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When few data or information are available, the validity of studies performing uncertainty analysis or robust design optimisation (i.e., parameter optimisation under uncertainty) with a probabilistic approach is questionable. This is particularly true in some agronomical fields, where parameter and variable uncertainties are often quantified by a handful of measurements or by expert opinions. In this paper, we propose a simple alternative approach based on interval analysis, which avoids the pitfalls of a classical probabilistic approach. We propose simple methods to achieve uncertainty propagation, parameter optimisation and sensitivity analysis in cases where the model satisfies some monotonic properties. As a real-world case study, we interest ourselves to the application developed in our laboratory that has motivated the present work, that is the design of sustainable food packaging preserving fresh fruits and vegetables as long as possible.  相似文献   
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In control dough, endogenous wheat lipase was inactive, because the triacylglycerol (TAG), 1,2-diacylglycerol (DAG1,2), and 1,3-diacylglycerol (DAG1,3) fractions of nonpolar lipids were not affected by mixing. Conversely, the free fatty acid (FFA) and monoacylglycerol (MAG) fractions decreased, mainly due to the oxidation of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) catalyzed by wheat lipoxygenase. Addition of exogenous lipase to flour (15 lipase units [LU] per gram of dry matter) resulted in substantial modification of nonpolar lipids during dough mixing. Due to the 1,3 specificity of the lipase used in this experiment, the TAG and DAG1,3 fractions decreased, whereas the MAG and FFA fractions increased. The DAG1,2 fraction increased at the beginning of mixing and decreased after 40 min of mixing. Moreover, part of the PUFA released by lipase activity was oxidized by wheat lipoxygenase, resulting in major losses of PUFA. Conversely, the net content of the saturated and monounsaturated fatty acids (SMUFA) remained constant, because the free SMUFA content increased primarily at the expense of the esterified forms. For a constant mixing time of 20 min, increasing the amount of lipase added to dough (from 2.5 to 25 LU/g of dry matter) resulted in a linear decrease in the TAG fraction and a linear increase in the SMUFA content in the FFA fraction. At the same time, the PUFA content of the FFA fraction increased only for additions of lipase to flour of >5 LU/g of dry matter, due to partial oxidation by wheat lipoxygenase.  相似文献   
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A behaviour-based model was used to explore the effect of an extension of the port at Le Havre (Port 2000), and the effect of proposed mitigation measures, on the mortality and body condition of the three main shorebird species that overwinter in the estuary of the river Seine, France. In the model, a 20% reduction in the area of mudflats on the north side of the estuary had little effect on curlew Numenius arquata mortality and body condition but significantly increased mortality and decreased body condition in dunlin Calidris alpina and oystercatchers Haematopus ostralegus. Disturbance of feeding birds both day and night had a significant effect on the mortality and body condition of all three shorebird species, as did disturbance of roosting birds. Disturbance of feeding birds in the daytime only had a significant effect on dunlin mortality and body condition, but not that of curlew and oystercatchers. In the model, the creation of a buffer zone to reduce disturbance of feeding birds restored shorebird mortality and body condition to pre-disturbance levels. A new mudflat area was also effective in mitigating the effect of habitat loss on all three shorebirds and in mitigating the effect of roost disturbance on dunlin and curlew. However, a new mudflat area was not effective in mitigating the effect of roost disturbance on oystercatcher mortality and body condition. The effectiveness of the mitigating mudflat depended as much on its size as its quality. We believe that this is the first time that anyone has been able to forecast the efficacy of proposed mitigation measures.  相似文献   
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OBJECTIVE: To determine results of intracranial meningioma resection by use of a surgical aspirator and assess prognostic factors associated with intracranial meningiomas in dogs. DESIGN: Retrospective case series. ANIMALS: 17 dogs. PROCEDURES: Medical records of dogs that underwent resection of an intracranial meningioma by use of a surgical aspirator were reviewed. Information pertaining to signalment, imaging findings, clinical signs, duration of clinical signs, preoperative treatment, location of the tumor, results of histologic assessment, outcome, and necropsy results was obtained from the medical record. Clients and referring veterinarians were contacted via telephone for information on recurrence of clinical signs and postoperative survival time. RESULTS: 16 dogs were > 7 years of age, and all 17 dogs had seizures before surgery. The most commonly affected breed was the Golden Retriever, represented by 6 of the 17 dogs. Median survival time was 1,254 days. Of the data collected, only histologic subtype of the tumor was prognostic. Analysis of survival times according to histologic tumor subtypes indicated that the order from most brief to longest was as follows: anaplastic, 0 days; fibroblastic, 10 days; psammomatous, > 313 days; meningothelial, > 523 days; and transitional, 1,254 days. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Use of a surgical aspirator to resect intracranial meningiomas in dogs was associated with longer survival times than those achieved with traditional surgery alone or traditional surgery combined with radiation therapy. Dogs with meningothelial, psammomatous, or transitional intracranial meningioma subtypes appeared to have a better prognosis than dogs with other subtypes of meningioma.  相似文献   
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