A Markov chain approach to crop yield forecasting

This study proposes a methodology for forecasting crop yields at intermediate times in the growing season using Markov chain theory. A Markov chain is constructed, based on historical data, to provide forecast distributions of crop yield for various crop and soil moisture condition classes at selected times prior to harvest. Expected yield and the associated standard error are obtained for each condition class. The methodology is compared to a regression approach in which the independent variables are the various crop and soil moisture conditions. The Markov chain approach requires less stringent assumptions and provides more information than the regression approach. However, the potential loss of precision in the forecast using this approach requires separate evaluation for each application. A data base created by the CERES-Maize model, which simulates the growth and development of a corn crop, is used to demonstrate the development of the forecast yield distributions using the Markov chain approach.     

Plus tree of Cryptomeria japonica D. Don with a heterozygous male-sterility gene

To find plus tree clones of Cryptomeria japonica that are heterozygous for a male-sterility gene (Aa), we crossed a homozygous male-sterile tree (aa) with 63 clones. Male sterility in this case is controlled by a recessive allele at a single gene locus and is expressed only in homozygotes. All F₁ seedlings obtained by crossing the male-sterile mother tree and 62 out of the 63 clones produced pollen. In contrast, F₁ seedlings obtained from the crossing between the male-sterile mother tree and a plus tree clone, Ohara 13, produced 64 male-sterile individuals and 52 fertile individuals. The segregation ratio fitted the expected 1 : 1 ratio according to a chi-square test. These results clearly demonstrate that the Ohara 13 clone is heterozygous for a male-sterility gene.     

Effects of a severe typhoon on forest dynamics in a warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest in southwestern Japan

The effects of a typhoon on forest dynamics and the response of major tree species were studied in a warm-temperate evergreen broad-leaved forest in southwestern Japan. The strongest typhoon on record (T9313) passed through this region in 1993. Return periods of typhoons over 30 ms⁻¹ in instantaneous wind velocity and T9313 were estimated to be 2.2 and 104.5 years, respectively. Approximately 10% of all stems suffered some damage from T9313 and annual stem mortality rose from 1.3 to 2.7%. The estimated period that the number of stems would fall below 10% of the initial was four years shorter with T9313-class typhoons than without them. Thus, the disturbance by T9313 was not catastrophic at the site although T9313 was an episodic typhoon. The short-term responses of major tree species to T9313 were classified into four types: 1) blunt-response type with little decrease and recruitment of stems in the DBH ≥ 5 cm class (Distylium racemosum), 2) retreat type with larger decrease than recruitment (e.g. Quercus acuta), 3) sharp-response type with a large decrease and much recruitment (e.g. Cinnamomum japonicum), and 4) advance type with less decrease than recruitment (Eurya japonica). Among the four regeneration types classified by previous studies (climax, light-demanding, subcanopy, and few-sapling), the climax and few-sapling types each showed a specific short-term response, the blunt-response and retreat types, respectively, that explains one aspect of the regeneration strategies of each type. On the other hand, the light-demanding or sub-canopy type showed multiple short-term responses, indicating that each regeneration type contains species with various regeneration strategies. In this paper, I analyzed data from the database that was compiled by the Aya Research Team.     

Effects of heat treatment on brittleness of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Styrax tonkinensis</Emphasis> wood

A new approach is proposed for the evaluation of the brittleness of heat-treated Styrax tonkinensis wood. Heat treatment made wood more brittle when wood was heated at a higher temperature or for a longer time. The brittleness increased to four times that of the control when wood was heated at 200°C for 12 h. For treatment at 160°C, the increase in brittleness without any change in weight is thought to be possibly caused by the relocation of lignin molecules. At higher temperatures, loss of amorphous polysaccharides due to degradation is thought to become the main factor affecting brittleness. The crystallites that were newly formed after 2 h of treatment showed brittleness that was different from that of the inherent crystallites remaining after 12 h of heat treatment. This inherent crystalline cellulose possibly plays a role in brittleness. There is also the possibility of using color to predict the brittleness of heat-treated wood.     

Genetic diversity of Populus euphratica populations in northwestern China determined by RAPD DNA analysis

Five Populus euphratica Oliver populations in northwestern China were analyzed using RAPD DNA markers to determine genetic diversity among and within populations. One hundred-and-five polymorphic bands were observed, ranging in size from 250 bp to 1700 bp, using 10 primers. Only one population on the north side of the Tianshern Range had a unique band common to all individuals that was not found in individuals from populations in the Tarim River valley. Intra-population genetic diversity was high in two populations along the Tarim River and low in the other three populations. There was no significant correlation between genetic distances and geographic distances. The result of correspondence analysis shows that the individuals from the three populations with low genetic diversity are isolated from each other. The result of cluster analysis based on genetic distance shows that the population in the Tianshern Range is genetically distant from the other populations. These results suggest that the Tianshern Range population was genetically isolated from the other populations.     

Variations in the morphology of Rhizomucor pusillus in granulomatous lesions of a Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus)

This report presents a new case of mucormycosis encountered in penguin characterized by morphological variation of hyphae and presence of sporangia with numerous sporangiospores. A 4.5-year-old Magellanic penguin (Spheniscus magellanicus) died after exhibiting anorexia, poor nutritional condition and dyspnea. Multiple nodular lesions were observed in the thoracic and abdominal regions. Histopathologically, hyphae of various sizes were seen in the lungs, air sac and nodular lesions. Myriad sporangiospores and several sporangia were observed in/around the bronchi or parabronchi. The very narrow and short hyphae in the nodules were not consistent with the characteristics of Mucorales. However, for most hyphae, including those in the nodules, sporangiospores and sporangia, immunohistochemistry revealed Mucorales-positive reactions. In addition, these fungi were identified as Rhizomucor pusillus by gene analysis.     

Numerical and experimental study on the risk of paddy field damage due to river bank breach during serious floods

Paddy and Water Environment - In Japan, paddy fields located adjacent to rivers are a familiar landscape in rural areas, and they are divided from rivers by soil banks. Soil banks are easily...