Machine Learning Technique

ABSTRACT

The aim of this study was to use an econometric analysis to investigate the relationship between agricultural gross domestic product (AGDP) and variables such as apple, citrus, pears, grape and banana in Pakistan; data were explored from 1980 to 2015; we used time series data collected from secondary sources, including the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Year Books and the Economic Survey of Pakistan. Data were analyzed by using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) method and Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) test, and results were interpreted by using the Johansen co-integration test. The machine learning technique was used to examine and predict the future agricultural productivity in Pakistan. We found that output of banana, citrus and pears had a positive and significant influence on AGDP, whereas apples and grapes had a negative but insignificant influence on AGDP.     

油炸糯米糕营养效应评价及其对血脂健康的影响

为研究食用油炸糯米糕的整体营养健康效应及其对血脂健康的影响,自制纯油炸糯米糕和蒸糯米糕,选用健康雄性小白鼠,分别用油炸糯米糕外壳层、中间层、油炸糯米糕全糕及蒸糯米糕进行6周连续灌胃试验,饲料、葡萄糖作为对照组。采用模拟BDI-GS体系评价法进行营养效价、健康效应评定及试剂盒法对小鼠血脂指标测定,并计算相应指标数据,做图对比分析。结果表明,外壳层组平均日采食量为（5.70 ± 0.56）g,其余各组为6.80 g左右,食用油炸外壳层组的小鼠采食量及体重显著下降;营养健康方面,油炸糯米糕和蒸糯米糕相比无显著差异,各试验样品的累加积分均大于8.0,基本益于机体整体营养和健康;血脂方面,油炸糯米糕全糕会提高小鼠血脂中总胆固醇（TC）和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）含量,油炸糯米糕外壳层会提高总胆固醇（TC）、甘油三酯（TG）和低密度脂蛋白胆固醇（LDL-C）含量。     

Synthesis and Characterization of Aqueous Chitosan-polyurethanes Dispersion for Textile Applications with Multipurpose Performance Profile

As the use of high performance textiles has grown, the need for chemical finishes to provide the fabric properties required in the special applications has grown accordingly. In this project, a series of water dispersible polyurethanes dispersion (CS-PUs) with multipurpose performance profile was developed using isophorone diisocyanate (IPDI), polyethylene glycol (PEG), 2,2-dimethylol propionic acid (DMPA) and chitosan (CS) for textile applications. In two step synthesis process, NCO functional PU prepolymers prepared by reacting IPDI, PEG, and DMPA were extended with varying molar quantities of chitosan followed by structural characterization through FTIR. The prepared CS-PU dispersions were applied onto the dyed and printed poly-cotton blend fabrics. The performance behavior of the treated fabric in terms of crease recovery, tear strength, tensile strength, and antibacterial properties was evaluated by applying standard test methods. These investigations show that the CS-PU dispersions can be applied as antibacterial textile finishes with significant improvement in the physical and mechanical properties of poly-cotton fabrics.     

Common ragweed: An emerging threat for sunflower production and human health in Turkey

Common ragweed invasion poses serious risks to human health, biodiversity and agricultural production throughout the world. Although ragweed has an enormous potential to expand its range in Turkey, studies on ragweed have only concentrated on the Black Sea region. An exploratory survey was conducted to observe the level of ragweed occurrence on the nodes of predecided 10 × 10 km grids in the Thrace region of Turkey. Ragweed populations were observed in 44 out of 129 sites in a wide range of habitats, including roadsides, pastures, agricultural fields and non‐agricultural areas. The highest levels of ragweed infestation were recorded in the agricultural fields, followed by the roadsides. The most‐invaded crop was sunflower. The sunflower fields had the highest ragweed coverage as well and invasion even resulted in crop failure alongside the field borders. A spatial analysis of the data indicated that ragweed exhibited an aggregated pattern over the Thrace region. Ragweed distribution was not associated with the characteristics of the soils, which had a varying range of pH, electrical conductivity and texture. The results revealed that ragweed invasion can arise as a serious weed problem, interfering with the sustainability of sunflower production in Thrace and other sunflower‐producing regions of the country. A high degree of ragweed infestation also will contribute to the pollen level counts for the most crowded cities in the region, posing a serious danger to human health.     

Genetic Variation in Cadmium Accumulation and Tolerance among Wheat Cultivars at the Seedling Stage

Exploitation of genetic differences to select wheat cultivars’ pollution-safe from cadmium (Cd) contamination requires better understanding of Cd uptake and translocation patterns. For this purpose, 15 wheat cultivars were grown in nutrient solution and exposed to four levels of Cd, i.e., 0, 15, 30, and 45 µM. The plants were harvested after 2 weeks of Cd exposure. Root and shoot relative dry matter (DM) was decreased in most of the cultivars, but some cultivars did not exhibit any toxic symptoms. The lowest Cd concentration in shoots was recorded for Lasani-2008 and Iqbal-2000 while the highest for Sehar-2006 and Inqlab-91. Both root absorption and translocation accounted for regulating Cd concentration in shoots. There was no relationship between relative DM and Cd concentrations in roots and shoots. The results suggest that wheat cultivars with low shoot Cd concentration but higher tolerance, i.e. Lasani-2008 and Iqbal-2000, could be used in breading programs for low Cd wheat.     

Predicting the patterns, perceptions and causes of human–carnivore conflict in and around Machiara National Park, Pakistan

Human–carnivore conflict is considered to be a major conservation and rural livelihood issue because many carnivore species have been heavily persecuted due to elevated conflict levels with communities. To mitigate such conflicts requires a firm understanding of their underlying patterns. This situation is epitomized in Pakistan, where carnivore populations have been greatly reduced, but where no research has investigated the conflict patterns of large carnivore guilds with humans. Focusing in and around Machiara National Park (MNP), Azad Jammu and Kashmir region, we conducted the first such scientific study in Pakistan. From January 2004 to May 2007, 148 people lost their livestock to four carnivore species. Leopard was responsible for the majority (90.6%) of the 363 livestock killed, mainly goats (57.3%) and sheep (27.8%). Information-theoretic evaluation of a candidate set of regression models found that leopard kills inside villages were significantly higher for areas without electricity, while leopard kills outside villages were higher for pastoralists with larger herds that were further from MNP, with no effect from several guarding strategies used. Temporal leopard attacks were significantly and positively related to temperature, but not to rainfall, for goat kills, but not for other livestock kills. While leopard kills caused the greatest overall financial loss (19.8%) amongst carnivores, which negatively affected local tolerance towards leopard, disease caused greater livestock losses (72.7%). To improve both large carnivore and local livelihood prospects around MNP and across rural Pakistan, conservation and development projects should install village electricity supplies and vaccinate livestock, while the cost-effectiveness of different conflict mitigation strategies should be trialed.     

Exogenous protease supplementation of poultry by‐product meal‐based diets for broilers: Effects on growth,carcass characteristics and nutrient digestibility

An experiment was conducted to investigate the effects of three levels (0%, 3% and 6%) of poultry by‐product meal (PBM) with or without protease on broiler growth, carcass characteristics and nutrient digestibility from 1 to 35 days. Two hundred and forty birds (n = 240) were fed equi‐caloric and equi‐nitrogenous (ME 2850 kcal/kg; CP 20%) diets throughout the experiment. The enzyme supplementation increased feed intake (p < .01) and body weight gain (p < .01), but feed:gain remained unaffected (p > .05) from 1 to 21 days. Increasing level of PBM decreased feed intake (p < .05), but body weight gain was improved (p < .05) at 3% PBM level during 1 to 21 days. The feed:gain was improved (p < .05) in birds fed diets containing 3% PBM. The feed:gain was also improved in birds fed diets containing 3% PBM from 1 to 35 days. However, feed intake and body weight gain in birds fed diets containing PBM remained unaffected. An interaction (p < .01) on feed intake between enzyme and PBM was noticed during 1 to 21 days. However, no interaction was recorded for body weight gain and feed:gain. The per cent carcass yield improved (p < .01) in birds fed diets supplemented with enzyme. The per cent breast meat yield was depressed (p < .005) in birds fed diets containing PBM. Apparent metabolizable energy (p < .001), nitrogen retention (p < .01), apparent metabolizable energy corrected for nitrogen (p < .001), and apparent digestibility coefficient for nitrogen (p < .01) improved in birds fed diets containing enzyme; however, a reverse was noticed in those fed diets containing only PBM. In conclusion, inclusion of 3% PBM along with supplementation of exogenous protease improved performance and nutrient digestibility in broilers.     

Induction of oxidative stress and lipid peroxidation in rats chronically exposed to cypermethrin through dermal application

Present study was undertaken to study the effect of cypermethrin on oxidative stress after chronic dermal application. The insecticide was applied dermally at 50 mg/kg body weight in different groups of Wistar rats of either sex weighing 150~200 g. Significant (p < 0.05) increase in catalase activity was observed after 30 days of exposure. However, the superoxide dismutase activity declined significantly after 60 days of exposure. The activity of glutathione peroxidase and blood glutathione levels declined significantly (p < 0.05) after 30 days of cypermethrin dermal application. However, the activity of glutathione S-transferase increased significantly (p < 0.05) in all groups after 60 days of dermal exposure. Significant increase in lipid peroxidation was observed from 30 days onwards and reached a peak after 120 days of application.     

Molecular markers for the identification of resistance genes and marker-assisted selection in breeding wheat for leaf rust resistance

The resistance genes Lr9, Lr24, Lr25, Lr29, Lr35 and Lr37, which were not previously utilised in Hungary, have been incorporated into four Martonvásár winter wheat cultivars using marker-assisted selection with PCR-based markers. In the course of a backcross programme, the genes were transferred into Martonvásár wheat varieties and various BC generations were produced. Work aimed at pyramiding resistance genes is currently underway in Martonvásár, and plants containing the gene combinations Lr9 + Lr24, Lr9 + Lr25 and Lr9 + Lr29 are now available. From the BC₂F₄ generation of the ‘Mv Emma’*3/’R.L.6010’ combination (‘R.L.6010’ is the donor of the Lr9 gene) 287 lines were tested for leaf rust resistance in an artificially inoculated nursery. A co-dominant primer combination was designed to identify both resistant and susceptible offsprings. The results of resistance tests and molecular marker detection agreed in most cases. Designated leaf rust resistance genes were identified with molecular markers in wheat varieties and breeding lines. The Lr26 and Lr34 resistance genes occur frequently in the Martonvásár gene pool, and the presence of the Lr37 gene has also been detected in a number of Hungarian genotypes.     

Exploring influential plant traits for enhancing upland cotton yield under salt stress

This research was conducted to explore genetic material that can yield better under salt stress conditions. The experiment was laid out using 27 upland cotton genotypes in a RCBD 2 factorial arrangement with two replications. Saline water (NaCl at 20 dS/m) was applied after satisfactory emergence was achieved. The crop was raised to maturity and data relating to yield, fiber quality and ionic traits were recorded. Analysis of variance showed significant variations in the germplasm. Plant height, bolls per plant, boll weight, GOT%, staple length, staple strength, K⁺ and K⁺/Na⁺ ratio under salinity stress showed a highly significant correlation with seed-cotton yield. The highest direct effect on seedcotton yield per plant was exhibited by bolls per plant and boll weight. The results from the correlation and path coefficient analyses revealed that although the K⁺/Na⁺ ratio had a strong positively significant association with seedcotton yield, its direct effect on the seed-cotton yield was negative and thus selection on the basis of K⁺/Na⁺ may not be fruitful. Hence, only indirect selection through bolls per plant and boll weight may be effective in increasing the seedcotton yield per plant under salinity stress.