A stochastic surplus production model in continuous time

Surplus production modelling has a long history as a method for managing data‐limited fish stocks. Recent advancements have cast surplus production models as state‐space models that separate random variability of stock dynamics from error in observed indices of biomass. We present a stochastic surplus production model in continuous time (SPiCT), which in addition to stock dynamics also models the dynamics of the fisheries. This enables error in the catch process to be reflected in the uncertainty of estimated model parameters and management quantities. Benefits of the continuous‐time state‐space model formulation include the ability to provide estimates of exploitable biomass and fishing mortality at any point in time from data sampled at arbitrary and possibly irregular intervals. We show in a simulation that the ability to analyse subannual data can increase the effective sample size and improve estimation of reference points relative to discrete‐time analysis of aggregated annual data. Finally, subannual data from five North Sea stocks are analysed with particular focus on using residual analysis to diagnose model insufficiencies and identify necessary model extensions such as robust estimation and incorporation of seasonality. We argue that including all known sources of uncertainty, propagation of that uncertainty to reference points and checking of model assumptions using residuals are critical prerequisites to rigorous fish stock management based on surplus production models.     

在不使用抗生素的肉鸡中发现了抗生素耐药性菌株

禁止在家禽饲料中添加抗生素对于减少对人类健康有潜在威胁的耐药性细菌几乎没有作用。来自美国的一个科研小组通过研究得出了以上惊人的结论。     

饲料加工对家禽生产性能的影响

菊粉(inulin)被认为是饲用抗生素潜在的替代物.在实际应用中不存在任何技术性问题.精细粉碎的全脂大豆和菊粉混合物被证明是幼龄肉火鸡开食阶段一种非常有前途的"提高质量"工具.     

掌握防治黑头病的新方法

由鞭毛组织滴虫(histomonas meleagridis)引起的组织滴虫病(或黑头病)是一种老病新发的禽病,此病除侵害盲肠和肝脏之外,还会侵害其他组织.此病的有效防治药物被禁用促使人们对此进行新的研究,并且已找到了可防止家禽爆发此病的新方法.