Using integrated population modelling to quantify the implications of multiple threatening processes for a rapidly declining population

Many species of conservation concern are in decline due to threats from multiple sources. To quantify the conservation requirements of these species we need robust estimates of the impact of each threat on the rate of population decline. However, for the vast majority of species this information is lacking. Here we demonstrate the application of integrated population modelling as a means of deriving robust estimates of the impact of multiple threats for a rapidly declining koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) population in South-east Queensland, Australia. Integrated population modelling provides a basis for reducing uncertainty and bias by formally integrating information from multiple data sources into a single model. We quantify mortality rates due to threats from dog attacks, vehicle collisions and disease and the extent to which each of these mortality rates would need to be reduced, or how much habitat would need to be restored, to stop the population declining. We show that the integrated population modelling approach substantially reduces uncertainty. We also show that recovery actions that only address single threats would need to reduce those threats to implausibly low levels to recover the population. This indicates that strategies for simultaneously tackling multiple threats are necessary; a situation that is likely to be true for many of the world’s threatened species. This study provides an important framework for quantifying the conservation requirements of species undergoing declines due to multiple threats.     

The consequences of interactions between dispersal distance and resolution of habitat clustering for dispersal success

Habitat clustering results from processes of habitat loss and fragmentation, which operate at different resolutions and with different intensities, e.g. forest clear-cutting or thinning. Individual movements also vary at different spatial scales according to landscape structure and species dispersal strategies. Disentangling the relative impact of habitat loss and fragmentation on the long-term survival of species requires understanding how clustering at one resolution interacts with the amount of habitat, dispersal distance and clustering at other resolutions, to affect dispersal success. We addressed this problem by quantifying the magnitude of these interactions and how they were affected by the intensity of habitat removal. Individual-based simulations were conducted on artificial fractal landscapes where the intensity of habitat removal and the amount of clustering were varied independently at two nested resolutions, while the total amount of habitat in the landscape was controlled for. We show that the way the amount of habitat, the dispersal distance and the amount of clustering affect dispersal success depends on the resolution at which habitat clustering occurs, the intensity at which habitat is removed, and the strength of habitat selection. Our findings highlight: (a) the importance of explicitly considering scale-dependent biological responses to landscape change; and (b) the need to identify the appropriate scale at which to manage fragmentation, thus avoiding mismatches between the scale of ecological processes and the scale of management.     

The influence of landscape relative to site and patch variables on primate distributions in the Colombian Llanos

Context

Primates are an important component of biodiversity in tropical regions. However, many studies on the effects of habitat change on primates ignore the relative influence of landscape composition and configuration.

Objectives

This study addresses the question: how important are landscape-scale forest area and composition relative to patch-scale (1–1080 ha) and site-scale (transect of 1 km) habitat variables for the occupancy and abundance of four primate species in the Colombian Llanos.

Methods

Using a randomly stratified survey design, 81 fragments were surveyed for primate occupancy and abundance. We used zero-inflated models to test the relative influence of landscape-scale, patch-scale and site-scale variables on occupancy and abundance for each species. A 95% confidence set of models was constructed using the cumulative Akaike weight for each model and the relative importance of each set of variables calculated for each primate species.

Results

Occupancy was determined by a combination of site-scale, patch-scale and landscape-scale variables but this varied substantially among the primate species.

Conclusion

Our study highlights the importance of managing primates at a range of scales that considers the relative importance of site-, patch- and landscape-scale variables.

     

Habitat attributes of landscape mosaics along a gradient of matrix development intensity: matrix management matters

The matrix is an important element of landscape mosaics that influences wildlife indirectly through its influence on habitat, and directly, if they live in or move through it. Therefore, to quantify and manage habitat quality for wildlife in modified landscapes, it is necessary to consider the characteristics of both patch and matrix elements of the whole landscape mosaic. To isolate matrix effects from the often simultaneous and confounding influence of patch and landscape characteristics, we identified nineteen 500 m radius landscapes in southeast Queensland, Australia with similar remnant forest patch attributes, habitat loss, and fragmentation, but exhibiting a marked gradient from rural through high-density suburban development of the matrix, quantified by a weighted road-length metric. We measured habitat disturbance, structure, and floristics in patch core, patch edge and matrix landscape elements to characterise how landscape habitat quality changes for small mammals. Correlation analyses identified that with increased matrix development intensity, human disturbance of core sites increased, predators and exotic plant species richness in matrix sites increased, and structural complexity (e.g. logs and stumps) in the matrix decreased. Ordination analyses showed landscape elements were most similar in habitat structure and floristics at low to moderate levels of matrix development, suggesting enhanced landscape habitat quality. Matrix development intensity was not, however, the greatest source of overall variation of habitat throughout landscapes. Many variables, such as landholder behaviour, complicate the relationship. For enhanced conservation outcomes the matrix needs to be managed to control disturbances and strategically plan for matrix habitat retention and restoration.     

Modular organization of genes required for complex polyketide biosynthesis

In Saccharopolyspora erythraea, the genes that govern synthesis of the polyketide portion of the macrolide antibiotic erythromycin are organized in six repeated units that encode fatty acid synthase (FAS)-like activities. Each repeated unit is designated a module, and two modules are contained in a single open reading frame. A model for the synthesis of this complex polyketide is proposed, where each module encodes a functional synthase unit and each synthase unit participates specifically in one of the six FAS-like elongation steps required for formation of the polyketide. In addition, genetic organization and biochemical order of events appear to be colinear. Evidence for the model is provided by construction of a selected mutant and by isolation of a polyketide of predicted structure.     

Avulsion of the proximal digital annular ligament in five hindlimbs

Avulsion of the proximal attachment of the proximal digital annular ligament (PDAL) was identified in five horses based on characteristic radiographic findings and supported by ultrasonographic examination in four horses. In two cases, PDAL avulsion was associated with acute onset lameness based on physical examination (both animals) and diagnostic analgesia (one animal), and was the only lesion identified. Both horses became sound after a period of rest. Radiographs repeated 11 years later in one animal showed minimal change in the appearance of the lesion. PDAL avulsion was associated with a substantial tear of the deep digital flexor tendon in another horse and in the remaining two cases PDAL avulsion was not associated with lameness. A dissection study found that the proximodistal extent of the proximal PDAL attachment, expressed as a proportion of the length of the proximal phalanx, was significantly (P = 0.011) greater in hindlimbs (11.48 ± 1.01%) compared with forelimbs (8.55 ± 1.06%). This finding may explain why hindlimbs appear at greater risk of PDAL avulsion. In conclusion, while PDAL avulsion can be a cause of acute lameness which, in uncomplicated cases, responds to rest, it can also be an incidental radiographic finding.     

Integrated vegetation designs for enhancing water retention and recycling in agroecosystems

Long term studies have shown strong links between vegetation clearing and rainfall declines and more intense droughts. Many agroecosystems are exposed to more extreme weather and further declines in rainfall under climate change unless adaptations increase the retention of water in landscapes, and its recycling back to the lower atmosphere. Vegetation systems provide vital feedbacks to mechanisms that underpin water vapour recycling between micro- and meso-scales. Various heterogeneous forms of vegetation can help generate atmospheric conditions conducive to precipitation, and therefore, increase the resilience of agroecosystems to drought and climatic extremes. The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how vegetation can be designed for agroecosystems to enhance recycling of water vapour to the atmosphere through the regulation of surface water and wind, and heat fluxes. The structure of the paper revolves around five functions of integrated vegetation designs that can help underpin the restoration of water recycling through enhanced retention of stormwater, protection from wind, moistening and cooling the landscape, production of plant litter, and contribution toward regional scale climate and catchment functioning. We also present two supplementary functions relevant to land and natural resource managers which may also be integrated using these designs.     

Out on a limb: habitat use of a specialist folivore, the koala, at the edge of its range in a modified semi-arid landscape

Habitat loss and natural catastrophes reduce the resources available to animals. Species can persist if they have access to additional resources and habitats through the processes of landscape complementation and supplementation. In arid and semi-arid ecosystems, where productivity is limited by precipitation, the impact of landscape change and prolonged drought is severe on specialist species whose range boundaries are limited by aridity. We examined the pattern of occurrence by a specialist arboreal folivore, the koala, at the periphery of its biogeographic range, in a semi-arid rangeland landscape. We used hierarchical mixed modelling to examine the effect of landscape change on koala populations and their habitat use during and after a prolonged drought. We found that the tree species and the distance of a site from water courses were the most important determinants for koala presence in these landscapes. Koalas were predominantly detected in riverine habitat along the water courses, which are primary habitat and provide refugia in times of drought and extreme heat. There was a strong positive effect from the interaction between the amount of primary and secondary habitat in the landscape, although individually, the amount of each of these habitats was not important. This shows koalas will persist in more intact landscapes. There was no difference in habitat use between dry and wet years, but we consider that it can take several wet seasons for koalas to expand into habitats away from water courses.     

Can a problem-solving approach strengthen landscape ecology’s contribution to sustainable landscape planning?

The need to avert unacceptable and irreversible environmental change is the most urgent challenge facing society. Landscape ecology has the capacity to help address these challenges by providing spatially-explicit solutions to landscape sustainability problems. However, despite a large body of research, the real impact of landscape ecology on sustainable landscape management and planning is still limited. In this paper, we first outline a typology of landscape sustainability problems which serves to guide landscape ecologists in the problem-solving process. We then outline a formal problem-solving approach, whereby landscape ecologists can better bring about disciplinary integration, a consideration of multiple landscape functions over long time scales, and a focus on decision making. This framework explicitly considers multiple ecological objectives and socio-economic constraints, the spatial allocation of scarce resources to address these objectives, and the timing of the implementation of management actions. It aims to make explicit the problem-solving objectives, management options and the system understanding required to make sustainable landscape planning decisions. We propose that by adopting a more problem-solving approach, landscape ecologists can make a significant contribution towards realising sustainable future landscapes.