Comparing Deterministic and Probabilistic Risk Assessments. A case study at a closed steel mill in southern Sweden (7 pp)

Background, Aims and Scope   Contaminated land is a high priority environmental problem in most of Europe and North-America. Sweden is no exception and generic guideline values have been developed for the initial assessment, but site-specific assessments are also needed. The generic guideline values are not applicable when the exposure conditions are different from the typical Swedish conditions or when the site contains a particularly sensitive ecosystem. The Swedish guideline values have, like in many other countries, been set by using deterministic point estimates for all variables and constants in the used multimedia model. The same approach is common also for site-specific assessments, and a limitation is that it fails to quantify variability and uncertainty. Probabilistic risk assessment provided a method to deal with this problem. Variability and uncertainty in the input parameters (variables or constants) are described by probability distributions, and likewise the output (risk or exposure) is presented as a probability distribution. A substantial number of probabilistic risk assessments for contaminated land at sites in North America, Europe and Asia have been published. However, an extensive review of the literature did not identify any study where probabilistic risk assessment was applied to a site contaminated by an iron or steel industry. Here we will describe such a case, where we have compared a deterministic point estimate with a probabilistic risk assessment for six elements and benzo[a]pyrene. Methods   The site had different metallurgical plants in operation for more than 100 years. Most parts of the steel mill were closed by the mid 1980s, and today the site is used by small-sized enterprises. The soil is contaminated with metals from the previous industrial operations. The present owner plans to develop the site and has therefore initiated extensive investigations of soil contamination. Sixty-two soil samples collected between 1997 and 2000 provided a good coverage of the whole site, and were analyzed for the content of different elements and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH). The exposure assessments were focused on six elements with high concentrations compared to the generic guideline values; arsenic (As), lead (Pb), cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu) and zinc (Zn). In addition, benzo[a]pyrene was included due to the high toxicity and comparatively high concentrations. Variability and uncertainty were characterized in a Monte Carlo simulation of exposures (10 000 iterations), and the exposures were evaluated with two land use scenarios; less sensitive use and sensitive use. Results and Discussion   The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are in approximately the same ranges in the scenario of less sensitive land use. It is only the exposure for arsenic that is slightly above the toxicological reference value (TRV) in the deterministic assessment. In the probabilistic assessment, the exposure for all elements is below the TRV. The results for sensitive land use are applicable to a scenario where the site is developed for general housing. The deterministic point estimates and the probabilistic estimates of the 95th percentile are also here in approximately the same ranges, but the exposure exceeds the TRV for arsenic, cadmium and lead. Drinking water, vegetables grown on site and soil ingestion are the major exposure pathways for this scenario. In this assessment, the estimated intake distributions are applicable to a randomly selected individual. The probability distributions used here to characterize the different soil parameters are typically representing both variability and uncertainty, and the same is true the majority of the exposure variables. We therefore decided not to attempt to separate variability and uncertainty at this stage, but with additional data from a more in-depth site investigation it might be possible to achieve this. Conclusions and Outlook   To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first report on a probabilistic risk assessment on a former iron and steel works site. The materials handled by this industry were less toxic than for many other metallurgical operations, but contaminants may still severely limit the options for future land use. This case study shows that probabilistic exposure estimates for a set of soil contaminants can be quite similar to deterministic point estimates. The main difference is instead to be found in the additional information obtained with the probabilistic assessment. The sensitivity analyses show pathways and input variables that contribute most to variations in the total intake of each contaminant, e.g. dermal contact and ingestion of soil, vegetables and drinking water. This information can be used both in the planning of future land use and for active measures to reduce current exposure. The probabilistic assessment also provides information on the magnitude of exposure and the margin of safety. This information may facilitate risk communication between decision-makers and stakeholders. The presentation of results from probabilistic risk assessments is only briefly discussed in the literature and here we see a need for research and opportunities for enhancement. The choice of data analytical tools may then be of importance, since more complex multimedia models are rather difficult to decipher when implemented within traditional spreadsheet software. Some of the research needs are identified here and in a previous review article in this journal.     

Inhibition of cancer cell proliferation in vitro by fruit and berry extracts and correlations with antioxidant levels

The effects of 10 different extracts of fruits and berries on cell proliferation of colon cancer cells HT29 and breast cancer cells MCF-7 were investigated. The fruits and berries used were rosehips, blueberries, black currant, black chokeberries, apple, sea buckthorn, plum, lingonberries, cherries, and raspberries. The extracts decreased the proliferation of both colon cancer cells HT29 and breast cancer cells MCF-7, and the effect was concentration dependent. The inhibition effect for the highest concentration of the extracts varied 2-3-fold among the species, and it was in the ranges of 46-74% (average = 62%) for the HT29 cells and 24-68% (average = 52%) for the MCF-7 cells. There were great differences in the content of the analyzed antioxidants in the extracts. The level of the vitamin C content varied almost 100-fold, and the content of total carotenoids varied almost 150-fold among the species. Also in the composition and content of flavonols, hydroxycinnamic acids, anthocyanins, and phenolics were found great differences among the 10 species. The inhibition of cancer cell proliferation seen in these experiments correlated with levels of some carotenoids and with vitamin C levels, present at levels that can be found in human tissues. The same inhibition of cell proliferation could not be found by ascorbate standard alone. This correlation might indicate a synergistic effect of vitamin C and other substances. In MCF-7 cells, the anthocyanins may contribute to the inhibition of proliferation.     

Optothermistor as a breakthrough in the quantification of lycopene content of thermally processed tomato-based foods: verification versus absorption spectrophotometry and high-performance liquid chromatography

This study reports on the first use of the "optothermistor" as a novel, precise, fast, and low-cost detector of lycopene in a wide range of commercially available processed-tomato products. The quantitative performance of the new device was evaluated by comparing data obtained to that acquired by conventional methods, namely, absorption spectrophotometry and high-performance liquid chromatography (HPLC); the linear correlation was high (R = 0.98). The variation of data obtained with the optothermistor in a series of consecutive measurements performed with the same loading of the sample was better than 1%. However, the repeatability (RSD 0.5-9.0%, n = 3-5) achieved with the optothermistor by independent analyses (multiple loading) is comparable to that of HPLC and spectrophotometry. Results of the studies performed on the 19 products derived from tomatoes demonstrated that the optothermistor is suitable for selective, accurate, precise, and simple determination of lycopene (range = 7-75 mg/100 g of product weight) without the need for a sample pretreatment step. The estimated sensitivity of the present optothermistor is 2 mg of lycopene/100 g of product.     

Testing the Aluminium Toxicity Hypothesis: A Field Manipulation Experiment in Mature Spruce Forest in Norway

Aluminium (Al) has been considered to be a central element for risk evaluation of forest damage due to acidification. It has been hypothesized that Al reduces root growth, nutrient uptake and forest vitality. However, forest monitoring studies fail to show correlations between soil acidification and forest health. In general, no direct relation between Al concentration and forest health has been established. Here, Al concentrations in soil solution were manipulated by weekly additions of dilute AlCl₃ to levels that are believed to be unfavorable for plant growth. Four treatments (in triplicate), including a reference and three Al addition levels, were established. Effects of enhanced Al concentrations on fine root growth, nutrient uptake and crown condition in a mature Norway spruce forest in Norway were tested (1996–1999). After three years of manipulation, crown condition, tree growth and fine root growth were not affected by potentially toxic Al concentrations. However, the Mg content in current year's needles decreased at the highest Al addition treatment. The Mg/Al ratio of fine roots of the same treatment had declined too, which suggests that Al blocked Mg uptake at the root surface. The manipulation will be continued for two more years.     

Modelling ”clean rain” treatments in acidified soils-EXMAN project results

The SAFE dynamic model was applied to a ”clean rain” roof experiment performed within the EXMAN project. In the experiment ambient throughfall was removed and replaced with artificial ”clean throughfall”. Input of S, N and H to the forest ecosystem was reduced by 75–100%. The results of the modelling show, that the time scales of model predictions and experiments are the same. The change in base cation flux was well reproduced, while the simulation of changes in aluminum flux was less successful. pH stayed constant in the experiment as well as in the calculations.     

Antioxidants, low molecular weight carbohydrates, and total antioxidant capacity in strawberries (Fragaria x ananassa): effects of cultivar, ripening, and storage

Four cultivars of strawberries (Senga Sengana, BFr77111, Elsanta, and Honeoye) were studied for their content of antioxidants, total antioxidant capacity, and low molecular weight carbohydrates in relation to harvest year, ripening stage, and cold storage. For ascorbic acid, chlorogenic acid, ellagic acid, and total antioxidative capacity, measured in both water-soluble and water-insoluble extracts, there was a 2-5-fold variation among cultivars. Unripe berries contained lower concentrations of chlorogenic acid and p-coumaric acid and also quercetin and kaempferol compared with riper berries. During cold storage for up to 3 days, relatively few changes in the concentration of the different antioxidants occurred. The concentrations of several investigated parameters were interrelated, for example, for ascorbic acid and water-soluble antioxidant capacity and for ellagic acid and water-insoluble antioxidant capacity. The dominating sugars in strawberries were fructose and glucose, but considerable amounts of sucrose were also present, and their contents varied among cultivars, giving a predicted glycemic index of approximately 81. Verbascose, raffinose, and stachyose were found in only minor amounts. The study shows that the concentration of a number of bioactive compounds in strawberries varied according to cultivar, ripening stage, and storage. This information should make it possible to select strawberries with an optimal content of bioactive compounds.     

The Nutritive Value For Growing Pigs of Single Cell Protein (Saccharomyces Cerevisiae) Produced from Sulphite Spent Liquor

The effects on growing pigs of substituting 4.5 and 9 % of soy bean meal with a corresponding amount of single cell protein produced from sulphite spent liquor in a diet based on cereals and fish meal have been studied. The concentration of lignosulphonic acids in the single cell protein product was found to be 0.6 % ± 0.2 % (m. ± s). No differences in the weight gain, feed conversion ratio or fat thickness of the pigs, as compared with the controls, were observed when fed single cell protein-containing diets from about 29 to 80 kg in the course of 11 weeks. Nor were any effects found on addition of 0.15 % of methionine to the diets.     

Bone-metastasizing squamous-cell carcinoma of the skin in a dog

Bone-metastasizing squamous-cell carcinoma of a 6-year-old female Bedlington terrier is reported. The dog was operated on for a squamous-cell carcinoma in the axillary region. Four weeks after operation the dog developed signs of anaemia. It also became weak and showed neurological signs. Radiographs revealed areas of rarefaction in two vertebrae and densities in the lungs suggesting tumour metastases. The animal was destroyed and metastases were found in the axillary and internal iliac lymph nodes, the lungs, the first thoracic vertebra and the third lumbar vertebra. The tumour mass in the thoracic vertebra protruded into the spinal canal and compressed the spinal cord. The tumour cells in the primary tumour were of anaplastic type. Résumé. Un carcinome squamo-cellulaire, métastasiant les os est rapporté chez un Bedlington terrier femelle de six ans. On a opéré le chien d'un carcinome squamo-cellulaire dans la région axillaire. Quatre semaines après l'opération le chien a développé des signes d'anémie. Il s'est aussi affaibli et a montré des signes neurologiques. Des radiographies ont révélé des surfaces de raréfaction dans deux vertèbres et les densités dans les poumons ont suggéré des métastases de tumeur. L'animal a été detruit et on a trouvé des métastases dans les n?uds lymphatiques, iliaques internes et axillaires, les poumons, la première vertèbre thoracique et la troisième vertèbre lombaire. L'excroissance dans la vertèbre thoracique a fait saillie dans le canal vertébral et a comprimé la moelle épinière. Les cellules de la tumeur dans la tumeur primaire étaient de type anaplastique. Zusammenfassung: Von einem Knochen-metastasierenden schuppenzelligem Karzinom in einem 6 Jahre alten weiblichen Bedlington-Terrier wurde berichtet. Man operierte den Hund an einem schuppenzelligen Karzinom in der Achsellymphdrüsengegend. Vier Wochen nach der Operation entwickelte der Hund Anzeichen von Anämie. Auch wurde er schwach und zeigte neurologische Symptome. Röntgenaufnahmen zeigten Gebiete von Rarefactio in zwei Rücken-wirbeln und Verdichtungen in der Lunge liessen auf Tochtergeschwulste deuten. Man tötete den Hund und Metastasen fanden sich in den Achsellymphdrüsen und den innerlichen Darmbein-lymphknoten, der Lunge, dem ersten Brustwirbel und dem dritten Lendenwirbel. Der Massen-tumor in dem Brustwirbel ragte bis in den Kanal der Wirbelsäule hinein und drückte auf denWirbelsäulenstrang. Die Tumorzellen in dem Primärtumor waren vom anaplastischen Typ.     

EFFECT OF REGION OF INTEREST SELECTION AND UPTAKE MEASUREMENT ON GLOMERULAR FILTRATION RATE MEASURED BY 99mTc-DTPA SCINTIGRAPHY IN DOGS

Determinations of different methods of measurement of uptake of 99mTc-DTPA using scintigraphy of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) were made from 29 studies on 10 healthy beagle dogs. GFR was measured by calculating the percentage dose uptake (integral method) and rate of uptake (slope method) of 99mTc-DTPA using manual kidney regions of interest (ROI) and automatic kidney and background ROIs at different time periods of the uptake phase. These results were compared using linear regression analysis to the GFR obtained from 99mTc-DTPA plasma clearance using multiple blood samples. The best correlation coefficient between percentage DTPA uptake and GFR by DTPA clearance (r = 0.84, P < 0.001) was derived from time intervals between 30s-120s with a perirenal background ROI at 1 or 2 pixels out from the kidney ROI using automatic kidney ROI at 20% threshold. With the slope method, the best correlation coefficient (r = 0.85, P < 0.001) was obtained from time intervals between 30s-peak with the background ROI at 2 pixels out from the kidney ROI using automatic ROI at 35% threshold. The offset was higher, and the correlation varied more with different ROIs and the method was unreliable at time intervals extending beyond the peak radioactivity. Manual kidney ROIs with automatic background ROIs had slightly lower correlations. With DTPA renography both integral and slope uptake method with automatic kidney and background ROIs are accurate methods to estimate the GFR, but that the integral method is much more stable to variations in ROI size and the duration of the uptake phase of the renogram.