Tracking the long-term decline and recovery of an isolated population

Effects of small population size and reduced genetic variation on the viability of wild animal populations remain controversial. During a 35-year study of a remnant population of greater prairie chickens, population size decreased from 2000 individuals in 1962 to fewer than 50 by 1994. Concurrently, both fitness, as measured by fertility and hatching rates of eggs, and genetic diversity declined significantly. Conservation measures initiated in 1992 with translocations of birds from large, genetically diverse populations restored egg viability. Thus, sufficient genetic resources appear to be critical for maintaining populations of greater prairie chickens.     

A survey to investigate movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand,with reference to the potential transmission of foot-and-mouth disease

AIM: To quantify the numbers and extent of movements off sheep and cattle farms in New Zealand, in order to construct more realistic simulation models to investigate how infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) might spread.

METHODS: Farmers from 500 randomly selected farms, comprising 100 from each of the following sectors, viz beef, dairy, grazing/dairy heifer rearing, sheep, and mixed sheep and beef, were asked to fill in diaries in which they recorded the movements of all animals, products, people, vehicles and equipment coming on to or leaving their farms during two separate 3-week periods, representing relatively ‘busy’ and ‘quiet’ times of the year with respect to livestock movements. Where possible, the destination of each movement was identified and geo-coded, to allow the distance travelled to be calculated. Each movement was then classified according to the risk of transfer of FMD virus (FMDV), should the disease have been present on the study farm at the time of the movement. The data were then analysed to establish movement frequencies and distributions of distances travelled, by the different pastoral livestock sectors.

RESULTS: Two hundred and seventeen farmers returned one or more diaries. One hundred and ninety-three farmers completed a Busy-period diary, recording a total of 12,052 movements off their farms, a crude average of 62.4 per 3-week period, or 2.97 per day. Of these, 4.0% involved the transport of livestock, equating to 0.12 livestock consignments per day. In contrast, 186 Quiet-period diaries were returned, recording a total of 10,885 movements off, representing a crude average of 58.5 during the 3-week period, or 2.78 per day. Of these, 2.1% involved livestock, equating to 0.06 livestock consignments per day. The mean and median distances travelled during the Busy periods were 30.9 km and 13.1 km, respectively (range 0–1,167 km). In comparison, the mean and median distances travelled during Quiet periods were 41.3 and 14 km, respectively (range 0.4–1,203 km).

CONCLUSIONS: People, vehicles, livestock and other items can travel off pastoral livestock farms in New Zealand to other farms either directly or via saleyards over extensive distances. This has implications for the potential spread of infectious diseases such as FMD. Movement parameters intended for use in the InterSpread Plus inter-farm simulation model of FMD were established, which will facilitate the prediction of likely spread and efficacy of controls in the unlikely event of a real-life outbreak.     

A comparison of predictions made by three simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease

AIMS: To describe results of a relative validation exercise using the three simulation models of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in use by the quadrilateral countries (QUADS; Australia, Canada, New Zealand, and United States of America; USA).

METHODS: A hypothetical population of farms was constructed and, following the introduction of an FMD-like disease into a single farm, spread of disease was simulated using each of the three FMD simulation models used by the QUADS countries. A series of 11 scenarios was developed to systematically evaluate the key processes of disease transmission and control used by each of the three models. The predicted number of infected units and the size of predicted outbreak areas for each scenario and each model were compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Agreement among the three models in terms of geographical areas predicted to become infected were quantified using Fleiss' Kappa statistic.

RESULTS: Although there were statistically significant differences in model outputs in terms of the numbers of units predicted to become infected, the temporal onset of infection throughout the simulation period, and the spatial distribution of infected units, these differences were generally small and would have resulted in the same (or similar) management decisions being adopted in each case.

CONCLUSIONS: Agreement among the three models in terms of the numbers of premises predicted to become infected, the temporal onset of infection throughout the simulation period, and the spatial distribution of infected premises provides evidence that each of the model developers are consistent in their approach to simulating the spread of disease throughout a population of susceptible individuals. This consistency implies that the assumptions taken by each development team are appropriate, which in turn serves to increase end-user confidence in model predictions.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Relative validation is one of a number of steps that can be undertaken to increase end-user confidence in predictions made by infectious disease models.     

Simulation modelling as a tool for evaluating surveillance programmes for detection of the Asian honeybee mite (Varroa destructor) in the South Island of New Zealand

AIM: To use a simulation model of the spread of the Asian honeybee mite (Varroa destructor) amongst apiaries, to evaluate a series of detection surveillance programmes for the South Island of New Zealand.

METHODS: Five potential incursion sites into the South Island were selected. A stochastic spatial simulation model, Varroa_sim, was adapted to simulate spread of the mite from these sites as a series of silent-phase propagating epidemics. The study population comprised all apiaries in the South Island registered in the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry's (MAF's) apiary database in 2003. Six different surveillance programmes were simulated to try and detect the mite. Three of these were the actual multi-stage sampling plans conducted during the autumn (March–May) of 2001, 2002 and 2003, and the other three involved simple random sampling with sampling fractions equivalent to the actual numbers of apiaries tested in each of those years. The relative performances of the different surveillance plans were evaluated in terms of their ability to detect the mite early before it had spread too far and whilst there might still be a chance of eradication.

RESULTS: There were 13,798 registered apiaries in the South Island with valid map coordinates in the apiary database at the time of the study. The model generated 50 epidemics against which the various surveillance programmes were evaluated. The actual surveillance programmes conducted during the autumn of 2001 and 2002 generally performed fairly well in detecting the mite. The programme conducted in autumn 2003 detected the mite reasonably well in high-risk areas, but was very poor in low-risk areas. The simple random sampling strategies performed surprisingly well, and their relative rankings were proportional to the sampling fractions employed.

CONCLUSIONS: This study showed the value in using a spatial simulation model to generate plausible silent-phase epidemics, against which detection surveillance programmes could be evaluated, in ways that would otherwise not be possible.     

Oxidative Stress During Pregnancy In The Sheep

During physiological pregnancy, all tissues and, mostly, placenta and foetus require high amounts of oxygen. Reactive oxygen species (ROS), generated both by mother and foetus, are implicated in foetal growth because they promote replication, differentiation and maturation of cells and organs. Nevertheless, ROS excess, if not properly counterbalanced, may lead to an alteration in cell constituents, with harmful effects both on mother and foetus.ROS exert a biphasic effect because adequate ROS concentration is essential for embryo development, implant, foetal defence against uterine infections, steroidogenesis, pregnancy maintainance and partum. On the other hand, an uncontrolled ROS generation, beyond physiological antioxidant defences, may lead to embryo resorption, placental degeneration with subsequent alteration in maternal‐foetal exchanges, delay in foetal growth, pregnancy interruption, stillbirths. This review investigates the mechanisms underlying ROS generation and effects, throughout physiological and pathological pregnancy in sheep, with a look to antioxidants and their importance in such a critical phase of the reproductive cycle of the sheep.     

Vaginal isolation of beta‐haemolytic Streptococcus from bitches with and without neonatal deaths in the litters

The aim of the study was to identify beta‐haemolytic streptococci in the vagina of bitches who had delivered healthy litters and bitches who had delivered litters in which neonatal deaths occurred. Fifty‐one bitches divided into two groups were used. Group 1 (G1) included 28 bitches that had delivered healthy litters and group 2 (G2) included 23 bitches that had delivered puppies who died in the neonatal period. Two vaginal samples were taken, one in proestrus and the other at the end of gestation (EG). Beta‐haemolytic Streptococcus (BS) was isolated from 16 bitches (57%) in G1 and from 21 bitches (91%) in G2. The bacteriological cultures, serological tests (Streptex^®) and PCR assay allowed identification of Streptococcus canis and Streptococcus dysgalactiae in G1 and G2. Ultramicroscopic studies allowed the observation of M Protein and capsules in strains of S. dysgalactiae and S. canis in G1 and G2. The S. canis strains isolated from G2 showed thicker capsules than S. canis strains isolated from G1 (234 ± 24.2 vs 151.23 ± 28.93 nm; p < .001.). No differences were observed in capsule thickness between strains of S. dysgalactiae isolated from G1 and G2 (210 ± 13.54 vs 211.66 ± 19.67 nm; p > .70). All strains of beta‐haemolytic Streptococcus isolated were penicillin sensitive. Penicillin was administered from EG to 5 days post‐partum in 10 G2 females with isolation of BS (G2A). Saline solution was administered in eleven G2 females with isolation of BS (G2B). Ninety per cent of the puppies survived in G2A and 25% survived in G2B. Our results suggest BS is involved in canine neonatal deaths.     

Antral Follicle Populations and Embryo Production – In Vitro and In Vivo – of Bos indicus–taurus Donors from Weaning to Yearling Ages

Interest in indicus–taurus cattle has been increasing, as these animals are likely to present the best characteristics of Zebu and European bovine breeds. The aim of this study was to compare the embryo production of indicus–taurus donors with high vs low antral follicle counts obtained by ovum pickup/in vitro production (OPU/IVP) and superovulation (SOV)/embryo collection. Braford females at weaning age (3/8 Nelore × 5/8 Hereford, n = 137, 9 ± 1 month old) were subjected to six serial ovarian ultrasonographs and were assigned to two groups according to the number of antral follicles ≥3 mm as follows: G‐High antral follicular count (AFC, n = 20, mean ≥40 follicles) and G‐Low AFC (n = 20, mean ≤10 follicles). When the females (n = 40) reached 24 months of age, they were subjected to both OPU/IVP and SOV/embryo collection. The average number of follicles remained highly stable throughout all of the ultrasound evaluations (range 0.90–0.92). The mean number of COCs recovered (36.90 ± 13.68 vs 5.80 ± 3.40) was higher (p < 0.05) for females with high AFC, resulting in higher (p < 0.05) numbers of total embryos among females with high vs low AFC (6.10 ± 4.51 vs 0.55 ± 0.83). The mean number of embryos per collection was also higher (p < 0.05) for G‐High vs G‐Low (6.95 ± 5.34 vs 1.9 ± 2.13). We conclude that a single ultrasound performed at pre‐pubertal ages to count antral follicles can be used as a predictor of embryo production following IVP and SOV/embryo collection in indicus–taurus females.