Combining top-down and bottom-up dynamics in land use modeling: exploring the future of abandoned farmlands in Europe with the Dyna-CLUE model

Land use change is the result of interactions between processes operating at different scales. Simulation models at regional to global scales are often incapable of including locally determined processes of land use change. This paper introduces a modeling approach that integrates demand-driven changes in land area with locally determined conversion processes. The model is illustrated with an application for European land use. Interactions between changing demands for agricultural land and vegetation processes leading to the re-growth of (semi-) natural vegetation on abandoned farmland are explicitly addressed. Succession of natural vegetation is simulated based on the spatial variation in biophysical and management related conditions, while the dynamics of the agricultural area are determined by a global multi-sector model. The results allow an exploration of the future dynamics of European land use and landscapes. The model approach is similarly suitable for other regions and processes where large scale processes interact with local dynamics.     

Changes in fox squirrel anti-predator behaviors across the urban–rural gradient

Predator stimuli created by humans in the urban environment may alter animals’ anti-predator behaviors. I hypothesized that habituation would cause anti-predator behaviors to decrease in urban settings in response to humans. Additionally, I hypothesized that populations habituated to humans would show reduced responses to other predator stimuli. I observed three populations of squirrels (urban, suburban and rural) responses to human approaches, red-tailed hawk vocalizations (Buteo jamaicensis) and coyote (Canis latrans) vocalizations. Mahalanobis distances of anti-predator behaviors in response to human approaches were consistent with the urban–rural gradient. Flight initiation distances (X ² = 26.33, df = 2, P < 0.001) and amount of time dedicated to anti-predator behavior (X ² = 10.94, df = 2, P = 0.004) in response to human approaches were also consistent with the urban–rural gradient. Supporting the habituation hypothesis, naive juvenile squirrels increased flight initiation distances (X ² = 35.89, df = 1, P < 0.001) and time dedicated to anti-predator behaviors (X ² = 9.46, df = 1, P = 0.002) relative to adult squirrels in the same urban environment. Time dedicated to anti-predator behaviors differed among all three sites in response to both coyote (X ² = 9.83, df = 2, P = 0.007) and hawk (X ² = 6.50, df = 2, P = 0.035) vocalizations. Responses to both vocalizations on rural sites (coyote = 45%, hawk = 55%) greater than twice that found on the urban sites (coyote = 11%, hawk = 20%). This is possibly the first case of a transfer of habituation demonstrated under field conditions.     

Analysis of landscape pattern change trajectories within areas of intensive agricultural use: case study in a watershed of southern Québec, Canada

This study aimed at capturing the spatial variability of landscape patterns and their trajectories of change from 1950 to 2000 within a watershed, which is representative of areas of intensive agricultural use. After an analysis of landscape features changes for the entire watershed based on aerial photographs, hierarchical clustering analysis provided a typology of landscape patterns for the cadastral lots. Following that, the trajectory of change of each lot was characterized (nature, importance, direction, rate of change). Seven types of landscape patterns are distinguished by the relative importance of different classes of landscape features and 51 trajectories of change were identified for the lots. The analysis shows that although the majority of lots were subjected to a homogenization of their landscape patterns since 1950, this trend is not entirely uniform and that since 2000 it occurs alongside trends towards diversification of certain landscape features on some lots. Furthermore, nearly a third of the lots are not following the main trajectories of change detected. Thus, the results suggest that extrinsic forces (policies, technologies) that are directing main changes in areas of intensive agricultural use toward uniformity could be modulated by internal forces (uses and values of the population). A better understanding of theses internal forces seems crucial to manage landscapes. From a methodology standpoint, although the hierarchical clustering analyses appear useful for understanding the spatial and temporal variability of landscape patterns, particular attention must be given to validating the typology chosen to characterize them.     

Surface velocity coefficients for application of the float method in rectangular and compound open channels

A three-dimensional mathematical hydraulic model was applied to calculate velocity profiles and discharge under steady, uniform flow conditions in rectangular and compound open-channel cross sections. The velocity profiles were used to calculate surface velocity coefficients for use with the float method for discharge estimation in the field. Surface velocity coefficients were calculated at increments of one-eighth of the base width from the vertical walls to the center of the cross section, and submergence of the float object from 0 to 30 cm, with a 5-cm depth increment. Model results were summarized to show the relationship between surface velocity coefficient and channel characteristics compared to values published by the US Bureau of Reclamation (USBR). For rectangular cross sections, the coefficients from the model are generally higher than the published USBR values. But the coefficients from the model and USBR are in very close agreement for the tested compound cross sections. The published coefficients by the USBR are a function of only average water depth. However, the model results show that the coefficient is also related to channel size, cross-sectional aspect ratio, surface roughness height, float submergence and lateral location of the float object. These factors should be included in the determination of the surface velocity coefficient to improve the discharge estimations from the application of the float method.     

Irrigation management practices of cabbage farmers in Botswana using saline groundwater

All horticultural production in Botswana is irrigated, as average rainfall is less than average reference evapotranspiration in all parts of the country for all of the year, and most of the irrigation in the country is used for horticultural crops. In the main, the water used for irrigation comes from groundwater, and much of this can be classified as moderately saline. A survey was carried out of 60 cabbage farmers in five regions of the country to identify the level of salinity of irrigation water and the irrigation practices used. It was concluded that there was no relationship between the irrigation rate (average irrigation depth divided by average irrigation interval) and the salinity of the water used or the salinity of the soil, such that some farmers were over-irrigating and others under-irrigating. This means that water is being wasted and yields are likely to be reduced. In addition, there is a risk of long-term build-up of salinity and soil degradation.     

FSWM: A hybrid fuzzy-stochastic water-management model for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty

A hybrid fuzzy-stochastic water-management (FSWM) model is developed for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, based on advancement of a multistage fuzzy-stochastic quadratic programming (MFSQP) approach. In MFSQP, uncertainties presented in terms of fuzziness and randomness can be incorporated within a multilayer scenario tree, such that revised decisions are permitted in each time period based on the realized values of the uncertain events. Moreover, fuzzy quadratic terms are used in the objective function to minimize the variation of satisfaction degrees among the constraints; it allows an increased flexibility in controlling the system risk in the optimization process. Results of the case study indicate that useful solutions for the planning of agricultural water management have been obtained. In the FSWM model, a number of policies for agricultural water supply are conducted. The results obtained can help decision makers to identify desired water-allocation schemes for agricultural sustainability under uncertainty, particularly when limited water resources are available for multiple competing users.     

Bahiagrass crop coefficients from eddy correlation measurements in central Florida

Bahiagrass (Paspalum notatum) is a warm-season grass used primarily in pastures and along highways and other low maintenance public areas in Florida. It is also used in landscapes to some extent because of its drought tolerance. Bahiagrass can survive under a range of moisture conditions from no irrigation to very wet conditions. Its well-watered consumptive use has not been reported previously. In this study, bahiagrass crop coefficients (K _c) for an irrigated pasture were determined for July 2003 through December 2006 in central Florida. The eddy correlation method was used to estimate crop evapotranspiration (ET_c) rates. The standardized reference evapotranspiration (ET_o) equation (ASCE-EWRI standardization of reference evapotranspiration task committee report, 2005) was applied to calculate ET_o values using on site weather data. Daily K _c values were estimated from the ratio of the measured ET_c and the calculated ET_o. The recommended K _c values for bahiagrass are 0.35 for January–February, 0.55 for March, 0.80 for April, 0.90 for May, 0.75 for June, 0.70 for July–August, 0.75 for September, 0.70 for October, 0.60 for November, and 0.45 for December in central Florida. The highest K _c value of 0.9 in May corresponded with maximum vapor pressure deficit conditions as well as cloud free conditions and the highest incoming solar radiation as compared to the rest of the year. During the summer (June to August), frequent precipitation events increased the cloud cover and reduced grass water use. The K _c annual trend was similar to estimated K _c values from another well-watered warm-season grass study in Florida.     

Estimation of actual evapotranspiration for a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard using a three-source model

A study was performed in order to evaluate the three-source model (Clumped model) for direct estimation of actual evapotranspiration (ET_a) and latent heat flux (LE) over a drip-irrigated Merlot vineyard trained on a vertical shoot positioned system (VSP) under semi-arid conditions. The vineyard, with an average fractional cover of 30%, is located in the Talca Valley, Region del Maule, Chile. The performance of the Clumped model was evaluated using an eddy covariance system during the 2006/2007 and 2007/2008 growing seasons. Results indicate that the Clumped model was able to predict ET_a with a root mean square error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and model efficiency (EF) of 0.33, −0.15 mm day⁻¹ and 74%, respectively. Also, the Clumped model simulated the daytime variation of LE with a RMSE of 36 W m⁻², MBE of −8 W m⁻², and EF of 83%. Major disagreement (underestimated values) between observed and estimated values of ET_a was found for clear days after rainfall or foggy days, but underestimated values were less than 10% of the data analysis. The results obtained in this study indicate that the Clumped model could be used to directly estimate vine water requirements for a drip-irrigated vineyard trained on a VSP. However, application of the Clumped model requires a good characterization of the drip-irrigated vineyard architecture.     

Condition assessment of lamprey populations in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment,north‐east England,and the potential influence of physical migration barriers

• 1. River lamprey (Lampetra fluviatilis) and sea lamprey (Petromyzon marinus) are designated features of the River Derwent Special Area of Conservation (SAC) and the Humber Estuary (a possible SAC). This study determined the condition of lamprey populations in the Yorkshire Ouse catchment by assessing the species composition, distribution, abundance and size‐structure of larval (ammocoete) populations in five major tributary rivers (Derwent, Swale, Ure, Nidd and Wharfe).
• 2. According to EU condition assessment criteria, Lampetra populations (assumed to be mostly river lamprey) are at present in favourable condition, with site mean (±SE) densities ranging from 2.7 (±1.2) to 160.3 (±50.5) individuals m^?2 (all river means >2 individuals m^?2), and at least two size (≈age) classes present in optimal microhabitats. By contrast, no sea lamprey larvae were recorded, suggesting that populations of this species are in unfavourable condition.
• 3. Actions to protect and enhance nationally or internationally important stocks must be implemented from at least a catchment perspective, because many of the issues affecting such species are not localized. With respect to lampreys, particular attention should be given to protecting spawning and nursery habitats, improving water quality, reducing impingement at abstraction points, preventing exploitation at spawning grounds and increasing passage at potential physical obstructions.

Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Application of sperm cryopreservation in selective breeding of the Pacific oyster,Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg)

The robustness of Pacific oyster, Crassostrea gigas (Thunberg), sperm cryopreservation in the context of selective breeding based on family lines was investigated. Irrespective of egg density, high fertilization success was achieved with cryopreserved sperm when sperm:egg ratios of 1000:1 to 10 000:1 were used. Variation among replicate runs on the same oyster batches was minimal, indicating that cryopreservation and larval rearing procedures were repeatable. Twenty independent single male–female crosses were made to assess the utility of cryopreserved sperm in selective breeding. The fertility of unfrozen sperm was generally a poor predictor of cryopreserved sperm fertility. Based on D‐larval yields, 17 of the 20 crosses were likely to yield adequate spat for selective breeding (>10⁵ D‐larvae from 1 million eggs), two were marginal (5 × 10⁴ D‐larvae) and one was inadequate (4 × 10³ D‐larvae). An alternative fertilization strategy to improve D‐yield from a given number of sperm was then tested. Fertilizing 10 million eggs at a sperm:egg ratio of 200:1 increased the total D‐yield when compared with fertilizing 1 million eggs at a sperm:egg ratio of 2000:1 for the same male–female pair. We conclude that, despite wide variation in fertility, cryopreserved sperm is useful for family production.