Statistical analysis of ratio estimators and their estimators of variances when the auxiliary variate is measured with error

Forest inventory relies heavily on sampling strategies. Ratio estimators use information of an auxiliary variable (x) to improve the estimation of a parameter of a target variable (y). We evaluated the effect of measurement error (ME) in the auxiliary variate on the statistical performance of three ratio estimators of the target parameter total τ _y . The analyzed estimators are: the ratio-of-means, mean-of-ratios, and an unbiased ratio estimator. Monte Carlo simulations were conducted over a population of more than 14,000 loblolly pine (Pinus taeda L.) trees, using tree volume (v) and diameter at breast height (d) as the target and auxiliary variables, respectively. In each simulation three different sample sizes were randomly selected. Based on the simulations, the effect of different types (systematic and random) and levels (low to high) of MEs in x on the bias, variance, and mean square error of three ratio estimators was assessed. We also assessed the estimators of the variance of the ratio estimators. The ratio-of-means estimator had the smallest root mean square error. The mean-of-ratios estimator was found quite biased (20%). When the MEs are random, neither the accuracy (i.e. bias) of any of the ratio estimators is greatly affected by type and level of ME nor its precision (i.e. variance). Positive systematic MEs decrease the bias but increase the variance of all the ratio estimators. Only the variance estimator of the ratio-of-means estimator is biased, being especially large for the smallest sample size, and larger for negative MEs, mainly if they are systematic.     

Adaptation of the LIGNUM model for simulations of growth and light response in Jack pine

LIGNUM is a whole tree model, developed for Pinus sylvestris in Finland, that combines tree metabolism with a realistic spatial distribution of morphological parts. We hypothesize that its general concepts, which include the pipe model, functional balance, yearly carbon budget, and a set of architectural growth rules, are applicable to all trees. Adaptation of the model to Pinus banksiana, a widespread species of economic importance in North America, is demonstrated.

Conversion of the model to Jack pine entailed finding new values for 16 physiological and morphological parameters, and three growth functions. Calibration of the LIGNUM Jack pine model for open grown trees up to 15 years of age was achieved by matching crown appearance and structural parameters (height, foliage biomass, aboveground biomass) with those of real trees. A sensitivity study indicated that uncertainty in the photosynthesis and respiration parameters will primarily cause changes to the net annual carbon gain, which can be corrected through calibration of the growth rate. The effect of a decrease in light level on height, biomass, total tree branch length, and productivity were simulated and compared with field data. Additional studies yielded insight into branch pruning, carbon allocation patterns, crown structure, and carbon stress. We discuss the value of the LIGNUM model as a tool for understanding tree growth and survival dynamics in natural and managed forests.     

Determination of Young's modulus for spruce, fir and isotropic materials by the resonance flexure method with comparisons to static flexure and other dynamic methods

Summary Dynamic methods provide rapid and accurate means to determine Young's modulus, i.e. the modulus of elasticity, of wood. For dry, clear specimens of épicéa commun (Norway spruce, picea excelsa) and sapin pictiné (silver fir, abies amabilis) we present a comparison of results from tests by a resonance flexure method with results obtained from four-point static flexure tests. For a wide range of specimen size the resonance flexure method provides a simpler, more rapidly performed alternative to the classical static flexure method, giving Young's modulus values which are for the spruce and fir specimens of this study, nearly identical to those calculated from the static flexure tests. Results are also presented which show that a resonance longitudinal method yields higher values of Young's modulus and an ultrasonic method yields still higher values. We provide also a comparison of the four test methods applied to isotropic materials.The authors wish to thank Pierre Michel and André Perrin for preparing the test specimens and components of the test apparatus for this study     

Digital image analysis of radial shrinkage of fresh spruce (Picea abies L.) wood

Contact-free digital image analysis was performed of the radial shrinkage of fresh, fully saturated small spruce wood beams. An experimental test set-up was developed to ensure constant distance from the charge-coupled device camera to the sample surface as well as constant climate and light conditions during the whole experiment. Dimensional changes were observed immediately after the drying process began. An unexpected distinct effect could be observed which could not be explained by drying surface layers only. After a fast initial radial shrinkage a slowing down of the dimensional changes occurred at high mean moisture contents. A complete interruption of any dimensional changes followed. Finally, a recovery from shrinkage was even observed. It is assumed that strong negative pressure occurred in the fully saturated capillaries owing to dehydration which led to additional dimensional changes. As a consequence, the break of the water column and aeration in these capillaries finally resulted in a recovery period in the shrinkage rate due to the pressure release. After this effect, the dehydration was characterized by a phase of fast and almost linear shrinkage due to drying surface layers. Finally, the shrinkage slowed down to zero when reaching equilibrium moisture content.     

Does tree seedling growth and survival require weeding of Himalayan balsam (Impatiens glandulifera)?

The effect of Himalayan balsam (Impatiens glandulifera) on survival and growth of naturally regenerated silver birch (Betula pendula) and planted Norway spruce (Picea abies) and silver fir (Abies alba) seedlings was studied in a weeding experiment over 3 years. Three different treatments were applied: control, mowing, and hand weeding by pulling out the entire plant. There were no consistent treatment effects on height and diameter of the tree seedlings. The coverage of Rubus fruticosus had a negative impact on diameter increment of Norway spruce and silver fir. As opposed to growth, treatment effects on seedling survival could be found for planted Norway spruce and silver fir. However, it is very likely that these effects, namely higher seedling survival after mowing, have to be attributed to the control of bramble (Rubus fruticosus) rather than to that of Himalayan balsam. It is concluded that Himalayan balsam is not able to seriously affect the growth of already established seedlings.     

Species proportions by area in mixtures of Scots pine (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pinus sylvestris</Emphasis> L.) and European beech (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Fagus sylvatica</Emphasis> L.)

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) dominate many of the European forest stands. Also, mixtures of European beech and Scots pine more or less occur over all European countries, but have been scarcely investigated. The area occupied by each species is of high relevance, especially for growth evaluation and comparison of different species in mixed and monospecific stands. Thus, we studied different methods to describe species proportions and their definition as proportion by area. 25 triplets consisting of mixed and monospecific stands were established across Europe ranging from Lithuania to Spain in northern to southern direction and from Bulgaria to Belgium in eastern to western direction. On stand level, the conclusive method for estimating the species proportion as a fraction of the stand area relates the observed density (tree number or basal area) to its potential. This stand-level estimation makes use of the potential from comparable neighboring monospecific stands or from maximum density lines derived from other data, e.g. forest inventories or permanent observations plots. At tree level, the fraction of the stand area occupied by a species can be derived from the proportions of their crown projection area or of their leaf area. The estimates of the potentials obtained from neighboring monospecific stands, especially in older stands, were poorer than those from the maximum density line depending on the Martonne aridity index. Therefore, the stand-level method in combination with the Martonne aridity index for potential densities can be highly recommended. The species’ proportions estimated with this method are best approximated by the proportions of the species’ leaf areas. In forest practice, the most commonly applied method is an ocular estimation of the proportions by crown projection area. Even though the proportions of pine were calculated here by measuring crown projection areas in the field, we found this method to underestimate the proportion by 25% compared to the stand-level approach.     

Timber mobilization and habitat tree retention in low-elevation mixed forests in Switzerland: an inventory-based scenario analysis of opportunities and constraints

Timber use in central Europe is expected to increase in the future, in line with forest policy goals to strengthen local wood supply for CO₂-neutral energy production, construction and other uses. Growing stocks in low-elevation forests in Switzerland are currently high as exemplified by the Swiss canton of Aargau, for which an average volume of 346 ± 16 m³ ha⁻¹ was measured in the 3rd Swiss National forest inventory (NFI) in 2004–2006. While this may justify a reduction of growing stocks through increased timber harvesting, we asked whether such a strategy may conflict with the sustainability of timber production and conservation goals. We evaluated a range of operationally relevant forest management scenarios that varied with respect to rotation length, growing stock targets and the promotion of conifers in the regeneration. The scenarios aimed at increased production of softwood, energy wood, the retention of potential habitat trees (PHTs) and the conversion to a continuous cover management system. They were used to drive the inventory-based forest simulator MASSIMO for 100 years starting in 2007 using the NFI sampling plots in Aargau. We analyzed model outputs with respect to projected future growing stock, growth, timber and energy yield and harvesting costs. We found growing stock to drop to 192 m³ ha⁻¹ in 2106 if business-as-usual (BAU as observed between the 2nd and 3rd NFI) timber volumes were set as harvesting targets for the whole simulation period. The promotion of conifers and a reduction of rotation lengths in a softwood scenario yielded 25% more timber over the whole simulation period than BAU. An energy wood scenario that reduced growing stock to 200 m³ ha⁻¹ by 2056 and promoted the natural broadleaved regeneration yielded 9% more timber than BAU before 2056 and 30% less thereafter due to decreasing increments. The softwood scenario resulted in higher energy yield than the energy wood scenario despite the lower energy content of softwood. Retaining PHT resulted in a reduction of timber harvest (0.055 m³ ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ per habitat tree) and higher harvesting costs. Continuous cover management yielded moderate timber amounts throughout the simulation period, yet sustainably. Considering climate change, we discuss the risks associated with favoring drought- and disturbance-susceptible conifers at low elevations and emphasize that continuous cover management must allow for the regeneration of drought-adapted tree species. In conclusion, our simulations show potential for short-term increases in timber mobilization but also that such increases need to be carefully balanced with future forest productivity and other forest ecosystem services.

     

Sterile insect technique and <Emphasis Type="Italic">Wolbachia</Emphasis> symbiosis as potential tools for the control of the invasive species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila suzukii</Emphasis>

Drosophila suzukii, a vinegar fly originated from Southeast Asia, has recently invaded western countries, and it has been recognized as an important threat of a wide variety of several commercial soft fruits. This review summarizes the current information about the biology and dispersal of D. suzukii and discusses the current status and prospects of control methods for the management of this pest. We highlight current knowledge and ongoing research on innovative environmental-friendly control methods with emphasis on the sterile insect technique (SIT) and the incompatible insect technique (IIT). SIT has been successfully used for the containment, suppression or even eradication of populations of insect pests. IIT has been proposed as a stand-alone tool or in conjunction with SIT for insect pest control. The principles of SIT and IIT are reviewed, and the potential value of each approach in the management of D. suzukii is analyzed. We thoroughly address the challenges of SIT and IIT, and we propose the use of SIT as a component of an area-wide integrated pest management approach to suppress D. suzukii populations. As a contingency plan, we suggest a promising alternative avenue through the combination of these two techniques, SIT/IIT, which has been developed and is currently being tested in open-field trials against Aedes mosquito populations. All the potential limiting factors that may render these methods ineffective, as well as the requirements that need to be fulfilled before their application, are discussed.     

Influence of latitude on the light availability for intercrops in an agroforestry alley-cropping system

Light competition by trees is often regarded as a major limiting factor for crops in alley-cropping agroforestry. Northern latitude farmers are usually reluctant to adopt agroforestry as they fear that light competition will be fiercer in their conditions. We questioned the light availability for crops in alley-cropping at different latitudes from the tropic circle to the polar circle with a process-based 3D model of alley-cropping agroforestry. Two tree densities and two tree line orientations were considered. The effect of the latitude was evaluated with same-sized trees. The relative irradiance of the crops was computed for the whole year or at specific times of the year when crops need more light. The heterogeneity of crop irradiance across the alley was also computed. Surprisingly, crop relative irradiance of summer crops at high latitudes is high, at odds with farmers’ fears. Best designs were highlighted for improving the crop irradiance: North–South tree lines are recommended at high latitudes and East–West tree lines at low latitudes. At medium latitudes, North–South tree lines should be preferred to achieve an homogeneous irradiance of the crop in the alley. If we assume that trees at northern latitudes grow slower when compared to southern latitudes, then alley-cropping agroforestry is highly advisable even at high latitudes with summer crops.