Analysis of horse movements from non-commercial horse properties in New Zealand

AIMS: To investigate property-level factors associated with the movement of horses from non-commercial horse properties, including the size and location of the property, number and reason for keeping horses.

METHODS: Using a cross-sectional survey 2,912 questionnaires were posted to randomly selected non-commercial horse properties listed in a rural property database. The survey collected information about the number of horses, and reasons for keeping horses on the property, and any movement of horses in the previous 12 months. Three property-level outcomes were investigated; the movement status of the property, the frequency of movement events, and the median distance travelled from a property. Associations were examined using logistic regression and Kruskal-Wallis analysis of variance.

RESULTS: In total 62.0% (488/791) of respondents reported at least one movement event in the year prior to the survey, for a total of 22,050 movement events. The number of movement events from a property varied significantly by the number of horses on the property (p<0.02), while the median distance travelled per property varied significantly by both region (p<0.03) and property size (p<0.01). Region, property size, the number of horses kept, and keeping horses for competition, recreation, racing or as pets were all significantly associated with movement status in the multivariable analyses (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: This study showed that there are characteristics of non-commercial horse properties that influence movement behaviour. During an exotic disease outbreak the ability to identify properties with these characteristics for targeted control will enhance the effectiveness of control measures.     

A Bayesian meta-analysis of the effects of administering an intra-vaginal (CIDR) device in combination with other hormones on the reproductive performance of cycling,anoestrous and inseminated cows

AIMS: To evaluate the effectiveness of treatment programmes that included controlled internal drug-releasing (CIDR) devices containing progesterone (P4) in improving synchrony of oe- strus, and conception and pregnancy rates in cycling, anoestrous and inseminated dairy cows, using meta-analysis. To describe the difference in response between cycling and anoestrous cows to CIDR-based synchrony programmes.

METHODS: Scientific papers written in the English language between 1989 and 2002 that investigated the effects of treat- ment programmes including CIDR devices on reproductive per- formance in dairy heifers or lactating dairy cows were identified using a computerised literature search. The criteria for inclusion incorporated evidence that treatment allocation was completely randomised; the population studied was lactating dairy cows; and that data were available on submission, conception and pregnancy rates and their associated measures of variability. Re- productive outcomes from 25 synchrony trials (total n= 11,058 cows) were analysed. Summary measures of the effect of treat- ment on reproductive outcome were assessed using fixed- and random-effects Bayesian meta-analysis models.

RESULTS: Treatment programmes including a CIDR device increased the risk of submission in cycling cows (predicted Bayesian RR=2.86, 95% credible interval 1.46–5.67). Compared with controls, synchrony programmes including CIDR devices in cycling dairy cows had no effect on the risk of conception to first service post-treatment (predicted Bayesian RR=1.00, 95% credible interval=0.80-1.24). Compared with controls, synchrony programmes including CIDR devices had no effect on the risk of pregnancy throughout the mating period (pre- dicted Bayesian RR=1.02, 95% credible interval=0.89-1.17). In anoestrous cows, CIDR treatment had no effect on the risk of conception to first service post-treatment and no effect on the risk of pregnancy throughout the mating period, compared with anoestrous, untreated controls (predicted Bayesian RR=0.91 and 0.97, respectively; 95% credible interval=0.68–1.26 and 0.59-1.60, respectively).

CONCLUSION: The results of this meta-analysis showed that synchrony programmes using CIDR devices combined with other hormones reliably enhanced submission rates in lactat- ing dairy cows. The relatively small number of trials with data suitable for analysis and the heterogeneity of results at the indi- vidual trial level limited our ability to confirm either a beneficial or deleterious effect of treatment on conception or pregnancy rates. Further randomised, controlled trials to evaluate the ef- fectiveness of this form of reproductive therapy in commercial dairy farms are needed.     

Descriptive spatial epidemiology of subclinical Salmonella infection in finisher pig herds: application of a novel method of spatially adaptive smoothing

We describe the spatial epidemiological features of the 6.8 million meat-juice serological tests that were conducted between 1995 and 2004 as part of the Danish swine Salmonella control programme. We investigated pig and farm density using edge-corrected kernel estimations. Pigs were aggregated at the county level to assess county-level risk, and then we investigated farm-level risk by giving farms a case or non-case label using a cut-off of 40% of pigs positive. Conditional probability surfaces, correcting for the underlying population at risk, were produced for each year of the study period using a novel kernel estimator with a spatially adaptive smoothing bandwidth. This approach improves on previous methods by allowing focussed estimation of risk in areas of high population density while maintaining stable estimates in regions where the data are sparse. Two spatial trends in the conditional probability of a farm being a case were evident: (1) over the whole country, with the highest risk in the west compared to the east; and (2) on the Jutland peninsula with the highest risk in the north and south. At the farm-level a consistent area of risk was the south-west of Jutland. Case farms tended to aggregate indicating spatial dependency in the data. We found no association between pig or farm density and Salmonella risk. We generated hypotheses for this spatial pattern of risk and we conclude that this spatial pattern should be considered in the development of surveillance strategies and as a basis for further, more detailed analyses of the data.     

Economic effect of pneumonia and pleurisy in lambs in New Zealand

AIM: To estimate the cost of pneumonia and pleurisy in lambs to the sheep industry in New Zealand, in order to provide a reference for future cost-benefit calculations for control programmes to reduce the incidence of pneumonia. METHODS: An estimate of the economic cost of pneumonia and pleurisy in lambs was based on: cohort studies of the association between growth rate and the extent of pneumonic lesions at slaughter (n=14 flocks), the prevalence of moderate to severe (MS) pneumonia (> or =10% lung surface area affected) and pleurisy (n=1,719 flocks), the correlation between the prevalence of MS pneumonia and economic loss at the flock level, and data on annual slaughter statistics and carcass value in New Zealand. A stochastic spreadsheet model was developed and run with 1,000 iterations. Input variables represented by probability distributions were growth rate, average cost of loss according to the prevalence of pneumonia per month, carcass value, prevalence of pleurisy, and carcasses downgraded for pleurisy, and annual national slaughter statistics. The output was a posterior distribution of the annual cost of disease. RESULTS: The cost of pneumonia only included the loss associated with reduced growth rate, while mortality due to pneumonia was assumed to be low and was ignored. The cost of pleurisy included the loss associated with downgraded or condemned carcasses. Thus, the simulated annual average cost of pneumonia was NZ$28.1 (95% CI=NZ$15.0-42.0) million, and that of pleurisy NZ$25.1 (95% CI=NZ$10.2-48.1) million. The combined cost of pneumonia and pleurisy averaged NZ$53.2 (95% CI=NZ$32.4-78.9) million. The parameters with the greatest impact on the combined cost of pneumonia and pleurisy were prevalence of pleurisy between March and May, and cost of reduced growth due to pneumonia for lambs slaughtered in June. CONCLUSIONS: The average cost of pneumonia and pleurisy to the sheep industry in New Zealand due to reduced lamb growth and decreased carcass value is likely to be between NZ$32.4 and $78.9 million. This is a conservative estimate, omitting mortalities, indicating that pneumonia and pleurisy have substantial economic impact on sheep farming in New Zealand. Considering that 23,833,000 lambs were slaughtered in 2003/2004 (average value $65.56/lamb), this cost would equate to NZ$1.36-3.31 per lamb. CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Pneumonia and pleurisy are common diseases in lambs in New Zealand, leading to substantial economic loss to producers.