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Past research has established that terminal buds of Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco) seedlings from many seed sources have a chilling requirement of about 1200 h at 0-5 degrees C; once chilled, temperatures > 5 degrees C force bud burst via accumulation of heat units. We tested this sequential bud-burst model in the field to determine whether terminal buds of trees in cooler microsites, which receive less heat forcing, develop more slowly than those in warmer microsites. For three years we monitored terminal bud development in young saplings as well as soil and air temperatures on large, replicated plots in a harvest unit; plots differed in microclimate based on amount of harvest residue and shade from neighboring stands. In two of three years, trees on cooler microsites broke bud 2 to 4 days earlier than those on warmer microsites, despite receiving less heat forcing from March to May each year. A simple sequential model did not predict cooler sites having earlier bud burst nor did it correctly predict the order of bud burst across the three years. We modified the basic heat-forcing model to initialize, or reset to zero, the accumulation of heat units whenever significant freezing temperature events (> or = 3 degree-hours day(-1) < 0 degrees C) occurred; this modified model correctly predicted the sequence of bud burst across years. Soil temperature alone or in combination with air temperature did not improve our predictions of bud burst. Past models of bud burst have relied heavily on data from controlled experiments with simple temperature patterns; analysis of more variable temperature patterns from our 3-year field trial, however, indicated that simple models of bud burst are inaccurate. More complex models that incorporate chilling hours, heat forcing, photoperiod and the occurrence of freeze events in the spring may be needed to predict effects of future silvicultural treatments as well to interpret the implications of climate-change scenarios. Developing and testing new models will require data from both field and controlled-environment experiments.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT Epidemiological modeling combined with parameter estimation of experimental data was used to examine differences in the contribution of disease-induced root production to the spread of take-all on plants of two representative yet contrasting cultivars of winter wheat, Ghengis and Savannah. A mechanistic model, including terms for primary infection, secondary infection, inoculum decay, and intrinsic and disease-induced root growth, was fitted to data describing changes in the numbers of infected and susceptible roots over time at a low or high density of inoculum. Disease progress curves were characterized by consecutive phases of primary and secondary infection. No differences in root growth were detected between cultivars in the absence of disease and root production continued for the duration of the experiment. However, significant differences in disease-induced root production were detected between Savannah and Genghis. In the presence of disease, root production for both cultivars was characterized by stimulation when few roots were infected and inhibition when many roots were infected. At low inoculum density, the transition from stimulation to inhibition occurred when an average of 5.0 and 9.0 roots were infected for Genghis and Savannah, respectively. At high inoculum density, the transition from stimulation to inhibition occurred when an average of 4.5 and 6.7 roots were infected for Genghis and Savannah, respectively. Differences in the rates of primary and secondary infection between Savannah and Genghis also were detected. At a low inoculum density, Genghis was marginally more resistant to secondary infection whereas, at a high density of inoculum, Savannah was marginally more resistant to primary infection. The combined effects of differences in disease-induced root growth and differences in the rates of primary and secondary infection meant that the period of stimulated root production was extended by 7 and 15 days for Savannah at a low and high inoculum density, respectively. The contribution of this form of epidemiological modeling to the better management of take-all is discussed.  相似文献   
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For the purpose of understanding better the mode of action of alkanes on insects, the relationship between mortality, weight loss in oxygen enriched atmospheres and dietary antioxidants was examined using an alkane, C15 Ampol CPD and a spray oil, C23 DC-Tron NR, on lightbrown apple moth, Epiphyas postvittana Walker, (LBAM). The results showed that the surfactant blend used in CPD was an insignificant contributor to the overall toxicity of dilute oil/water emulsions. Higher weight loss occurred in CPD-dipped larvae than C23 DC-Tron NR-dipped larvae, which suggests that alkanes disrupt tracheal waxes and render insects more prone to desiccation. High levels of oxygen increased the toxicity of CPD to LBAM larvae. In addition, dietary supplements of anti-oxidant, alpha-tocopherol, fed to LBAM larvae were successful in reducing the toxicity of CPD. These results suggest that the alkane may contribute to oxidative injury. The potential role of oil-induced oxidative stress in acute and chronic toxicity in insects is discussed.  相似文献   
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An investigation into the poisoning of birds with 1,1,1-trichloro-2, 2-di (4-chlorophenyl) ethane (DDT) on a fruit farm in South-East England is described. Pesticide levels in wild birds were sufficient to be held responsible for deaths. It is suggested that levels in samples of soil, earthworms, sludge, eggs, etc. did not indicate the source of the poisoning. Examination of caged birds following exposure to normal spraying indicated little hazard from this type of operation. Some discussion of the assessment of levels of intoxication is included.  相似文献   
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